El Brujo Does It Again: Javier Assad's Mysterious Magic Keeps Saving Cubs from Themselves

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

The previous Cub who went by 'Javy' also went by another name. Javier Báez cast gasp-inducing and delightful spells all over the diamond, from optical-illusion-quick tags around second base to now-you-see-it, now-you-don't slides on the bases. His nickname, 'El Mago', was a celebration of the way he seemed to want to entertain, as much as to win.

Javier Assad is dabbling in darker magic. He casts some devastating spells over the game in his own right, but they feel a bit more worrisome. Like so many great stage acts, Báez titillated you with a wink and a smile. You knew the only real 'magic' was his genius. Assad is one of those street magicians whose act feels less sustainable and more enigmatic. He can't actually be communing with some force beyond our ken, or his... or can he? It raises the hairs on your arm. Sometimes, you wish he'd stop.

This is magic that doesn't have a punchline. There's no moment of exhilaration, when he fools a hitter so badly that they fall over or blow a pitch by them at triple-digit velocity. He's not as physically entertaining as Báez. No, Assad's magic all shows up in the numbers, in all the ways you've been trained to believe are unsustainable. You've even been taught to mistrust and/or dislike pitchers who thrive this way. But you can't bring yourself to dislike Assad, can you? So, what does that say about you?

Here are the black-magic numbers in question. Even before entering in a pinch on Tuesday night and firing three shutout innings against the White Sox, batters facing Assad had the following splits for his career.

By outs in the inning:

• 0 Outs: .249/.326/.444
• 1 Out: .267/.333/.442
• 2 Outs: .206/.287/.307

By runners on base:

• Bases Empty: .260/.332/.447
• Men On: .217/.295/.339
• Runners in Scoring Position: .168/.247/.256

By Leverage Index:

• Low Leverage: .247/.326/.423
• Medium Leverage: .256/.319/.421
• High Leverage: .182/.280/.278

The samples involved aren't huge, of course, but nor are they tiny. Tuesday's was Assad's 100th career appearance, spangled across five seasons, and he's done all of this remarkably consistently throughout. He has a career ERA of 3.46; he has a 2026 ERA of 3.46.

In Spanish, 'mago' is the name for a Báez-style magician—a showman and a dazzler. For those who seem to truly meddle with forces that ought not be meddled with, the better word is 'brujo'—a witch or sorcerer. That's what Assad is. 

You don't have to believe that his knack for escaping jams and coming up clutch is real, of course. In fact, it's extremely hard to buy into his profile in a far-seeing way, which is why the Cubs are always, always trying to replace him. He's only getting this latest shot to be on the roster because Edward Cabrera is hurt again. He only made an emergency appearance Tuesday night because Kevin Gausman's thumb cramped up in a strange and hideous sort of way, forcing an early departure. Statistically, it's unlikely that Assad keeps being this guy over a full career, and because modern teams run on what the stats tell them, it's unlikely that he even gets many more chances to have a full career. 

Assad's stuff ratings and his peripheral numbers (walks, strikeouts, hard-hit rates) all suggest the same thing as these splits, too: that there's regression ahead. He's not succeeding in a traditional way in terms of movement or velocity or missing bats, any more than in terms of when he succeeds and when he fails. He's allowed just a .272 career BABIP, and that number is .237 this year, but it's not at all easy to articulate how. He can't keep getting away with this.

Right now, though, the Cubs are trying to catch the best team in baseball in their division, and strange setbacks keep afflicting many of their other pitching options. For now, there are much worse ways they could go than to place some trust in El Brujo. Nothing ever goes wrong when someone desperate for a particular outcome turns to black magic for help, right?

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[Andre and Ryno]

My main theory is that his deep mix of pitches all tunnel extremely well, and the tunneling induces better-than-average weak contact that gets him out of jams.  He's also at the top of the charts in not giving up pulled balls in the air--the tunneling helps with that--so even when he gets hit hard the ball dies at the 380ft mark in centerfield.  Among regular starters, the only guy who has a lower percentage of pulled balls in the air is Max Fried.  Then Javy Assad.  Then Jacob Misiorowski.  Not bad!  Assad has had an excellent pulled-air percentage throughout his career, so it's not a fluke.  He still gives up home runs and hard contact, but he avoids the most damaging category of hard contact.

The stats about doing better with runners on base suggest two possibilities.  First, he pitches better out of the stretch than the windup.  Some guys just do better out of the stretch.  I even recall a few pitchers that started pitching out of the stretch even with the bases empty.  Second, he pitches better when he has to pause a little more between pitches, as opposed to bases empty when his tempo is extremely fast and he kind of grips it and rips it.  Maybe slowing down a bit helps him focus.  Or maybe the slight distraction of the runner helps him not overthink the pitch.

Also, very speculative, but i'd be interested in exploring potential mental/physical crossover in high-leverage situations.  Does he subconsciously focus more in high-leverage situations such that those pitches are faster, or move more, or have better spin, or tunnel better, or whatever?  Maybe the team has that kind of granular data.

I do think we're at the point where maybe there really just is an actual physical explanation for the results.  I think interviews with hitters would be needed to confirm the tunneling theory, and the team might have better data to test out different possibilities.  Also very possible regression is coming soon.  Also very possible it's sorcery!

 

 

 

[mk49]

Aside from his magic, what I like about him this season is his walk rate.  It's improved a lot.  

My brother kept telling me Javy is our ace.  Obviously, it's a joke, but Javy is no joke.  When the Cubs traded for Gausman, I posted "Gausman hasn't pitched well for 2 months, and I don't even know if he's better than Assad."  A guy replied, and said something like you're out of your mind.  After seeing Gausman as a Cub three times, I still don't know if he'll better than Javy.  Obviously, I'm hoping I'll be wrong.

I might be overrating Javy, but IMO, he's a very good pitcher, and I think many people are underrating him, because of those stats.  If you see just the results, he's been good.  And, he's been doing that for long time.

Edited 48 minutes ago by mk49