Verbalizing Some Last-Minute Anxieties About the 2025 Chicago Cubs

[RandallPnkFloyd]

The runup to Opening Day contains a strange cocktail of intrigue, anticipation, and eerie calm. It's a combination that spikes the ol' anxiety in someone such as myself.

Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

I catastrophize. Mostly over smaller scale, trivial things. But the physical response is the same as if it were a big thing. The anticipation element of the day before Opening Day stems from the fact that we don't actually know what'll unfold over the course of 162 games. While the postseason itself may end up rather "chalky," getting there requires navigating a series of unknowns and singular moments that create a collective, coherent season—a story. The possibilities exist in the abstract until we have late-summer certainty. 

It's the abstract with which I struggle, in particular. And it's the abstract in which I find myself thinking about this year's group. Given that, it's no surprise that as roster news trickles out about the fringes of major-league rosters, my thoughts about the 2025 Chicago Cubs have begun to spiral. The following is where my anxieties have taken me, ahead of the big day. 

What If? #1: What if Cam Smith is incredible? 
This is something that I—and virtually anyone else with any association with this organization—have been turning over in my mind in the latter stages of the spring. The Cubs sent Smith to Houston as part of the package to acquire Kyle Tucker, with the assumption that Tucker would provide more immediate value on the offensive side. Of course, Smith then went on to hit .342, reach base at a .419 clip, and post a 186 wRC+ across 43 spring plate appearances, leaving himself entrenched in right field for the Astros to start 2025. 

In a vacuum, the Cubs are not going to regret trading 2025 Cam Smith for 2025 Kyle Tucker. The latter is one of the best dozen hitters in Major League Baseball, and the type of catalyst they've lacked in recent years. He's the superior player; we'd be kidding ourselves to think otherwise.

But the trade doesn't exist in a vacuum. If Smith can reach any level of stardom in 2025 while Tucker plays out a single year on the North Side—all while Jed Hoyer failed to push chips in further for the season—then things get a little bit questionable. A long-term contract for Tucker becomes imperative. Will the team even approach him about an extension? Will they even talk long-term next winter? It sure feels like this is a one-and-done type of thing at present, and that feeling is going to paint the deal in a wildly unfavorable light given the additional context.

The paradox of enjoying the one year of Tucker while being aware of Smith is going to require an Olympic gold-worthy routine of mental gymnastics for some. I'm worried I'm among them.

What If? #2: What if Pete Crow-Armstrong can't stop swinging?
Despite the positional difference, it isn't a stretch to compare Pete Crow-Armstrong and Javier Báez. Elite defensive tools, incredible vibes, offensive upside, and a complete inability to stop swinging the bat. As the heading indicates, it's the last bit that I'm a little concerned about. 

Through 436 career plate appearances, Crow-Armstrong owns a strikeout rate of 24.8%. Only three hitters with more than 400 trips to the plate last year had a higher swing rate than Crow-Armstrong's 59.2%. Only six chased more than his 43.5% of pitches outside the zone. And while he was able to maintain decent contact rates, we watched him start the year in Tokyo swinging at over 70 percent of the pitches he saw across seven plate appearances.

It's something that has the potential to become entirely untenable within this lineup. While the defensive and baserunning value will help to keep his profile viable, there's an upside here that could be completely stifled if he can't rein it in at least somewhat. He's capable of it. We saw him tone things down in a pretty successful August. To this point, though, we have no reason to believe it can be sustained quite yet.

What If? #3: What if Matt Shaw isn't the guy? 
This is a natural concern about any prospect, and just because he isn't the guy at third base immediately doesn't at all mean he can't be the guy at third base later on. If the latter rings true, though, the Cubs are going to have a massive short-term problem on their hands. 

I've mentioned the absence of a safety net on multiple occasions. While the team had indicated they'd let Shaw "earn" the job, it was always his following the trade of Isaac Paredes. We've seen Shaw in two "real" games, wherein he was able to record his first hit. But the bat looked slow and he looked overmatched. Should he prove to need a bit more developmental time or require a reset in Iowa, I'm not exactly sure in which direction the Cubs could turn. Their depth options include Jon Berti and Gage Workman. Berti is a light-hitting utility player, and Workman has decent upside but exactly zero big-league experience. 

