Chicago Cubs 2025 Offseason Top-20 Prospects: No. 1 Matt Shaw

[Jason Ross]

It was always going to be Matt Shaw at the top. With trades opening up possibilities on the infield, it's a near lock we'll see the prospect in Chicago. What should we expect from Shaw in 2025?

Image courtesy of © Cody Scanlan/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK

Today, we continue our review of the Top 20 Chicago Cubs prospects (as voted on by the readers of NSBB).

Before you read about Matt Shaw, don't miss our previous Top 20 Cubs Prospect articles, including our look at some honorable mentions, the Cubs' Top Prospects #20-16 and the Top Prospects #15-11. 

#20 - Pedro Ramirez, INF
#19 - Luis Vazquez, INF
#18 - Michael Arias, RP
#17 - Alfonsin Rosario - OF
#16 - Drew Gray, SP
#15 - Jonathon Long, 1B
#14 - Fernando Cruz, SS
#13 - Derniche Valdez, SS
#12 - Alexander Canario, OF
#11 - Cristian Hernandez, SS
#10 - Brandon Birdsell, SP
#9 - Jaxon Wiggins, SP
#8 - Jefferson Rojas
#7 - James Triantos 
#6 - Cam Smith
#5 - Kevin Alcantara, OF
#4 - Moises Ballesteros, C/1B/DH
#3 - Owen Caissie, OF
#2 - Cade Horton, SP

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2024 Season Review - Matt Shaw, 2B/3B
Matt Shaw entered the 2024 season with all sorts of helium. After blowing through A-ball and even holding his own in Double-A during the season's twilight, expectations for the former Terrapin were sky-high. It would be all but fair to say that despite the expectations, the infielder met most/all of them and may have managed to exceed them, as well. 

One of the big knocks on the diminutive infielder entering the 2024 season was his penchant for being aggressive and probably too aggressive. While his hit tool allows Shaw to make contact often, this is exploitable at higher levels as pitchers will look to take an aggressive swinger and force them to make weak contact by having them make contact on chase pitches. This was a point of emphasis for the Cubs and their top prospect, and it paid off throughout the year, as Shaw didn't just double his walk rate but nearly tripled it (sitting at mid-4% in both South Bend and his first stint in Tennessee in 2023), by walking 12% of the time throughout the season. 

There were a few learning curves, however, as initially, Shaw had some kinks to work out. Despite posting a pretty nice 120 wRC+ through his first 103 PAs, there was a lack of power displayed, with a lackluster .354 SLG and an ISO that had fallen under .150. This was only a temporary dip, though, as after that power outage, there was an adjustment, and Shaw would go on to see his SLG jump over .500 with an ISO over .200 the rest of the way. This would earn a promotion to Iowa in early August. 

Once again, Shaw saw initial struggles as he adapted to his new home in Triple-A, struggling out of the gate to a pedestrian 100 wRC+ through his first month. The walk rates remained good, but like the early portion of the 2024 year in Double-A, the power was not following suit. The light kicked on for the Cubs' #1 prospect on August 29th, and Shaw finished with a sparkling 166 wRC+, spanning almost 100 PAs. 

Shaw wasn't done after Triple-A, as he was involved in the Premier 12, an international tournament that sees a wide array of players taking part, which includes some of the best prospects and professionals (from non-MLB leagues). Showing that his final month in Triple-A was no fluke, Matt would go bonkers all tournament, leading the league in batting average, RBI, hits, OBP, triples, and total bases. For context, Matt Shaw put up better numbers than Seiya Suzuki had the year before coming to the States. 

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Season Outlook and Scouting Report - ETA: Opening Day 2025
In December, the Cubs acquired Kyle Tucker for Isaac Paredes (their starting third baseman at the time) and Cam Smith (who we ranked our 6th-best prospect and the second-best third baseman in the system), clearing the way for Matt Shaw to take over. With all the moving parts, the one constant seems to be - the Chicago Cubs believe their 2023 first-round pick is ready, and ready right now. But just how good will he be right away? 

A few things should give us a little pause - the first being that if we looked league-wide in 2024, some of the best prospects on the planet (Jackson Chourio and Jackson Holliday are just two to name) struggled initially for large swaths of time. To expect Shaw, who's generally considered a tier below them, to hit the ground running when they couldn't is probably an unfair expectation. Instead, expect a season in which he struggles, makes adjustments, and bounces between adjusting and thriving the rest of the way. 

Beyond that, a few things should be noted, but I think they fall short of being entirely "red flag" territory (at least, to this point). Shaw does use a pretty pronounced leg kick, which helps generate power through his small frame. This could be exploited at higher levels with even more advanced pitching - MLB pitchers will hit you like you've never been hit before. Also, Shaw does not pull the ball a ton, and this probably has something to do with his setup - it's a definite "toe-in" start, which means it'll just be a bit harder to pull the ball. 

