Pete Crow-Armstrong Will Break Out In 2025, Regardless Of The Naysayers

Pete Crow-Armstrong may never be the Chicago Cubs’ “best” player. But it probably doesn’t matter.

In his time with the Cubs, there were two occasions in which Javier Báez led the team by various Wins Above Replacement metrics. But in the organization’s previous era, he hardly would’ve been labeled their best player given the more outright stability provided by some of his contemporaries from the championship and championship-adjacent seasons. I don’t know that Crow-Armstrong will ever reach even those heights on the stat sheet. He does, however, represent as integral a presence as Báez provided during his stay on the North Side. For eerily similar reasons.

Because what Pete Crow-Armstrong can provide goes beyond the stat sheet. In the same way that it did with Javy. It’s a certain level of can’t-miss excitement that exists within a paradox of very in-your-face drawbacks. 

We’ve seen that in action this spring. He’s turned a steal of second into a run scored. Taking third on a wild pitch turned into another. A single to left resulted in a little league home run of its own. And when the speed isn’t on display, the power has been. Just last week, we saw a multi-homer game that included a grand slam. In what has been a wildly successful exhibition slate for the collective, it’s been PCA grabbing our attention rather forcefully.

The spring numbers are reflective of that, too. Crow-Armstrong has slashed an absurd .520/.500/1.040/1.540 with a hefty .520 ISO. On the other side of that, of course, resides his 26.9 K% and 0.0 BB%. That’s not a misprint. Crow-Armstrong has not recorded a walk in 26 plate appearances. 

Which speaks to the fact that the wart(s) in his game are still there. While we saw him rein in the free-swinging ways for a short stint last August, it’s not something that we should expect to be permanent. Heck, it didn’t even make it to the end of the season. More contact? Sure. But the approach isn’t likely going to change too radically in a way that turns him into some kind of walk machine. It’s why we aren’t likely to see PCA atop the lineup anytime soon.

But like we saw in Javy’s time with the organization, you can compensate plenty for hacking irresponsibly if you have the other components of your game in order. And you can make people forget about it altogether if you do things in a manner that keeps their eyeballs happy and their anxiety up just a touch. 

The Cubs aren’t an organization known for possessing head-turning talent. Not that those players grow on trees; it’s almost like they’re limited to a few organizations. Even the higher-quality Cub teams of the last decade have had fundamentally sound foundations with which to work, even with occasional charisma thrown in. But only Báez represented the type of talent that led other fanbases to tune into what was happening within a given situation involving the Cubs. There was obscene flair, wrought by instinct and a natural showmanship. It highlighted the things he did well and led us to ignore the things he didn’t. 

Pete Crow-Armstrong is an exceptional defender. He was tied as the league’s second-best position player by FRV (16) despite only appearing in 123 games. He’s an elite baserunner, borne not only out of the aforementioned instincts but by 99th percentile sprint speed. If the spring season is to be believed, there’s more power in there, too.

The type of value a player like PCA can bring — assuming we get the breakout that appears legitimately on the cusp — is and is not quantifiable. We’ll look to some of the approach figures. The defensive analytics. But we’ll also recognize the ability shift a game by forcing a mistake on the bases or closing an inning with an incredible defensive play. Those less-quantifiable elements offer the type of presence that the team has not had since they sent Baéz to Queens.

The Cubs have a solid roster, top to bottom. They have plenty of upper tier names on either side of the ball. They even have an Actually Elite™ player on their roster with Kyle Tucker’s addition. But Pete Crow-Armstrong is the guy who can turn a game around with one play, for better or worse. With plenty to get jazzed about with the season so close, it’s the potential explosion of a new volatile star on the North Side that stands above the rest.