To say Shaw's rookie campaign is crucial to the collective almost becomes an understatement. If he's not the guy right away, he may be fine. But I'm not sure the team will be.

What If? #4: What if the Cubs are just...mid all over again?
The Cubs did quite a lot this winter. But did they do enough? 

Ahead of the 2024 season, we were in a particularly frustrating place. The team came out hot in hiring Craig Counsell, and then proceeded to do very little to support their new manager from a personnel standpoint. This year, the Cubs struck fast and loud by acquiring Tucker, but other areas of need were left unaddressed, or only lightly upgraded. The rotation has some depth, but it's ultimately a collection of lower-velocity types reliant on location and movement. Which is fine! You'd still like to see at least a little velo coming out at the start of games, though. Not landing Alex Bregman really felt like the pivotal failure.

Ultimately, this anxiety is not about whether or not the Cubs did enough. It's what happens if they didn't do enough. Jed Hoyer's contract is up at the end of the season. Tucker's a free agent. Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ, and Seiya Suzuki each have one year remaining after this one. The pitching staff isn't exactly young. The timeline on even the upper-level prospects remains unclear. It has the potential to get a bit messy. 

The Cubs are favorites, by most accounts, to win the division. Objectively, they should win the division. One imagines they'll be active at the trade deadline if they are, in fact, contending. But there's also a troubling absence of any certainty beyond 2025, especially if the success for which they are projected doesn't come to fruition.

To clarify, I'm not worried about the Cubs being bad. But only three teams in the league have a longer active drought between playoff wins than this one. They've been hovering in sports purgatory for the last handful of years already. Another middling season could force them into a more permanent residence.

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[We Got The Whole 9]

What if Tucker doesn't bounce-back from his injury? There was an article a little bit ago that surmised he might have a shift in his approach and hold back on some of the lower pitches.

My #1 concern is Steele and Shota's health. I don't think we have the horses to holdup to extended absences.

I am also looking at the Bellinger move and can't help but be miffed because they didn't spend the money, Poteet is trash and has already been DFA, and Bellinger will probably rake in YS. Middle finger to that one.

[Bertz]

I think for me, heading into the season I'm worried about 3 things

1. There are a lot of old guys on this pitching staff - I am generally agnostic about pitcher age, but even for me it's unnerving that we have more pitchers on the team over 35 than under 25. Shota is the median aged pitcher on the staff! Hodge, Pearson, Morgan and Brown are the only guys on the OD roster under 29! Some of this is a snapshot in time before Iowa arms start percolating up, but in the meantime there will be at least one of the older guys who goes all Kyle Hendricks on us.  I just hope it's Rea or Brasier rather than Pressly or Taillon

2. The rotation and bullpen each feel a guy short - This feels a little less true than it did in February because Merryweather and Brown (and despite opening at Iowa, Wicks) all appear to be back at full strength. But still, for all of the great work done to build out this team's depth, unless Jed *really* nailed the Boyd signing this winter was light on adding impact to the top of the staff

3. The bottom half of the batting order has a chance to be a problem - Swanson and Hoerner are coming off injury and as you point out above the youths obviously come with question marks. Individually I expect each guy to end up within a stones throw of average offensively, but simple odds are one or two guys will faceplant. I ascribe to the belief that lineups with gaping holes tend to underperform the sum of their parts (call it the Heyward/Almora theorem).  So if we have another situation like last year where PCA and Amaya were both catastrophically bad for multiple months, it could be a really big problem even if e.g. Tucker's hitting like an MVP

[JunkyardWalrus]

They didn't do enough. Not even close. Salary dump bs, the Tucktuck trade without extension and a starting pitcher you hope makes half his starts? 

It's another goddam low to mid 80 win team. They should be booed in the streets and shamed in their houses of worship.

It's horsefeathers inexcusable to small-market another off season. Jed should be let go before the sell off at mid season. 

Go cubs!