Draft Pick Signings

[craig]

Yeah, barring an unanticipated injury they'll sign them all.  Price tags are so predetermined, no reason for any surprises.  Certainly no surprises likely from the 10-20 picks.  

[Named After Maddux]

Blomker coming in around $900k (I thought they were saying $900k overslot) is really nice

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[craig]

Thanks for all the numbers.  

Tangent, but I love the modern system, with slots, pre-listed price tags, and the fast signing deadline.   I'm old enough to remember back to the year they signed Dunston Jr.  No cap; no slots; no deadlines.  For unsigned guys, both wondering when their individual colleges have first day of class, and if the guy actually went, or delayed going to class to leverage a better bonus offer.  (The earlier draft, where guys could play their draft summer, and even pitchers would pitch some innings, I liked that better just to get a look.)  But yeah, this no-nonsense, quick completion of the signings, I love it.  

[craig]

So, that wraps up all the picks rounds 1-10.  Per Savermetrics, 17th rounder Ryan Marton has also signed, $50K over.  He's the huge UNLV guy with a Missou commit, older junior who turn 22 in September, had a high college ERA (>6. ) Savermetrics figures Cubs to have ~$160K discretionary left for >10th-rounders.  

 

[Cubs420psd]

Any chance we see Townsend pitch this year? Maybe a couple starts in Mrytle mid to late August?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

2 minutes ago, Cubs420psd said:

Any chance we see Townsend pitch this year? Maybe a couple starts in Mrytle mid to late August?

No chance

[Outshined_One]

10 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

No chance

I'm legitimately curious how many draftees we see in-game this season, even with the ACL squad.

Of the position players, we're almost certainly going to see Sorrell, Nunez, and Hudson; maybe Hernandez in the ACL, unless they really want to drill down on some things.  Otherwise, Bailey is recovering from surgery and won't be seen until next year.

On the pitching side, Morton's out post-TJS and I can see them taking it easy on Townsend.  Guys like Jasa, Blomker, and Marionneaux will probably be off to the pitch lab.  We'll probably see the senior guys like Alwood and Arvidson, but after that?  Kinda hard to tell at this point.

[Named After Maddux]

19 hours ago, craig said:

So, that wraps up all the picks rounds 1-10.  Per Savermetrics, 17th rounder Ryan Marton has also signed, $50K over.  He's the huge UNLV guy with a Missou commit, older junior who turn 22 in September, had a high college ERA (>6. ) Savermetrics figures Cubs to have ~$160K discretionary left for >10th-rounders.  

 

It sounds like Hernandez will be a $300k bonus. I had heard there was a $200k and a $300k overslot in 11-20 so that's my guess now that Marton took the $200k. Really like how DK structures these. Picking this late still felt like they could maneuver around decently well.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1 hour ago, Outshined_One said:

I'm legitimately curious how many draftees we see in-game this season, even with the ACL squad.

Of the position players, we're almost certainly going to see Sorrell, Nunez, and Hudson; maybe Hernandez in the ACL, unless they really want to drill down on some things.  Otherwise, Bailey is recovering from surgery and won't be seen until next year.

On the pitching side, Morton's out post-TJS and I can see them taking it easy on Townsend.  Guys like Jasa, Blomker, and Marionneaux will probably be off to the pitch lab.  We'll probably see the senior guys like Alwood and Arvidson, but after that?  Kinda hard to tell at this point.

The ACL season ends this week. 

[Outshined_One]

1 hour ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

The ACL season ends this week. 

[craig]

4 hours ago, Named After Maddux said:

It sounds like Hernandez will be a $300k bonus. I had heard there was a $200k and a $300k overslot in 11-20 so that's my guess now that Marton took the $200k. Really like how DK structures these. Picking this late still felt like they could maneuver around decently well.

Thanks.  Yeah, if there's a $300, it's obviously Hernandez and that would put them right near the overslot cap. 

Deadline next Monday, but no real reason why these shouldn't all roll in as quickly as the guys can get in for the physicals, execute the formal signings, and have official news releases.  With all of the top-10 signed including the underslots, no need for Hernandez to wait on his overslot.  Sometimes signing reports are slow; not that newsworthy for a 15th-round college guy to sign for the $150 slot. 

