Tatsuya Imai to the Astros

[Hortonhearsawho]

24 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Any chance he just plays in Japan another year?

No way. Even the worst offer will beat his Japanese salary.

[ToolDRT]

I’m honestly at the point where I wish they would skip Imai, trade for a pitcher and resign Tucker. 

[thawv]

19 hours ago, Hortonhearsawho said:

I'm team sign good players whether that player is Imai, Bregman etc I just want to see the Cubs add good players to their roster and improve the team. But I'm not particularly attached to one name as their are a lot of good players out there.

Exactly.  Just sign good players.  And hopefully they are the best available at the time.  

[Geographyhater8888]

3 hours ago, thawv said:

Exactly.  Just sign good players.  And hopefully they are the best available at the time.  

Cubs are log jammed with “good players”. Zach Gallen is a good player, They have enough solid middle of the rotation arms that’ll help you win a best of 11 playoff series instead of a best of 5. Cabrera and Bregman/Bichette would be my preference no matter how unlikely for the sake of novelty. You can forget about Tucker.

Edited January 1 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

6 hours ago, ToolDRT said:

I’m honestly at the point where I wish they would skip Imai, trade for a pitcher and resign Tucker. 

 

Edited January 1 by Geographyhater8888

[thawv]

2 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Cubs are log jammed with “good players”. Zach Gallen is a good player, They need  difference makers, not bottom of the rotation depth that’ll help you win a best of 11 playoff series instead of a best of 5. Cabrera and Bregman/Bichette would be my preference no matter how unlikely. You can forget about Tucker.

I agree.  That's why I said hopefully the best player.  Right now, the team has way too many Ian Happ's.  We need some stars.  But sadly, starts cost the most money, and that's just not the Cubs thing.  

 

Bregman/Bichette would be ideal.  Then put Shaw on the bench as the utility infielder and have him play 2B in 2027.  All Gallen does is put Rea in the pen.  He's a middle of the rotation guy.  I want to see Amai, Ranger, or Valdez added to the rotation.  Gallen is not going to much of a difference maker.  

[Geographyhater8888]

10 minutes ago, thawv said:

I agree.  That's why I said hopefully the best player.  Right now, the team has way too many Ian Happ's.  We need some stars.  But sadly, starts cost the most money, and that's just not the Cubs thing.  

 

Bregman/Bichette would be ideal.  Then put Shaw on the bench as the utility infielder and have him play 2B in 2027.  All Gallen does is put Rea in the pen.  He's a middle of the rotation guy.  I want to see Amai, Ranger, or Valdez added to the rotation.  Gallen is not going to much of a difference maker.  

They can’t add both a free agent starting pitcher and an expensive bat if they want to stay under the LT. That’s why a trade for Cabrera would be my preference for starting pitcher. 
I’d bet the Cubs lack of elite arms was the reason the computer models gave the Cubs the lowest World Series win probability heading into the playoffs in their simulations. Money ball with a fringe top 10 payroll.

Edited January 1 by Geographyhater8888

[thawv]

Just now, Geographyhater8888 said:

They can’t add both a free agent starting pitcher and an expensive bat if they want to stay under the LT. That’s why a trade for Cabrera would be my preference for starting pitcher. 
I’d bet the Cubs lack of elite arms was the reason the computer models gave the Cubs the lowest World Series win probability heading into the playoffs in their simulations. 

 

1 minute ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

They can’t add both a free agent starting pitcher and an expensive bat if they want to stay under the LT. That’s why a trade for Cabrera would be my preference for starting pitcher. 
I’d bet the Cubs lack of elite arms was the reason the computer models gave the Cubs the lowest World Series win probability heading into the playoffs in their simulations. 

This is a problem for me as a fan.  They are dead set on the first level of the threshold instead of trying to win.  But as the owner, I would do the same thing.  They CAN add the best stick, and the best arm.  They just choose not to.  But in reality, Tom didn't buy this team to win baseball games.  He bought it to make money.  

 

I'm usually in the minority here but I don't think a major market team should have to trade for established pitching when they have the resources to sign the best guy available and keep their prospects.  This is what teams with no money do. 

[Stratos]

19 hours ago, Hortonhearsawho said:

I'm team sign good players whether that player is Imai, Bregman etc I just want to see the Cubs add good players to their roster and improve the team. But I'm not particularly attached to one name as their are a lot of good players out there.

