Draft Analysis: Rounds 1-5

[T2E]

Draft Analysis: Rounds 1-5

 

Round 1: Mark Pawelek, Springfield HS, Utah, LHP

Scouting Report: High school lefties are often thought of as raw arms and who will need lots of refinement before they reach the pro level. Pawelek defies this stereotype with his polished pitches and command. This isn’t to say that Pawelek doesn’t have a huge upside, because he does. He doesn’t have massive size, but he’s a long and lean 6’3” 190. He dominated his high school competition with his plus stuff. Pawelek’s fastball gets good movement, works in the 92-94 MPH range and has reached as high as 96 MPH. His curveball is his second best pitch, and he commands it well. The Utah lefty throws two different types; a bigger breaking one in the 73-75 MPH range and more often, a hard breaking curve in the high-70’s. Pawelek, pronounced Paw-lick, can throw his change-up for strikes and also mixes in a slider and is working on a split-finger fastball. His makeup is also considered to be a plus. The only question mark surrounds his mechanics. Pawelek starts his delivery with a big rock back step, kicks his leg to his neck and brings his glove above his head. When delivering the ball, Pawelek’s glove flies to his right leg, and his head tilts to the right side and doesn’t stay on target. However, these flaws are considered to be correctable. Equally important is his smooth and easy arm action.

Analysis: Besides a few minor mechanical flaws, Pawelek has about all you could look for in a high school pitcher: a good fastball, solid secondary pitches, command, and he throws with the ideal hand. Signing him for slot money is a bargain, and Pawelek should begin his career shortly. Excellent pick.

 

http://deseretnews.com/photos/u032405paw.jpg

Desert News

 

Read the entire article

[Jon]

I like the sound of that split-finger Pawlek is working on. By the way, how common is Veal's velocity inconsistency among college pitchers?

 

Thanks for the write-up.

[texascub]

T2E, reading your analysis of Scott Taylor kind of reminds me of a slightly larger version of Kyle Davies. They were taken about the same place (Davies in the 4th) and their descriptions sound fairly similar; who would you compare Taylor to?

[Outshined_One]

Thanks for the analysis T2E!

[T2E]

By the way, how common is Veal's velocity inconsistency among college pitchers?

 

Although I'm not entirely sure, I'd say that a large number of college pitchers struggle with inconsistancies with their fastball velocity. There is lots of reason to believe that Veal will be able to throw harder more consistantly because his motion is easy, and his frame is projectable.

[T2E]

T2E, reading your analysis of Scott Taylor kind of reminds me of a slightly larger version of Kyle Davies. They were taken about the same place (Davies in the 4th) and their descriptions sound fairly similar; who would you compare Taylor to?

 

Kris Benson maybe? It's hard to know without seeing him pitch.

[craig]

T2E, reading your analysis of Scott Taylor kind of reminds me of a slightly larger version of Kyle Davies. They were taken about the same place (Davies in the 4th) and their descriptions sound fairly similar; who would you compare Taylor to?

 

Kris Benson maybe? It's hard to know without seeing him pitch.

 

Maybe Mike Wuertz? Or Don Wengert?

 

Got July VineLine yesterday, had a length draft story, including scouting reports (including quotes from specific scouts, Stockstill for Pawelek, then either the area scout or crosschecker for others guys) through the first 10-rounds.

 

Highlights:

2: said Veal's velocity was average, but that he gets some action/tail inside versus righties, and his throwing-across-the-body delivery gives some action.

3: talked about Holliman touching 93 but typically working in the 88-91 range with fastball, working inside, and having an excellent slurve. Referred to his good frame (even though he's not that tall) and large hands, which I assume are conducive to good breaking ball.

3: Billek, discussed as a strong, 3-pitch control artist with good mechanics/delivery, said he can throw strikes all day long. The Cub scout perceived his issue being that at present he doesn't have a putaway pitch. I imagine they figure that if he can sharpen his slider into something he can use as a punch-out pitch with 2 strikes, that he's got a chance to be a high-level rotation pitcher. If he's a strong strike-thrower, he'll probably sail through the low minors pretty well even without a punchout breaking ball.

4: Mostly discussed Johnson's defensive skills, although siad he does have some bat speed and shows occassional hint of some opposite-field power. Said his defensive tools could play anywhere, including catcher.

5: Taylor, said he was once clocked as fast as 92. I'd gotten the impression from BA that 90's wasn't that rare for him, but Swoope didn't make him sound nearly as fast as I'd assumed. Said he had a slider, and at present used a curveball for his changeup. (didn't sound like that would last in the pro game..)

6: Reynolds, said he was wiry strong, good athlete, good bat speed, can play anywhere. I believe compared him to Vizcaino defensively. Referred to his swing sometimes getting long due to his height. I assume that's the issue that he'll need to correct to succeed as a pro. Also, not from VineLine, but my understanding is that Reynolds has played almost all season with an injury, which may be responsible for why his hitting numbers weren't better.

7: Trey Taylor, referred to 82-89 mph fastball, big-time movement, and sharp breaking pitch.

8: Swoope (in my view the Cubs best scout, and not a gusher...) gushed about 20-year-old Muyco's defense. I'm not sure even Ryan Jorgensen got such good buzz. Swoope also said Muyco has good bat speed, although obviously HR-power is not in the picture.

