With No Alex Bregman, There's No Safety Net Beneath Matt Shaw and the Cubs

As position players officially report to spring training for the Chicago Cubs, we now know that Alex Bregman will not be among them. Even for someone (such as myself) who has been highly critical of Jed Hoyer & Co. for being so risk-averse, it’s hard to find too much fault in their missing out this time. The Cubs’ reported offer tells us that they gave it the old college try, with his massive new AAV indicative of how much Boston had to overpay in order to lock him down.

While the frustration is muted, though, it’s tough to argue against the continued presence of a slightly different emotion: concern. Matt Shaw now has no safety net.

With or without Bregman, it was likely that Shaw was looking at a starting gig. There were going to be some logistical considerations had the team signed Bregman, which could have involved moving Nico Hoerner to offset some salary and, subsequently, maintain a clear path for Shaw. In that case, the team’s top prospect would still have a clear path to a starting gig. But in that particular scenario, Bregman’s offensive upside would have provided more overall compensation for any early shortcomings from Shaw than Hoerner can offer. The shape of his arrival would have been different, given Bregman’s more impactful offensive skill set and (thus) the reduced pressure to get production from Shaw. With Bregman, he would have batted eighth or ninth for much of the season. As things stand, if he hits the way they hope he will, he might end up batting fifth.

The Cubs have indicated that they are not merely going to hand Shaw the keys to the third base gig, but it’s hard to imagine the team’s collection of light-hitting bench options supplanting him out of the gate. It’s his job to lose. While the clarity is a positive thing for a prospective contender, the current construction of the roster offers no contingency. If Shaw struggles to maintain his grip on the role, it’ll be a massive detriment to the team’s offensive output. 

Options that would’ve reinforced some stability existed this winter, outside of Bregman. Yoán Moncada was one. Josh Rojas was another. Either would have made sense, to slow down the aggression on Shaw’s timeline and provide some extra pop off the bench once he was ready to hit at the top level. Each also came with some level of versatility. Such an addition would have made me feel much more comfortable about the configuration of the big-league roster.

Overall, though, it’s not as if there was a wealth of options. But given that those two specific hitters ended up with the non-contending Angels and White Sox, respectively, one wonders if the Cubs pushed as much as they likely should have to add a bit more short-term certainty to their roster. Of course, it’s entirely possible there were playing time considerations on the part of the players themselves that made that irrelevant from the start. Short of lying to them, it's hard to get players with a chance to start somewhere to take a bench gig instead.

In any case, the current infield setup for the Cubs is going to feature Shaw on Opening Day, regardless of what team leadership might say publicly. If he struggles, we could see Jon Berti or Vidal Bruján or Gage Workman or even Nicky Lopez. Given the offensive shortcomings of each of those names, however, we are presented with two sides to the Matt Shaw coin.

The first is the overly pessimistic one. If he struggles to the point where he needs to be demoted to regain traction as a hitter, the Cubs are likely to be in a precarious spot with their third base production. At that point, you’ll likely need to look outside the organization to strengthen the lineup, but outside of someone like Brett Baty, there aren’t a ton of obvious trade candidates who present an enticing level of even hypothetical upside at the plate. It would be an extremely problematic development for the Cubs, from a lineup standpoint.

The other, more positive side is that Shaw’s run is going to be unfettered. Craig Counsell isn’t going to be tempted to give him a quick hook, given that he possesses superior offensive talent to those on the bench. He’ll have a chance to work through some things as needed. And we know he has the ability to adjust. So while there’s an element of apprehension associated with Shaw’s role, there’s also a certain positive anticipation, given the extended opportunity he’s essentially locked into at this point.

None of this is new or mysterious information. Shaw is the third baseman. He might struggle. He might not. He might not struggle early, and then struggle later, and then stop struggling again. Few big-league arrivals give way to uninterrupted success. There’s an obvious risk inherent in this process.

The fact that the Cubs have now officially missed out on Alex Bregman not only locks Shaw into the gig, but removes a potential safety net altogether. It's not too late to change that, but if they don't, the good news will be that Shaw has real promise. He might just make this decision look really good, in time.