Yeah I agree, and that seems how this FO thinks.  There's a bunch moving parts that can work here.

Looking at the team, if I'm being honest I think if they really wanted to make a push they'd need to sign both a good bat like Bregman and a good SP.  If Mo breaks out they could get away with just an SP and still hit 90 wins if things go well.  Replacing Tuckers 4.5 wins isn't easy.

[Geographyhater8888]

30 minutes ago, thawv said:

 

 

I'm usually in the minority here but I don't think a major market team should have to trade for established pitching when they have the resources to sign the best guy available and keep their prospects.  This is what teams with no money do. 

You’re in the majority here. Everyone would love if the cubs operated like the Dodgers. It won’t happen so we have to be realistic. The Dodgers aren’t exactly prospect huggers either. Michael Busch was a perfectly capable prospect and a great bat. They decided to sign a 30 YO Freeman to a long term contract instead.

Edited January 1 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

6 hours ago, ToolDRT said:

I’m honestly at the point where I wish they would skip Imai, trade for a pitcher and resign Tucker. 

After deep reflection I’m leaning towards Tucker+Cabrera myself if there’s a reality where that’s a possibility.

[Geographyhater8888]

3 hours ago, Stratos said:

Yeah I agree, and that seems how this FO thinks.  There's a bunch moving parts that can work here.

Looking at the team, if I'm being honest I think if they really wanted to make a push they'd need to sign both a good bat like Bregman and a good SP.  If Mo breaks out they could get away with just an SP and still hit 90 wins if things go well.  Replacing Tuckers 4.5 wins isn't easy.

I don’t disagree but they’ll have 6 months of a refined Shaw and an opening day rotation with Horton. That in itself will add at least 2.5 wins from third base alone subtracting the below replacement carousel of Workman/Brujan/Berti for 2 months. If the rotation is healthy you can add more wins from the lack of Ben Brown and bullpen games for long stretches of the year.

The bullpen might not be as lights out but who knows.

Edited January 1 by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, thawv said:

I agree.  That's why I said hopefully the best player.  

All Gallen does is put Rea in the pen.  He's a middle of the rotation guy.  I want to see Amai, Ranger, or Valdez added to the rotation.  Gallen is not going to much of a difference maker.  

I want the Cubs to get the guys they want, not the guys that they get because they accept the Cubs contract and they fall back to the Cubs. As a major market they should be able to do that.

That said, I think you and most others are shorting Gallen here. His career stats line up nicely to Suarez and Valdez. if you don’t consider them just someone to take Rea out of the rotation and a small upgrade you shouldn’t have that opinion of Gallen either. He was off last year. But he did get better the second half. Guys here constantly write off guys after a bad stretch. And often they are wrong. If the Cubs see something that may have caused issues with Gallen last year and think they can fix it, or if Gallen did fix it late last year, he is just as much an upgrade to the rotation as is Valdez and Suarez. And small detail here, but I would rather have another right handed pitcher than a lefty. If the Cubs do get Gallen, I am not considering him a small move that doesn’t make much of a difference.

Based on strictly what I read here, I want Imai. But if not him, I put Gallen, Suarez and Valdez all in the same level.

[Derwood]

I've never been bothered by Boras trying to get the most money and best terms for his clients. That's his job. 

I am, however, beyond annoyed that his tactics basically lock up the entire off season every winter. 

[thawv]

46 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I want the Cubs to get the guys they want, not the guys that they get because they accept the Cubs contract and they fall back to the Cubs. As a major market they should be able to do that.

That said, I think you and most others are shorting Gallen here. His career stats line up nicely to Suarez and Valdez. if you don’t consider them just someone to take Rea out of the rotation and a small upgrade you shouldn’t have that opinion of Gallen either. He was off last year. But he did get better the second half. Guys here constantly write off guys after a bad stretch. And often they are wrong. If the Cubs see something that may have caused issues with Gallen last year and think they can fix it, or if Gallen did fix it late last year, he is just as much an upgrade to the rotation as is Valdez and Suarez. And small detail here, but I would rather have another right handed pitcher than a lefty. If the Cubs do get Gallen, I am not considering him a small move that doesn’t make much of a difference.