Why do I stop short of worrying too much; all of these remain squarely in the "hypothetical" category; Shaw has shown aptitude in catching up to velocity and fastballs at a very high level and generally excelled offensively in 2024 regardless of level. Thus far, pitchers have yet to find a way to exploit either his leg kick (as he's posted well above Triple-A contact levels) and his SLG/ISO remain well above league average despite not being a massive-pull hitter. He also shows above-average exit velocity on two-strike counts in which he limits the leg kick, so there seems to be power potential there, regardless. And while the leg kick and the toe-in make him look funny, he wouldn't be the first MLB hitter to do things in a unique way.

So, how good do I think Matt Shaw is? Frankly, I think he's very good. He makes contact (a lot). He's got above-average power despite his frame. He's shown an ability and aptitude to change things about his approach. He's worked very hard defensively, and reports on his work at third are strong. He's athletic enough that he's going to add value on the bases. And I'll appeal to authority a bit - but the team who drafted him has seemingly made him unavailable in trade talks and forced open a spot for him on the MLB roster in a way they haven't done for others. I don't think his rookie season will be flawless, and there will be growing pains...but I'm pretty convinced we've got a good one on our hands. 

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What do you think of Matt Shaw? Do you think he's a good bet in 2025? What are your expectations for the rookie? Let us know in the comments below!

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[CubinNY]

I'm looking forward to seeing how good he can be. I remember when he was drafted and Marquee interviewed him and he said. "I can't wait to go out and fail with the best of them". That is the perfect approach for a hitter in MLB. I think he's going to hit for average and spray the ball all over the field. I'm more than a little worried about the power, but if he becomes mostly a doubles hitter and plays above-average defense, that is pretty good. I'd love for him to become a star player, a boy can dream. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

I'm looking forward to seeing how good he can be. I remember when he was drafted and Marquee interviewed him and he said. "I can't wait to go out and fail with the best of them". That is the perfect approach for a hitter in MLB. I think he's going to hit for average and spray the ball all over the field. I'm more than a little worried about the power, but if he becomes mostly a doubles hitter and plays above-average defense, that is pretty good. I'd love for him to become a star player, a boy can dream. 

I think its alright to be a little skeptical of the power - he does generate power through a leg kick and he isn't particularly large. And while I don't want to comp Shaw directly to Altuve, but Altuve has managed to put up a career of hitting over 20 home runs and ISO's north of. 200 despite being 3 inches shorter and also using a large leg kick. Not all short kings are Altuve, and he's had some Crawford box help, but I wouldn't ignore that based on that, either. Zack Neto is a good example of someone who managed to lose the leg kick and still find the power. 

 

I bring that up because Shaw has consistently posted ISO's north of .200 through the minors using a big leg kick and being a short king. If there's a concern it's more the pull-rate, but every time he goes up a level he just keeps crushing baseballs. So I'm willing to allow Shaw to keep doing his thing before my skepticism moves into anything more than a yellow flag. Sometimes dudes just do things uniquely. Shaw does enough well that I'm willing to think "this might just be someone who does things funny lookin'"

[mul21]

54 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think its alright to be a little skeptical of the power - he does generate power through a leg kick and he isn't particularly large. And while I don't want to comp Shaw directly to Altuve, but Altuve has managed to put up a career of hitting over 20 home runs and ISO's north of. 200 despite being 3 inches shorter and also using a large leg kick. Not all short kings are Altuve, and he's had some Crawford box help, but I wouldn't ignore that based on that, either. Zack Neto is a good example of someone who managed to lose the leg kick and still find the power. 

 

I bring that up because Shaw has consistently posted ISO's north of .200 through the minors using a big leg kick and being a short king. If there's a concern it's more the pull-rate, but every time he goes up a level he just keeps crushing baseballs. So I'm willing to allow Shaw to keep doing his thing before my skepticism moves into anything more than a yellow flag. Sometimes dudes just do things uniquely. Shaw does enough well that I'm willing to think "this might just be someone who does things funny lookin'"

I can't come up with a really equivalent comp, so I'm going with a Pedroia/Uggla hybrid. 

[Jason Ross]

45 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I can't come up with a really equivalent comp, so I'm going with a Pedroia/Uggla hybrid. 

Dustin Pedroia is my best 1 for 1 comp. I think Pedroia's walk totals will be higher than Shaw's (even with Shaw jumping to the double digit range, I think that'll come down a bit against better pitching...but maybe?). Pedroia will probably be the better defender, but I think maybe Shaw will surprise there (every time I hear someone talk about his defense it's in a positive light) though Shaw probably adds base running value. 

But yeah, I think your "best case outcome" for Shaw is something around a four win guy many years, with a 120 wRC+, 15-20 home runs, 15+ steals and defensive value that is fine to slightly better than fine. Will he peak at 7 wins? If everything comes together and he puts an OAA darling of a season together? Wouldn't be insane, but I wouldn't count on it.

There's a bit to go, so that's best case scenario - and most people fall short of that.