2026 Off-season state of the farm

[CubinNY]

In just a few days it will be 2026 and it boring AF around here. Let’s talk about the state of the farm system. I’m no expert or even a novice, just an interested amateur, but the farm seems to me to be bereft of talent. If you exclude OWNKC, Mo, and Alcantara who will graduate or possibly be traded there is not a lot going on. Wiggins, maybe Jefferson Rojas and John Long are about it. Hernandez did well in his 2nd go around in low A, but at 22 and a professional since forever it seems he’s likely to be just a name. For pitchers?
 

is the outlook better than I think or is this a bad farm system? 

[Outshined_One]

It's top heavy for sure, with most of the best prospects concentrated in AAA/AA, and also concentrated on the position player side of things.

The good news is the Cubs have had a lot of success developing position players under this regime and that trend will likely continue into 2026 with Jefferson Rojas, Ethan Conrad, and Kane Kepley likely to be the headliners of the system after next season.  There are also some really fun names to watch who are currently under the radar like Josiah Hartshorn, Eli Lovich, Angel Cepeda, Yahil Melendez, and Cole Mathis, who could all make big strides next season.

Pitching, not going to mince words, is a train wreck after Wiggins. Birdsell is out with injury next season, so your guess is as good as anyone who the next best pitching prospect in this system is, be it Grant Kipp or Dominick Reid. Their draft had some fascinating names (namely Kaleb Wing), but overall, it's pretty rough right now.

[Jason Ross]

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

In just a few days it will be 2026 and it boring AF around here. Let’s talk about the state of the farm system. I’m no expert or even a novice, just an interested amateur, but the farm seems to me to be bereft of talent. If you exclude OWNKC, Mo, and Alcantara who will graduate or possibly be traded there is not a lot going on. Wiggins, maybe Jefferson Rojas and John Long are about it. Hernandez did well in his 2nd go around in low A, but at 22 and a professional since forever it seems he’s likely to be just a name. For pitchers?
 

is the outlook better than I think or is this a bad farm system? 

The Cubs have Owen Caissie, Moises Ballersteros, Jaxon Wiggins, Jefferson Rojas, Ethan Conrad, and others. "Bereft" means lacking - so that's untrue; there's plenty of talent. The good news and the bad news is two-fold; that talent if pretty close to the MLB level; which is both what you want if you're going to need to rely on some of that talent now (which the Cubs probably will) but also bad when that talent graduates for prospect rankings. That said, the goal is to win baseball games at the MLB level, not win prospect rankings, so the Cubs are at least on the right side of the tradeoff.

What you're picking up is that there is a lack of defined talent beyond the next wave. Part of this is because the team has traded that away; Cam Smith (1st round pick -24), Jackson Ferris (2nd round pick-23), Zyhir Hope (10th round with helium-23) Ryan Gallagher (late round pick helium - 24), Ronny Cruz (3rd round - 24). Part of this is because the Cubs drafted so well that Matt Shaw sped-run the MiLB and ended up at the MLB level faster than you'd have expected. Part of this is because some of the upside gambles just haven't turned out great so far; Naz Mule, JP Wheat, Drew Gray, etc have big stuff but just can't put it all together. So it feels like a bit of a combination of the Cubs choosing that route with trades and part of it being unable to develop some of the big-stuff guys yet (but with Cade Horton and Jaxon Wiggins it's hard to say it's been an unmitigated disaster, either). They also haven't done amazing in IFA recently - but that always feels like such a dice-throw, too.

I'd say anyone is being harsh if they poo-poo the system for being top-heavy by ignoring all of the help the Cubs are about to get. I'd also say that same person was not being harsh to point out the lack of defined players behind it. The hope is that the Cubs will luck into a few pitchers as the team gives more responsibility to Tyler Zombro, that the 2025 draft class (Conrad, Kepley, Hartshorn) develops. and maybe in year-2 the Cubs see more of what they hoped from someone like Cole Mathis. 

Prediction is that the Cubs go very heavy-pitching in the 2026 draft and you hope that as the team stack young talent at the MLB, that the team can take some time behind them to develop the 2025, 2026 and 2027 draft classes into the next wave of young players.

[Bertz]

I think Theo's "waves" metaphor is the best way to think about the farm currently.  Because it's probably average all in all but saying it's average and then calling it a day does a terrible job of setting the right expectations.  Broadly the 2026 club should have all the reinforcements it could ask for, but then there's a big gap hollowed out by trades before things pick back up again.

Wave 1 - The MLB-adjacent guys

This group is absolutely horsefeathering stellar.  Mo, Caissie, and Alcantara divide the industry a bit, but each were top 50 prospects in multiple mid-season lists.  Wiggins is a pretty consensus monster, and Jonny Long lacks some ceiling but is a quality player/prospect.  That's 5 prospects who look like first division types, PLUS the guys who are in prospect limbo like Brown, Wicks, and Hodge provide some real talent as well.

Wave 2 - The trending towards late '26 debuts

On the flipside, this group is in terrible shape.  Triantos and Ramirez look like quality bench players, and there's probably some middle relief and 5th starter outcomes in the Sanders/Kipp/etc. group, but this chunk if the farm is basically barren.  If the entire farm looked like this it'd be the 30th ranked org in the league.  It should be noted that this is where Hope, Ferris, and arguably Smith would have lived if they hadn't been traded

Wave 3 - South Bend (and the youngest youngsters at Tenn)

This is where the farm gets back to cooking.  Tennessee's not in the best shape but with Rojas, Hernandez, and to a lesser extent Armas there's some fresh talent arriving and improving things from last year's second half.  Then you have South Bend which has a phenomenal lineup.  Just 1-9 legitimate prospects.  The pitching is still not great at SB, but there's at least some arms and honestly even if there weren't with that lineup it's an affiliate you'd be happy with

Wave 4 - The Youths

This is going to be a real dice roll.  The Cubs have a good number of IFA guys that are slated to open at Myrtle.  It's a ton of talent, but the reports out of the ACL haven't been amazing to this point.  I suspect we're in for another year like last year where this group gets it's collective ass handed to it in the 1st half but adjusts in the 2nd half and leaves us feeling good.  Not an IFA but Josiah Hartshorn might be the most talented player in the org and is our best chance at an absolute monster Top 5 overall type prospect