Cubs (Martin) vs Phillies (Nola): 4/14/26, 5:40pm

[Bertz]

"Don't use anecdotes" says the guy who didn't bother to bring anything to the table.

Since the start of '23, Nico Hoerner on ground balls has a .271 BA and a .251 wOBA.  On balls in the air he's at .363 and .382. 

Like it's obvious you're getting increasingly desperate to have people argue with you but even so this is a reach.

[Jason Ross]

7 hours ago, Stratos said:

I said he should stop trying to hit HR because he's bad at it and would have a higher avg with a lower launch angle.

Your reply was to show his BA and xBA.  I'm not sure what your point was with those stats.  It's a statistical fact that hitting more flyballs leads to a lower BA, but more HR.  But Nico's flyballs leave the ballpark at a very low rate.  He was 2nd worst in MLB last year in HR per FB%.  The last 3 years he's been 4th worst, just 0.3% better than Luis Arraez.

Using anecdotal evidence and a sample size of 1 game or 2 weeks worth of games isn't good evidence.  4.3% of Nico's flyballs have been HR over the last 3 years, which is horrible, and his career rate is similar.

If he keeps hitting more FB and hitting leadoff yeah he'll likely reach a career high in HR just out of sheer volume, but at what cost?

He's been on fire this year so yeah it's a good argument that he shouldn't change a thing.  But he was also on fire the last month of last season and hit significantly lower rate of FB.

I have tried to explain this to you multiple times. If he were losing base hits due to his hitting the ball "in the air" then we'd see this reflected in xBA. Expected BA takes into account EV and launch angle. Meaning, if his xBA was sitting in the mid .200's this year, we'd be seeing someone who was losing hits. His xBA last year was .292. They're identical. 

I brought up an anecdote because it's pretty good timing for you to be complaining about him "trying to hit HR's" only for him, you know, like 3 hours later hitting one. It's quite coincidental, and frankly, pretty funny.

And let's really look at your complaint about "balls in the air". So far this year he's hitting 10% less ground balls, 8% more line drives and 4% more fly balls. His xwOBA and xSLG are currently his best ever. He also has his highest pull flyball rate. 

Lets go back to that xBA thing because it goes directly to complaining about this. He's currently pulling fly balls at the his highest% of his career. in 2025 here is the difference between pull% in the air and just balls in the air:
Pull: BA: .484 xBA: .394, wOBA: 889
Total: BA: .261, xBA: .252, wOBA: .426

Which is why what Hoerner is doing right now matters. Hoerner over the last three years has a pullair% that has gone from 14.5%, to 17.5%, to 22.5% this year. So sure, his HR% was lower before, but he's turning on more things and hitting the ball less on the ground and hitting more line drives. Remember, you're worried about him losing "singles" but league data says xBA goes up when you pull the ball in the air. Even if we eliminate all home runs, xBA is better on balls in the air pulL% by .40 points league wide. 

Line drives, which he's doing 8% more of this year has similar results. Data goes way up on ld% vsd gb%. xBA in 2025 on line drives were .619 vs .249. So even if you're worried he's going to lose a few hits with added fly balls, he will add far more by his LD% going up, and he's likely to hit a few more home runs. It's all going to balance out and then some if all of these numbers keep up. 

At what cost? Right now he's the best version of him ever. So what in the world are we whining about? It's just inventing "maybes" and "what ifs" to be worried about. It's pretty silly.

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, Bertz said:

"Don't use anecdotes" says the guy who didn't bother to bring anything to the table.

I literally went through stats of Nico's very low HR/FB% right before I made the point about anecdotes, so you're wrong.

5 hours ago, Bertz said:

Since the start of '23, Nico Hoerner on ground balls has a .271 BA and a .251 wOBA.  On balls in the air he's at .363 and .382.

There's a difference between a line-drive over the INF head and a flyball, both which i assume count as "balls in the air".  Trying to hit groundballs or flyballs is IMO a bad idea for Nico, he seems to excel when he hits liners all over the field, especially down the 3b line.  The angle of certain swings of Nico looks like he's trying to drive the ball out of the park, but it just fails so often.

5 hours ago, Bertz said:

Like it's obvious you're getting increasingly desperate to have people argue with you but even so this is a reach.

This is a discussion forum.  We're having a debate.  You've shown countless times that you're not capable of having one without using insults and becoming angry and toxic, and I call you out on it when it's directed at me because I'm not going to take anyone's horsefeathers.

You obviously don't like this so now you have this new habit of also butting into discussions I'm having with other posters and pulling the same BS.  Clearly I'm not the one getting desperate to pick a fight.

[Bertz]

23 hours ago, Stratos said:

IMO he needs to keep the ball out of the air.

.

19 minutes ago, Stratos said:

There's a difference between a line-drive over the INF head and a flyball, both which i assume count as "balls in the air".  Trying to hit groundballs or flyballs is IMO a bad idea for Nico

 

[javy knows my name]

Hey guys, I hope you're sitting down.

Stratos has a terrible take