Based on strictly what I read here, I want Imai. But if not him, I put Gallen, Suarez and Valdez all in the same level.

Fair enough.  I'd also prefer a RHP.  Yes, Gallen is better than Rea, so he's definitely an upgrade.  we need to land Imai.  Gallen's Savant page was awful last year.  The couple of years before that it was pretty good, but nothing special.  Yes, I would much rather have him over Rea.  And probably over Jaimo too.  So if they don't land Imai, I can see a 2/42 ish deal for Gallen being a nice upgrade.  

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, thawv said:

Fair enough.  I'd also prefer a RHP.  Yes, Gallen is better than Rea, so he's definitely an upgrade.  we need to land Imai.  Gallen's Savant page was awful last year.  The couple of years before that it was pretty good, but nothing special.  Yes, I would much rather have him over Rea.  And probably over Jaimo too.  So if they don't land Imai, I can see a 2/42 ish deal for Gallen being a nice upgrade.  

Zac Gallen was the 6th best SP based on fWAR two years ago - we have to be holistic - Savant is awesome but there's a lot of things we should look at. He fell off recently, but that seems to be a shape issue; his velocity has been fine. 

I've said it before and I'll say it again - Gallen isn't my top-of-the-list guy, but it hasn't been very long since the guy was elite-elite and it seems very possible a good pitching team can snap the fastball shape back through biomechanics and pitch development. From a Cub perspective what Gallen does well is exactly what the Cubs do well in terms of teaching.

I'll also say this about Imai and the high-guy here - we don't have to land Imai. There are a bunch of really good SP's the Cubs can get; Imai isn't a savior. He's got a good look to him, but it might not land.

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, thawv said:

Fair enough.  I'd also prefer a RHP.  Yes, Gallen is better than Rea, so he's definitely an upgrade.  we need to land Imai.  Gallen's Savant page was awful last year.  The couple of years before that it was pretty good, but nothing special.  Yes, I would much rather have him over Rea.  And probably over Jaimo too.  So if they don't land Imai, I can see a 2/42 ish deal for Gallen being a nice upgrade.  

He isn’t signing a 2/$41 deal. If the Cubs sign him because they want him, not because he fell to them in this ridiculous term you have deemed satisfactory, he will cost $20M+ and for 4 years. 
like Jason said, he isn’t my first choice either. I just don’t see him any different than Suarez, for sure, and very close to Valdez. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

He isn’t signing a 2/$41 deal. If the Cubs sign him because they want him, not because he fell to them in this ridiculous term you have deemed satisfactory, he will cost $20M+ and for 4 years. 
like Jason said, he isn’t my first choice either. I just don’t see him any different than Suarez, for sure, and very close to Valdez. 

Valdez is a much better pitcher now, and with his ground ball tendencies, likely has FIP beater profiles that will extend him longer into his contract. Gallen could be good again, Valdez already is good, so I don't think they belong in the same tier. 

My concerns with Valdez are a lot around how much of a turd move it was to throw at your own catcher mid-game (I don't buy the explanation) and what that might mean. I don't know the guy, and I don't know how teams will rate that, but it raises from red flags for me. 

[thawv]

16 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Zac Gallen was the 6th best SP based on fWAR two years ago - we have to be holistic - Savant is awesome but there's a lot of things we should look at. He fell off recently, but that seems to be a shape issue; his velocity has been fine. 

I've said it before and I'll say it again - Gallen isn't my top-of-the-list guy, but it hasn't been very long since the guy was elite-elite and it seems very possible a good pitching team can snap the fastball shape back through biomechanics and pitch development. From a Cub perspective what Gallen does well is exactly what the Cubs do well in terms of teaching.

I'll also say this about Imai and the high-guy here - we don't have to land Imai. There are a bunch of really good SP's the Cubs can get; Imai isn't a savior. He's got a good look to him, but it might not land.

His velocity has always been below average, and last year was his lowest.  I'd still take him as he would be an upgrade to a couple of our guys right now. 

 

I you think that the Cubs would be a benefit for him, I trust you.

Do you still think that Imai is going to get what you thought the other day?  I can still see a Shota type of deal.  This is going to be even closer to the deadline than Murakami's signing.  Which I believe is the closest in the posting era.  

