Dear Cubs - don't let the Maddux option vest

[katway]

The Cubs deal with Maddux is $9M if he reaches 400 innings over 2 years. That's it...that's the deal. There is no stipulation on ERA, wins, etc. If the Cubs wanted such a contingency, then they should have made it part of the deal. To try to backdoor such a contingency by sitting the guy so his option doesn't vest would be classless and not in line with the deal they already made. What if D. Lee decided to sit out the second half unless he gets another $10M. The Cubs wouldn't be alright with that... You can't start changing the deal midway through the contract by sabotaging things. A deal is a deal. The deal was for innings pitched...nothing else

[frostwyrm]

W-L is actually worse than useless, because not only is it devoid of meaning, but it serves to confuse and misrepresent.

[CubinNY]

The phrase "Maddux knows how to win" is pointless. Maddux *knew* how to pitch like one of the best pitchers in baseball. From 1992-2002, an 11 year stretch, he was among the top 8 in the NL in ERA; in all but one of those years he was among the top 4 in the NL in ERA. Combine that with his durability and a good Braves offense and bullpen, and he was pretty much a lock to win 15 games every year. Since 2002 however, his ERA (and ERA+) have been markedly worse. He's continued to win games, but his winning the last couple of years owes a lot more to good fortune from run support than it does the quality of his pitching. His durability, of course, helps him get wins simply because he makes 33 starts a year.

 

His stats this year continue to suggest he's regressing and is little more than an average pitcher with a great career behind him. You can probably count on him to be on the mound every 5 days next season and to pitch like an average major league starter, but if that's all you want for $9M per year then you're throwing your money away.

 

Nice post Truffle.

 

I think that is where the argument about Maddux begins and ends. Maddux is not the same pitcher he once was. The Cubs bought the premium Maddux and are only getting the mid-grade Maddux but are still paying premium prices. I have to agree

 

The only thing I can say is, buyer beware.

[Backtobanks]

W-L is actually worse than useless, because not only is it devoid of meaning, but it serves to confuse and misrepresent.

 

W-L is still the measuring stick for starting pitchers (i.e. 20-game winner, 300 wins = HOF, etc.). You may not agree with using W-L, but most people still know the 20-game winners over the ERA leaders.

[neely crenshaw]

you forced me to research this. yes 8-6 with a 4.67 era sounds pretty lucky but maddux has not won a single game this year that he he did not pitch outstanding in. in his 8 wins he has not allowed more than 3 runs and a total of 14 earned runs. less than 2 per win. his era is below 2.00. he also has 3 other starts that he gave up 3 or less but got no decisions. if he were lucky he would he have wins there. he has not won a single "slugfest" where the cubs offense won the game and he got a win. if he were truly lucky or pitched for some offensive juggernaut he might be a lucky pitcher with a 12-13 wins and 4 losses. then you could call him lucky.

[1wizard]

Neely Crenshaw wrote:

you forced me to research this. yes 8-6 with a 4.67 era sounds pretty lucky but maddux has not won a single game this year that he he did not pitch outstanding in. in his 8 wins he has not allowed more than 3 runs and a total of 14 earned runs. less than 2 per win. his era is below 2.00. he also has 3 other starts that he gave up 3 or less but got no decisions. if he were lucky he would he have wins there. he has not won a single "slugfest" where the cubs offense won the game and he got a win. if he were truly lucky or pitched for some offensive juggernaut he might be a lucky pitcher with a 12-13 wins and 4 losses. then you could call him lucky.

 

Great research!

 

I think we all know Maddux is not the Maddux of old, but very few pitchers will ever match what he had in his prime. The main point here is that Greg Maddux is still a winner and will earn his money for next year.

 

If the Cubs need more money to spend than they need to build a new stadium, or find new owners.

[UK1679666180]

yes 8-6 with a 4.67 era sounds pretty lucky but maddux has not won a single game this year that he he did not pitch outstanding in. in his 8 wins he has not allowed more than 3 runs and a total of 14 earned runs. less than 2 per win. his era is below 2.00.

 

That's the sign of a mediocre pitcher. If you're able to pitch that well in your wins and still be much closer to 5 than 4 as far as ERA, you're a streaky pitcher.

[Laura]

[herring]Maddux tied for the Cubs staff lead in wins in 2004[/herring]

 

Maddux lead the staff in games started and innings pitched in 2004.

 

[herring]At the 2005 All-Star Break, Maddux leads the Cubs staff in wins.[/herring]

 

Maddux leads the Cubs staff in games started and innings pitched in 2005.

 

 

When I consider the money paid out to date and money to be paid out in the future -- assuming since he was signed that Maddux would pitch his 400 innings -- I still don't think the problem, pitching or pitching/$, is the innings that Maddux pitches.

 

The Cubs BIG problem is the innings that all the young alternative-to-Maddux stud pitchers haven't been pitching for the past season and a half.

 

I hope that one of the under-30-crowd of pitchers can surpass Maddux by the end of this season in terms of innings pitched, if not in games started. I would assume that Zambrano should, at the very least. He's already just one inning or so behind Maddux with less starts. So Z has that going for him (Z can look into lowering that ERA himself, though)

 

But until just one of those young studs does manage to pitch an inning more or start a game more than 39-year-old Greg Maddux this year or over a 2-year-period, I'm not shedding too many tears about his salary, present and future.

 

I think he's simultaneously overpaid and undervalued. He can still do his job. I'm just hoping he can pass along some tips about pitching every five days to the rest of the crew.

