Will Jed Hoyer Finally Spend Big in the Reliever Market This Winter?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

It's never been Jed Hoyer's style to pay top dollar for relievers—even great, relatively reliable ones. When Theo Epstein was still with the Cubs, they did sign Craig Kimbrel to a three-year deal in 2019, but those were special circumstances, and Hoyer isn't Epstein. Last winter, however, Hoyer did have a long flirtation with Tanner Scott. Though the hard-throwing lefty eventually signed with the Dodgers, the Cubs' offer was competitive. In fact, it had a greater net present value (after accounting for the deferrals in the deal he signed with Los Angeles) than any other team's highest bid.

Hoyer is increasingly open to big moves like signing a top-flight reliever to a multi-year deal, and well he should be. The Cubs are very much entering a winning phase in their competitive cycle, and the affordability of young stars Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch and Cade Horton gives them some financial wiggle room this winter. This winter, there are a handful of hurlers at roughly the same tier as Scott who should be on the team's radar, including a couple who officially became free agents Monday. Here's a rundown.

Edwin Díaz, RHP
Díaz opted out of the final two years of his deal with the Mets Monday, leaving $38 million on the table. Because the Mets did not extend him a qualifying offer before signing him when he first hit free agency three years ago, they can do so now, which would dampen his market. He and his representatives clearly believe he can still get a third year on a new deal.

They're right, too. It feels like he's been around for a long time, but Díaz is just 31 years old. He has a career strikeout rate a hair under 40%, and he doesn't walk an inordinate number of batters, either. His fastball sits 97 and still touches 100, with life. His slider plays off it viciously well, coming in around 90 miles per hour and looking like the heater until it's too late for the batter. He's likely to make another $80 million over four years, although the qualifying offer could bring that number down 10 percent or so. The Cubs will take an interest, but it's a longshot that they'd actually be the ones to land him.

Robert Suarez, RHP
By contrast, Suarez is much more natural a Hoyer target. He opted out of two more years with the Padres, but that deal was going to pay him much less than Díaz's would have. For multiple reasons, he's also less likely to receive a qualifying offer from San Diego. That would make him available without draft-pick compensation attached, which would increase his appeal to the Cubs.

Cubs fans got a good look at Suarez during the team's triumph over San Diego in the Wild Card Series last month. He fills up the zone with a fastball that often hits triple digits, consistently limiting walks and damaging contact well. He struck out 27.9% of opposing batters this season, which would be a boost for the Cubs' pen. However, that's not elite bat-missing ability, by the standards of modern relievers. Nor will Suarez, who turns 35 next March, have the same chance to command a long-term deal that Díaz has. 

He's not quite as dominant as some of the other arms hitting the market are capable of being, but Suarez should land in a price range more comfortable for Chicago than some of the others. His age and skill set make him the type of arm some of the other big-market teams shy away from. He fits what the Cubs like to a tee, though, and could be their top target on this market.

Devin Williams, RHP
What a disaster his year in the Bronx was. Williams is probably craving an escape from that situation, and his struggles in New York forced the Yankees to trade for David Bednar in July, so they won't be giving Williams a qualifying offer on the way out the door. He worked a career-high 62 innings in his walk year, but his 4.79 ERA will keep the market for his services from heating up to the extent he surely imagined as recently as six months ago.

Williams can be a mercurial clubhouse presence, which might turn off some would-be suitors. It makes the notion of a reunion with a manager who understood and accommodated him especially appealing, so this could be one way that Craig Counsell delivers value to his new team based on the work he did for his old one. The most intriguing thing about him, though, is that despite the bad vibes and the ugly surface-level numbers during his stint with the Yankees, Williams still has good stuff. He ran into a few more barrels this year, and his 34.7% strikeout rate was a career-worst mark—but it would be the career-best for many guys. He also walked fewer batters than usual, dipping under 10% for the first time since his rookie campaign.

Luke Weaver, RHP
The former Cardinals prospect became a bit of a bust with the Diamondbacks, but when he moved to the bullpen in subsequent stops, he unlocked something impressive. For the last two years, he's been a co-ace in the Yankees bullpen, running an aggregate strikeout rate around 30% while limiting walks well. He has a high arm slot, a high-riding four-seamer, and a great changeup that plays against both lefties and righties (with the odd cutter to keep righties off of it a bit). He's also below the QO threshold, which should result in a robust market; he weathered heavy usage in the 2024 postseason well and was pretty much the same guy in 2025.

Pete Fairbanks, RHP
We haven't yet heard what the Rays intend to do with Fairbanks, on whom they hold an $11-million option with a $1-million buyout for 2026. That would be a lot of money for Tampa to spend on a reliever, though, so even if they pick up the option, he'll be on the trade market. He's the same age as Díaz and throws just as hard, but he doesn't have the devastating secondary pitch to go with it. His strikeout rate since the start of 2024 is just 24%, which makes him decidedly less than an elite arm at this point. However, he also keeps the bases relatively clear, and he can still be overwhelming in the right matchups or on the right days.

José Alvarado, LHP
The Phillies hold a relatively affordable $9-million option on Alvarado for 2026, but we haven't yet heard whether they'll exercise it. He was unavailable to them in October due to a suspension for PEDs that also cut a big chunk out of his season. However, when he's on the mound, few relievers can match Alvarado for sheer nastiness. His sinker sits 99 and touches 102, and the hard cutter he throws off of it induces whiffs at an exceptional rate. Conditioning and mechanical work helped him dramatically reduce his walk rate in 2025. If the Phillies let him walk or are open to trading him, the Cubs are likely to be among the interested parties.

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In addition to that sextet, the Cubs have to weigh whether or not to bring back incumbent high-leverage relievers Brad Keller or Andrew Kittredge. In the next two days, we'll hear which choice they make about Kittredge, on whom they hold a $9-million option for 2026. Keller is a free agent, though, so if they don't bring him back, they have to replace him. One way or another, Hoyer is likely to spend more than usual on the bullpen this winter. 

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[Development DL]

Lefty side seems to be the potential bigger need .  However those are some potential needle moving names .  

I look forward to more of your already solid off season work .  I like your contrarian views .  . 
 

 

Edited November 4, 2025 by Development DL

[Tryptamine]

Short easy answer. No, especially with a lockout coming.

[Bertz]

I hope the team makes a big swing at a reliever this year.  I'd honestly do Devin Williams if he doesn't get QO'd.

The arguments against a big investment in relief are the year to year volatility inherent with relievers plus the opportunity cost of spending on relief instead of other positions (largeley tying back to point #1). 

Given that the team is fairly complete from the outset of the offseasin here, I don't think the latter point is as strong of a consideration as it might have been the past few years.  There's only so much Jed can spend his money on, and the baseline at most positions on the roster is high enough that spending on the bullpen might honestly be the best bang for your buck play.

I think Kittredge might be the canary in the coal mine for the team's intentions.  The only reason I can think of for not wanting to pick up his option is if you're going to go for a bigger fish.  If you wanted to scrimp on the bullpen you'd pick up the option and pair it with a handful of Caleb Thielbar/Eli Morgan type moves.