9: Said Avery can throw 92 consistently when he's right, and has good movement. Obviously he isn't right and 92 consistently; but obviously the minors is to help guys lock into doing things correctly.

10: Simokaitas: Didn't scout as weak a hitter as I expected. Didn't scout as great defensively as I expected.

 

Anyway, the reports were as long or a little longer than BA reports. Several of the players I came away with revised perspectives. Veal as an action prospect, more than as a power-pitcher guy; Billek as a solid 3-pitch control pitcher, rather than as an erratic unrefined power guy; Taylor as not so fast or so fantastic as BA made him sound; Reynolds and Muyco as not so hapless and hopeless as BA made them sound.

[OleMissCub]

3: talked about Holliman touching 93 but typically working in the 88-91 range with fastball, working inside, and having an excellent slurve. Referred to his good frame (even though he's not that tall) and large hands, which I assume are conducive to good breaking ball.

 

I played with and watched Holliman pitch for 3 years and I would say that he works in the 91-94 range. Definitely low 90's. In a game against Tennessee this year he was hitting 96-97 pretty consistently on our gun. He throws real hard. His slider is awesome (I guess this was what they were referring to as his "slurve" in that article.)

[T2E]

2: said Veal's velocity was average, but that he gets some action/tail inside versus righties, and his throwing-across-the-body delivery gives some action.

3: talked about Holliman touching 93 but typically working in the 88-91 range with fastball, working inside, and having an excellent slurve. Referred to his good frame (even though he's not that tall) and large hands, which I assume are conducive to good breaking ball.

3: Billek, discussed as a strong, 3-pitch control artist with good mechanics/delivery, said he can throw strikes all day long. The Cub scout perceived his issue being that at present he doesn't have a putaway pitch. I imagine they figure that if he can sharpen his slider into something he can use as a punch-out pitch with 2 strikes, that he's got a chance to be a high-level rotation pitcher. If he's a strong strike-thrower, he'll probably sail through the low minors pretty well even without a punchout breaking ball.

4: Mostly discussed Johnson's defensive skills, although siad he does have some bat speed and shows occassional hint of some opposite-field power. Said his defensive tools could play anywhere, including catcher.

5: Taylor, said he was once clocked as fast as 92. I'd gotten the impression from BA that 90's wasn't that rare for him, but Swoope didn't make him sound nearly as fast as I'd assumed. Said he had a slider, and at present used a curveball for his changeup. (didn't sound like that would last in the pro game..)

6: Reynolds, said he was wiry strong, good athlete, good bat speed, can play anywhere. I believe compared him to Vizcaino defensively. Referred to his swing sometimes getting long due to his height. I assume that's the issue that he'll need to correct to succeed as a pro. Also, not from VineLine, but my understanding is that Reynolds has played almost all season with an injury, which may be responsible for why his hitting numbers weren't better.

7: Trey Taylor, referred to 82-89 mph fastball, big-time movement, and sharp breaking pitch.

8: Swoope (in my view the Cubs best scout, and not a gusher...) gushed about 20-year-old Muyco's defense. I'm not sure even Ryan Jorgensen got such good buzz. Swoope also said Muyco has good bat speed, although obviously HR-power is not in the picture.

9: Said Avery can throw 92 consistently when he's right, and has good movement. Obviously he isn't right and 92 consistently; but obviously the minors is to help guys lock into doing things correctly.

10: Simokaitas: Didn't scout as weak a hitter as I expected. Didn't scout as great defensively as I expected.

 

Anyway, the reports were as long or a little longer than BA reports. Several of the players I came away with revised perspectives. Veal as an action prospect, more than as a power-pitcher guy; Billek as a solid 3-pitch control pitcher, rather than as an erratic unrefined power guy; Taylor as not so fast or so fantastic as BA made him sound; Reynolds and Muyco as not so hapless and hopeless as BA made them sound.

 

Thanks for the info, Craig.

 

2: It seems like Veal's fastball is generally average, but it flashes mid-90's speed sometimes. The hope would be that because of his easy mechanics and projection, he'll be able to improve that velocity in the future.

3: Good to hear favorable comments about his breaking pitch. I'm guessing the slurve is also known as his slider, which is a hard low-80's pitch.

3: Interesting comments about Billek. I have seen his change-up (his third pitch) generally referred to as "rarely used," something that he mixed in to give batters another look. I have read positive comments about his command, however.

4: I like Johnston, he's got some favorable tools on both sides of the ball.

5: I have always thought of Taylor as a guy who doesn't have one great pitch, but instead has three solid ones. His fastball was high-80's somtimes and reached the low-90's during the season. His body and arm action could make low-90's more consistant as a pro.

6: I've read some of the favorable comments about Reynolds; the wiry, bat speed, atheltic stuff, but I don't really buy it. I understand that he's had some injury bugs this year, but his 2004 numbers don't warrent a 6th round selection either. His K/BB was horrendous, he didn't show much power and his fielding percentage was low as a shortstop.

7: Taylor- bring on the crafty lefty comps

8: I don't think anyone questions Muyco's defensive skills. It's nice to hear that there are some positives with the bat (bat speed), but I don't see him being much more than a backup.

9: If Avery can revert to his 2004 Cape Cod performance, the Cubs may have a steal.

10: The more I read and analyze Simokaitis, the more I like his chances.

[T2E]

Rounds 11-20 have been completed and should be up sometime this weekend.