[Rcal10]

24 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Valdez is a much better pitcher now, and with his ground ball tendencies, likely has FIP beater profiles that will extend him longer into his contract. Gallen could be good again, Valdez already is good, so I don't think they belong in the same tier. 

My concerns with Valdez are a lot around how much of a turd move it was to throw at your own catcher mid-game (I don't buy the explanation) and what that might mean. I don't know the guy, and I don't know how teams will rate that, but it raises from red flags for me. 

Fair enough. TBH, I am probably undervaluing Valdez because of that dickish move he pulled. 

[Jason Ross]

19 minutes ago, thawv said:

His velocity has always been below average, and last year was his lowest.  I'd still take him as he would be an upgrade to a couple of our guys right now. 

 

I you think that the Cubs would be a benefit for him, I trust you.

Do you still think that Imai is going to get what you thought the other day?  I can still see a Shota type of deal.  This is going to be even closer to the deadline than Murakami's signing.  Which I believe is the closest in the posting era.  

First off, no, Zac Gallen's velocity wasn't the "lowest of his career". He was at 93.0 in 2019, 93.2 in 2020, and 93.4 in 2021. Last year's 93.5 is the exact same it was during his best season in 2023, when he was the 6th best SP. His velocity has been shockingly consistent, never deviating a full MPH from highest high to his lowest low. It's a bit on the below average side but velocity isn't king as much as you're acting. Velo can be nice, but velo does not equate K's or whiffs. We'll get a good look at that with Phil Maton who throws well below average for a RP and yet was in the 100th percentile in whiff rate.

Yes. My opinion on Imai's contract has not changed. He'll get $20+m aav. I do think it could be a sliding contract like Shota's, but it'll be a supersized version of it, like Zumach had the other day were 5/$100m could be a 3-year deal with an opt out or an 8-year deal type of a thing.

It won't be the closest. Kikuchi was slated to sign by January 2nd when he came over and signed on the 2nd.

[Rcal10]

14 minutes ago, thawv said:

His velocity has always been below average, and last year was his lowest.  I'd still take him as he would be an upgrade to a couple of our guys right now. 

 

I you think that the Cubs would be a benefit for him, I trust you.

Do you still think that Imai is going to get what you thought the other day?  I can still see a Shota type of deal.  This is going to be even closer to the deadline than Murakami's signing.  Which I believe is the closest in the posting era.  

I can see a Shota type deal, but larger AAV. Maybe 2 for $40M then Cubs option the next 3 @ 66M total. If they say no he can take 3/$55M. This gives him a guarantee of  5/$95M. If neither works he is a FA.  I doubt he is much lower than something like that. 

[thawv]

2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

First off, no, Zac Gallen's velocity wasn't the "lowest of his career". He was at 93.0 in 2019, 93.2 in 2020, and 93.4 in 2021. Last year's 93.5 is the exact same it was during his best season in 2023, when he was the 6th best SP. 

Yes. My opinion on Imai's contract has not changed. He'll get $20+m aav. I do think it could be a sliding contract like Shota's, but it'll be a supersized version of it, like Zumach had the other day were 5/$100m could be a 3-year deal with an opt out or an 8-year deal type of a thing.

It won't be the closest. Kikuchi was slated to sign by January 2nd when he came over and signed on the 2nd.

I meant the lowest in his career as far as percent of the league.  You're right. 

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

First off, no, Zac Gallen's velocity wasn't the "lowest of his career". He was at 93.0 in 2019, 93.2 in 2020, and 93.4 in 2021. Last year's 93.5 is the exact same it was during his best season in 2023, when he was the 6th best SP. 

Yes. My opinion on Imai's contract has not changed. He'll get $20+m aav. I do think it could be a sliding contract like Shota's, but it'll be a supersized version of it, like Zumach had the other day were 5/$100m could be a 3-year deal with an opt out or an 8-year deal type of a thing.

It won't be the closest. Kikuchi was slated to sign by January 2nd when he came over and signed on the 2nd.

And that note, is average velocity of 93.5 below average? I wouldn’t see he throws hard, but I would think that’s average.🤷

[Geographyhater8888]

12 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Fair enough. TBH, I am probably undervaluing Valdez because of that dickish move he pulled. 

Counsels flat affect has rubbed off on the clubhouse and a guy like Valdez could bring back that edge we haven’t had since Milton Bradley.