Why Ha-Seong Kim Makes More Sense Than Alex Bregman for the Chicago Cubs

[RandallPnkFloyd]

Though the Astros third baseman is clearly the better player before accounting for context, this is baseball, and context matters.

Image courtesy of © Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

As Alex Bregman’s free agency continues on into the new year, his name has floated into close-ish proximity to that of the Chicago Cubs. It’s logical. The Cubs don’t technically have a third baseman and thanks to the Cody Bellinger trade, they do have some extra cash to spend. Bregman is a third baseman who will cost a lot of cash. On paper, you can see why the Cubs have been mentioned.

While the two make a sensible match in the abstract, however, a deal seems very unlikely in practice. Part of the Cubs’ motive in moving an infielder was to create some extra space for top prospect Matt Shaw. They did so, sending Isaac Paredes to Houston. Turning around and signing a big-dollar infielder exactly akin to Paredes (though better, to be sure) would be a bit inconsistent with their last couple of moves. There’s a logic to the connection on the surface, but additional context certainly doesn’t lend itself to the idea. 

Instead of Bregman, maybe the Cubs should be talking about another high-profile infielder, but one with more versatility and a lower price tag. Let’s talk about Ha-Seong Kim. 

Here’s a simple comparison between Bregman and Kim, from 2022 through 2024: 

• Bregman: 2,014 PA, .260/.349/.449, 12.4 K%, 11.1 BB%, .188 ISO, 127 wRC+

• Kim: 1,678 PA, .250/.336/.385, 17.9 K%, 11.0 BB%, .135 ISO, 106 wRC+

The advantage goes, of course, to Bregman. There isn’t a huge discrepancy in the slash lines, but Bregman has the notable power edge. While never reaching the 30-40 homer power we saw in 2018 and 2019, he’s hit at least 20 home runs in each of the last three seasons (74 in total). Kim has totaled just 39, topping out at 17 in 2023.

They also represent two different types of approach. Bregman is coming off his most aggressive season at the plate since his rookie year (44.9 Swing%). He makes contact at a high rate despite that (88.5 percent) and didn’t experience a big uptick in strikeouts, either. Kim, meanwhile, has decreased his Swing% in each of his four seasons in Major League Baseball, bottoming out at 37.8% last year. His increase in Contact% (85.7% in 2024) can be at least somewhat attributed to that. So, too, can his strikeout rate, which is somewhat the result of working deep counts and a 23.7% called strike percentage.

In a vacuum, Bregman’s the guy you want. But given the Cubs’ specific needs, this isn't an "in a vacuum" situation. When it comes to the Cubs' actual needs, you’re not losing a ton with Kim over Bregman. You still get a quality approach, plenty of contact, and the resulting on-base ability. You lose out on the some of the power, sure. But it’s not as if there’s this huge dropoff anywhere else.

More importantly, widening the lens to take in their defensive profiles, Kim is exactly the type of infielder the Cubs should be targeting with their situation. Bregman has played almost exclusively third base to this point in his career, with an additional several hundred innings at shortstop (where he was below average, even at a much younger age). He’s lingered at average to above at the hot corner. There have been some reports he’d consider swapping positions (something that wouldn’t be necessary with the Cubs). On the other hand, Kim is someone who’s already done it—and done it well.

With the Padres, Kim logged over 1,000 innings at second base, 2,500ish at shortstop, and almost 600 at third. He was elite at the keystone, above-average in his last work at third, and above average at the six. There’s a level of versatility already demonstrated here. Because of that (and because he'd cost so much less), there’s an argument to be made that while Bregman represents the objectively better bat, Kim represents the objectively better fit. 

The Cubs want to hand the third base job over to Matt Shaw with a solid safety net beneath him. But while the possibility of someone like Yoán Moncada still exists elsewhere in this conversation, they don’t have a contingency in place at present. Really, the same could be said for much of the infield. Vidal Bruján (can’t hit), Miles Mastrobuoni (can’t hit), Gage Workman (hasn’t played above Double-A and maybe can’t hit), Luis Vázquez (really can't hit) and Benjamin Cowles (might hit someday) represent the infield depth currently on the 40-man roster.

Ha-Seong Kim not only represents a stopgap at third base that allows you to ease Shaw in more gradually, he also offers a high-quality contingency across the entire infield. If Shaw hits in the spring but Nico Hoerner isn’t ready due to his offseason arm surgery, you’ve got him for second base. When Dansby Swanson needs a blow—and we’ve seen him burn out or fight nagging injuries at times—you’ve got Kim for shortstop. At a much lower price and a much shorter term than the elder Bregman will command, that feels like a better deal.

I’m not advocating for the Cubs not spending money to improve their roster. But the reality is that they’ll likely be a little more frugal with the extra wiggle room they’ve gained, in order to save some space for in-season acquisitions. They'd also like to direct some major resources toward reinforcing their pitching staff before the offseason is out. Projecting a deal for Kim is complicated given his injury status, but he'd certainly leave more room for that than signing Bregman would. 

When you consider the context, Kim would be an extraordinary addition to the Chicago infield. There's an important caveat to consider, which is the shoulder injury that ended his season prematurely and required surgery. But in providing a safety net for Shaw and serving as an effective utility option across the infield, the Cubs can enhance their roster stability substantially with a Kim signing.

I also watch a lot of San Diego Padres games, for what that's worth, and I think he’s neat—a balanced and dynamic player. But from a roster construction standpoint, there’s a lot of logic here. I could talk myself into Ha-Seong Kim before I could talk myself into Alex Bregman. Less than a week into the new year, I must be losing my mind. Or? 

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[ldnewton2]

You don't discuss Kim's contract situation. Is he a free agent or would he be a trade target? If a trade target, what would the Cubs need to send to SD? Thanks!

[SB in SC]

I think that you are correct about Kim being a better option because of his versatility.  If Hoerner has a set back in his rehab or Dansby gets hurt Kim is a better option than the Cubs in house options.  If the season started today the Cubs infield bench options are scary.

[Bertz]

The thing about Kim is that while he might be a good option for the Cubs, the Cubs are an awful option for him.  He is presumably going to take a 1 year pillow contract.  I'd think he'd want to go somewhere with a more clear path to playing time, particularly playing time at shortstop.  The Cubs would very clearly want Swanson, Hoerner and Shaw to play themselves in front of Kim.

[Rcal10]

57 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The thing about Kim is that while he might be a good option for the Cubs, the Cubs are an awful option for him.  He is presumably going to take a 1 year pillow contract.  I'd think he'd want to go somewhere with a more clear path to playing time, particularly playing time at shortstop.  The Cubs would very clearly want Swanson, Hoerner and Shaw to play themselves in front of Kim.

Correct. He is too good to play for the Cubs part time. 

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Correct. He is too good to play for the Cubs part time. 

This is one of those scenarios where if the Cubs moved Nico for a young top starter to slot in front of Taillon then it makes a lot of sense, but as constituted Kim would be a bench guy even if he would still probably see 400 PAs