I agree, it's fun for Kantro save a little bit of discretionary to overslot a couple of ≥11th rounders.

I like NOT going extreme subslot on the 7-10th rounds.  I'm old enough to remember Happ draft, rounds 6-10 were all <$50K guys, three ≤5K.  They quickly confirmed their price tags and confirmed that they were total non-prospects.  This draft, Kantro has Alwood pretty low at only $50K, but 7th-9th rounds are all $204-220 deals for pitchers with plausible developmental pathways to big-league relief roles.  Not throw-away picks.  

Edited July 20 by craig

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Based on Wes tweets, the Cubs have signed all their picks.

[Named After Maddux]

Sounds like Ariston Veasey is the $300k guy. Makes that Hernandez pick pretty impressive.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

$300k means Veasey got the 8th biggest bonus from the Cubs this year. Only the guys from rounds 1-6 got more.

[craig]

Veasey just turned 21 on Saturday.  And has pitched very little.  Plenty of time to develop into a very different pitcher than he showed during his small-sample 31 college innings.  

[Named After Maddux]

They obviously value Tyler Zombro and if you promoted him to keep him from going to another club then you needed to see if a Zombro-focused draft would produce results. No half measures. No “is this a DK guy or a TZ guy?” They went all in with pitchers Zombro believes they can develop. Especially the arms in the first 12 rounds. Toss in Marton and a smattering of later round picks, they put in the effort to give Zombro a class to oversee development. Obviously it’s now on his team to get results but it’s encouraging that scouting and player development were in complete lockstep. We’ve been asking for that for years.

[Jason Ross]

24 minutes ago, Named After Maddux said:

They obviously value Tyler Zombro and if you promoted him to keep him from going to another club then you needed to see if a Zombro-focused draft would produce results. No half measures. No “is this a DK guy or a TZ guy?” They went all in with pitchers Zombro believes they can develop. Especially the arms in the first 12 rounds. Toss in Marton and a smattering of later round picks, they put in the effort to give Zombro a class to oversee development. Obviously it’s now on his team to get results but it’s encouraging that scouting and player development were in complete lockstep. We’ve been asking for that for years.

My thought on this is simple: you don't invest in Tyler Zombro and then don't give him the keys to oversee the kingdom. You brought him in. You promoted him. You're invested. You clearly believed in him to that point. It's exciting that they're going in this direction. 

I think the Cubs pitching development gets horsefeathers on a little excessively (guys like Justin Steele and Cade Horton and Jaxon Wiggins didn't come from nowhere) but it's obviously just not been enough (investment and development). If you're going to go in on pitching, and you've got Zombro, all of this makes perfect sense. 

[craig]

Appreciate all these points.  I'm old enough to recall a time when draft and development were two separate groups.  Syncing those makes so much sense.  For Zombro's guys to be analyzing together with Kantro's guys, and together having a shared developmental view for how a guy might project, that makes total sense.  

I think the "drafted lots of pitchers" thing may read stronger than is actually meaningfully true? 

1. Both 2nd-round picks were overslot bats, 35% of draft $$. 
2. They spent almost twice as much on Bailey alone as on the last 12 pitchers combined, or all of the pitchers rounds 6-20.  
3. 7 pitchers 3 bats >10th round.  That's not really very different, 3rd-day was always like that, often even more pitcher-oriented.  

I kinda think that after the top-3 big-ticket guys, it just makes sense to draft mostly pitchers unless there are HS bats you like that are somehow signable.  The developmental potential with <$500K college pitchers is just way better than with college hitters.  You can add velocity, develop new pitches, adjust grips and arm slots.  College hitters just don't often have the same opportunity to re-make themselves.  Look at draft history for big-league relievers and mid/late rotation guys, there are LOTS of pitchers who were not high-round big-ticket draft picks.  Way more than useful position guys who were drafted out of college middle/late and signed for <$500K.  I hope Ayers blossoms into one of those rare guys, but there just aren't all that many, especially who are better than back-of-roster guys.  

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]