 

Viva Maddux!

 

ETA: I have no problem with him being traded, though. I'm not sure how many good fits there are out there, especially given his no-trade clause. Some of the San Diego suggestions posted here have seemed reasonable.

Edited July 13, 2005 by Laura

[gus_dog]

yes 8-6 with a 4.67 era sounds pretty lucky but maddux has not won a single game this year that he he did not pitch outstanding in. in his 8 wins he has not allowed more than 3 runs and a total of 14 earned runs. less than 2 per win. his era is below 2.00.

 

That's the sign of a mediocre pitcher. If you're able to pitch that well in your wins and still be much closer to 5 than 4 as far as ERA, you're a streaky pitcher.

 

Inconsistent maybe, but not necessarily mediocre.

[UK1679666180]

I don't see how you can describe his performance as anything but mediocre?

 

He has allowed two more runs than an avg. pitcher would have allowed in the same timeframe, that's about as mediocre as you can get.

[gus_dog]

I don't see how you can describe his performance as anything but mediocre?

 

He has allowed two more runs than an avg. pitcher would have allowed in the same timeframe, that's about as mediocre as you can get.

 

To me, mediocre means that he is exactly that - average. I think of it like you can pretty much count on getting 4 runs a game off of him.

 

The stats posted above, IMO, clearly show he is either very good, or very bad - in other words, inconsistent.

 

If he was consistently average, then I would agree - mediocre, however he is not consistently average. In fact, he has been very inconsistent.

 

I may just be splitting hairs, but I think you are much more likely to get a good performance from Maddux than you would from your typical, average, every day, ordinary, garden variety mediocre pitcher.

[UK1679666180]

But, he's had almost equal amount of bad starts w/good ones. He can be inconsistent and still have more good starts than bad starts.

 

If you have 6 good starts, 2 avg. ones, 5 poor ones and that gives an overall stat line of an avg. pitcher, you're pretty avg. overall. The salary will determine if he is overpaid or underpaid for those services.

 

I may just be splitting hairs, but I think you are much more likely to get a good performance from Maddux than you would from your typical, average, every day, ordinary, garden variety mediocre pitcher.

 

This year, you probably are more likely to get an above avg. performance in one start and just as likely to get a poor outing. His overall numbers are that of an avg. pitcher.

[badgercub]

As far as I am concerned I am just looking at it as a sunk cost for next year. Barring retirement or a trade Maddux will be on the books and in the rotation. I think we can all agree that he is not the player he once was and that he is definitely overpaid at 9 million dollars a year. It was a deal Hendry felt he had to make after the run in '03. Being a GM you may not always make the right decision but you have to do what you think will give your team the best chance to win the W.S. When the deal was first made, I think we thought of Maddux as our #3 or #4 starter and that we overpaid for him for a chance at the W.S.

[TruffleShuffle]

Bumpity bumpity bump

[Illini Iceman]

Bumpity bumpity bump

 

His ERA in July was just barely over 3 coming into today and he has a bad inning so you bump the thread?

[TruffleShuffle]

Let's classify his starts in terms of quality... we'll go 1-5 with 5 being excellent and 1 being terrible:

 

5 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 6 K (1.5)

5 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 K (2.5)

6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K (3.5)

8 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K (4.5)

6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K (4)

6 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 5 K (2)

7.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 10 K (5)

5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 2 K (2)

7 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 1 K (3.5)

8.2 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 4 K (2.5)

6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K (4)

6 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K (3)

7.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K (3.5)

4.2 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 3 K (1)

6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 2 K (3)

6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K (3.5)

5 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 2 K (1)

6 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 5 K (1.5)

8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K (5)

8 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K (4)

5 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 4 K (2.5)

8 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K (4)

4 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 1 K (1)

 

5: 2

4.5: 1

4: 4

3.5: 4

3: 2

2.5: 3

2: 2

1.5: 2

1: 3

 

Average: 2.96

 

 

So with 3 as an OK start, he's had 11 above-average starts, 2 average and 10 below-average. That, plus the average score of around 3 per game puts Maddux at exactly what he is - a league-average pitcher.

[TruffleShuffle]

Bumpity bumpity bump

 

His ERA in July was just barely over 3 coming into today and he has a bad inning so you bump the thread?

 

And now his July ERA is over 4. You can find all the obscure stats you want, but the painful fact of the matter is that he's no longer a good pitcher.

[Backtobanks]

When I saw Arizona's lineup with all of those lefties, I knew the Cubs were in trouble today. Maddux has trouble with lefties.

[imb]

Any lineup with Gonzo in it means trouble for Maddux.

[mhuber92211]

anyone else think that Maddux may retire at season's end?

[badger1679666666]

anyone else think that Maddux may retire at season's end?

 

We'll see if his pride is greater than 9 million free dollars.

[TruffleShuffle]

anyone else think that Maddux may retire at season's end?

 

The Cubs should offer him $3M to retire.

[YearofDaCubs]

Maddux wont retire.

[TruffleShuffle]

Maddux wont retire.

 

Thanks for the input... I assume you are his accountant, gardener or close personal friend to be able to make such a judgment?

[katway]

anyone else think that Maddux may retire at season's end?

 

The Cubs should offer him $3M to retire.

 

And if he says no, you've just ticked him off and still owe him 9 million to play next year. Let's see what kind of determination he has to play if you tell him he's not wanted. Hendry would not make that kind of mistake.