What's Wrong with Boyd Lately?

[mk49]

In the last 30 days or so, Boyd is by far the worst starting pitcher.  The rest of them have been great, Shota, Horton, Rea and even Taillon in the first few games after he came back from IL and Assad in the last game.  

I love what Boyd has done in this season, and I didn't expected 5 ER against the Giants tonight.  In Aug, his ERA is over 4.  Is he just tired or what?

At the moment, Horton seems to be the best, followed by Imanaga.  Imanaga pitches longer innings, which is great.

Edited August 27, 2025 by mk49

[mk49]

OK, the Cubs just lost against the Giants.  I really expected a win, because Boyd started.  Well, that's just how it goes.  

I really hoped the Cubs sweep the next 6 games, which isn't easy, I understand.  

 

Edited August 27, 2025 by mk49

[Brock Beauchamp]

7 hours ago, mk49 said:

OK, the Cubs just lost against the Giants.  I really expected a win, because Boyd started.  Well, that's just how it goes.  

I really hoped the Cubs sweep the next 6 games, which isn't easy, I understand.  

 

Welcome to NSBB! Your posts are approved, so you no longer have to wait for them to be appear going forward.

[CubUgly]

7 hours ago, mk49 said:

In the last 30 days or so, Boyd is by far the worst starting pitcher.  The rest of them have been great, Shota, Horton, Rea and even Taillon in the first few games after he came back from IL and Assad in the last game.  

I love what Boyd has done in this season, and I didn't expected 5 ER against the Giants tonight.  In Aug, his ERA is over 4.  Is he just tired or what?

At the moment, Horton seems to be the best, followed by Imanaga.  Imanaga pitches longer innings, which is great.

One wonders if he has hit the proverbial wall.  He hasn't pitched this many innings, or anything close to it in - what?? 6 years.  It's been a concern of mine all year for both he and Horton....could they pitch effectively into September given this fact?

[Jason Ross]

9 hours ago, mk49 said:

In the last 30 days or so, Boyd is by far the worst starting pitcher.  The rest of them have been great, Shota, Horton, Rea and even Taillon in the first few games after he came back from IL and Assad in the last game.  

I love what Boyd has done in this season, and I didn't expected 5 ER against the Giants tonight.  In Aug, his ERA is over 4.  Is he just tired or what?

At the moment, Horton seems to be the best, followed by Imanaga.  Imanaga pitches longer innings, which is great.

First off, welcome to NSBB. Secondly, to explore Matthew Boyd, let's check out his last month:

Season: 2.82 ERA, 3.96 xFIP, 22.6 K%, 5.9 BB%, 78.2 LOB%, .88 HR/9 
Since July 22nd: 4.10 ERA, 4.06 xFIP, 21 K%, 7.8 BB%, 70.7 LOB, 1.08 HR/9 

So, looking at that, the number that probably first jumps out at you is the ERA increase, but diagnosing that is important. xFIP is a number we can use to determine how lucky or unlucky a pitcher has been and his xFIP over those two spans are nearly identical, off just by a few hundredths. If we dive deeper, he's not egregiously different as hitters are chasing, making contact and hitting generally the same amount of pitches (give or take 2% here or there). His fastball velocity is not down. His barrel% against is down and his average exit velocity is the same. 

A lot of the reason his ERA has jumped is because his LOB% (left on base%) is low. This is generally due to poor variance. These things happen. There does not seem to be anything wrong with Boyd. He was probably a bit lucky earlier this season. He's probably a little unlucky now.  If he was getting tired we'd see a drop in velocity, which we do not see. If he was missing the zone or pitching poorly or had a mechanical flaw, we'd see that reflected in K% and BB%. Instead, things are mostly in line with what they have been. This is normal stuff. Nothing is broken. 

[Bertz]

Yeah Boyd has pitched well all year but was not even close to earning a ~2.50 ERA.  This is just some garden variety regression.

[cubfansince77]

On 8/27/2025 at 12:12 AM, mk49 said:

In the last 30 days or so, Boyd is by far the worst starting pitcher.  The rest of them have been great, Shota, Horton, Rea and even Taillon in the first few games after he came back from IL and Assad in the last game.  

I love what Boyd has done in this season, and I didn't expected 5 ER against the Giants tonight.  In Aug, his ERA is over 4.  Is he just tired or what?

At the moment, Horton seems to be the best, followed by Imanaga.  Imanaga pitches longer innings, which is great.

Boyd has hit the proverbial wall...is it mental or physical or a combo of both? Dunno but with our depth right now I'd like to see them skip his next start. Give him a breather so he can maybe re-set himself and make a course correction. He hasn't pitched this many innings in a long time. Fatigue is inevitable at some point. 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, cubfansince77 said:

Boyd has hit the proverbial wall...is it mental or physical or a combo of both? Dunno but with our depth right now I'd like to see them skip his next start. Give him a breather so he can maybe re-set himself and make a course correction. He hasn't pitched this many innings in a long time. Fatigue is inevitable at some point. 

When Taillon is back wouldn't be the worst idea to skip a start for him.  Right now we're a little thin. 

[mk49]

If I remember correctly,  in Boyd's contract with the Cubs, he would get extra $$, if he pitches over certain number of innings, and he already earned it.  So, his health was/is always a concern.

When the Cubs singed him, I thought he could be good, if healthy.  I guess I should stop complaining about his last 5 or 6 games, and start think I'm happy that he's still pitching.😀

Right now, I can trust Shota and Cade, but no much faith in Boyd.  Maybe, he should skip a game in the rotation, and he might be fine.  

Edited September 6, 2025 by mk49