Trading Seiya Suzuki Would Be A Mistake

[RandallPnkFloyd]

Even if the Cubs need to create more payroll flexibility, trading Seiya Suzuki is a bad way to get there.

Image courtesy of © David Kohl-Imagn Images

Earlier this week, Joel Sherman dropped a rather wild nugget into his argument that the New York Yankees should pursue Cody Bellinger even if they do, in fact, sign Juan Soto. Sherman reported that in addition to the Chicago Cubs’ shopping of Bellinger, they’re also pursuing a trade of fellow outfielder Seiya Suzuki. 

It’s important to note that the Cubs are shopping both but not aiming to trade both. It seems like an either/or to reallocate funds toward improvements elsewhere on the roster. Our friend, Brett Taylor, over at Bleacher Nation, shared his incredulity at the idea on Thursday. With respect to Suzuki, he noted both the offense provided for a team starved for offense and the more abstract concept of what this means for the intentioned pipeline the Cubs are attempting to create between Japan and the organization. 

While the offseason is still young, there was a point in it where I had talked myself into a trade of Seiya Suzuki as a logical one for the Cubs. My line of thinking there was primarily borne out of concern over his defense & playability in right field, which increased exponentially over the year. The Cubs aren’t a team that has appeared too keen on deploying a DH-only type of player. Given their logjam in the lineup, there was some degree of sense in it. 

I have since talked myself out of it in a significant way. Seiya paced the Cubs in wRC+ (138), OPS+ (also 138), on-base percentage (.366), and tied Ian Happ for the team lead in ISO (.199) among regulars. He finished 91^st percentile in HardHit% while falling in the five lowest swing rates and ten lowest chase rates among qualifying position players. I’ve talked about the need for impact in this lineup. The combination of approach, contact quality, and, ultimately, impact via the ISO metric is simply something you don’t move on from in the name of financial savings. 

Especially given that the savings wouldn’t be all that significant. While Bellinger carries a $27.5 million tag in 2025 & $25 million in ’26, Suzuki is on the books for $19 million each of the next two years. Even if you’re limiting your roster flexibility by having him serve primarily as the team’s designated hitter, his offensive value alone likely exceeds what you end up paying him. There’s a chance such a situation also keeps him healthier over longer stretches, too, which could, logically, lead to even greater heights on the offensive side of the ball. 

This, of course, lands in contrast to Bellinger’s situation. In terms of wRC+, Bellinger finished fifth on the team (behind even Mike Tauchman) and saw his ISO drop by almost 60 points from 2023 to 2024 (.161). The emergence of Michael Busch as the everyday first baseman and Pete Crow-Armstrong as the everyday center fielder presses Bellinger into right-field duty. He’s an obvious upgrade over Suzuki on the defensive side, but his bat doesn’t necessarily profile to feature the type of impact you’d like from the position. To say nothing of the opportunity to upgrade the lineup in that particular spot, barring an unforeseen move from someone we expect to be on the 2025 roster. There’s nowhere else to add that isn’t already occupied (catcher doesn’t count, given the lack of desirable options). And even that is in addition to having someone like Owen Caissie banging on the door of the big-league level. 

None of this is to dispel any value that Cody Bellinger does bring. He’s a wonderful contingency in the event of injury or struggles to either Busch or Crow-Armstrong, in addition to the defensive stability he offers in right field. But the idea that the Cubs are determined to move one of these two contracts sits as absurd to me. 

I’ve accepted the fact that for the Cubs to make the additions their roster requires—whether in the lineup or on the bump—they’re going to have to move a little bit of money around. It’s incomprehensible that this team in this market needs to do so, but that’s just the reality of how ownership and the front office operate. So, moving a little bit of money is a necessity given the… context. 

The concept of choosing between Cody Bellinger & Seiya Suzuki to generate more payroll flexibility is almost stranger, though. Unless the team legitimately wants to clear themselves of the idea of a singular DH and maintain roster versatility in totality, there doesn’t appear to be an argument here. While not nonexistent, Bellinger’s impact pales compared to what Suzuki’s bat offers. Given that the Cubs need that skill set in their lineup specifically, the merits of exploring a trade for either one of them simply do not exist. It’s Bellinger and not Suzuki.

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[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, RandallPnkFloyd said:

Even if the Cubs need to create more payroll flexibility, trading Seiya Suzuki is a bad way to get there.

Image courtesy of © David Kohl-Imagn Images

Earlier this week, Joel Sherman dropped a rather wild nugget into his argument that the New York Yankees should pursue Cody Bellinger even if they do, in fact, sign Juan Soto. Sherman reported that in addition to the Chicago Cubs’ shopping of Bellinger, they’re also pursuing a trade of fellow outfielder Seiya Suzuki. 

It’s important to note that the Cubs are shopping both but not aiming to trade both. It seems like an either/or to reallocate funds toward improvements elsewhere on the roster. Our friend, Brett Taylor, over at Bleacher Nation, shared his incredulity at the idea on Thursday. With respect to Suzuki, he noted both the offense provided for a team starved for offense and the more abstract concept of what this means for the intentioned pipeline the Cubs are attempting to create between Japan and the organization. 

While the offseason is still young, there was a point in it where I had talked myself into a trade of Seiya Suzuki as a logical one for the Cubs. My line of thinking there was primarily borne out of concern over his defense & playability in right field, which increased exponentially over the year. The Cubs aren’t a team that has appeared too keen on deploying a DH-only type of player. Given their logjam in the lineup, there was some degree of sense in it. 

I have since talked myself out of it in a significant way. Seiya paced the Cubs in wRC+ (138), OPS+ (also 138), on-base percentage (.366), and tied Ian Happ for the team lead in ISO (.199) among regulars. He finished 91^st percentile in HardHit% while falling in the five lowest swing rates and ten lowest chase rates among qualifying position players. I’ve talked about the need for impact in this lineup. The combination of approach, contact quality, and, ultimately, impact via the ISO metric is simply something you don’t move on from in the name of financial savings. 

Especially given that the savings wouldn’t be all that significant. While Bellinger carries a $27.5 million tag in 2025 & $25 million in ’26, Suzuki is on the books for $19 million each of the next two years. Even if you’re limiting your roster flexibility by having him serve primarily as the team’s designated hitter, his offensive value alone likely exceeds what you end up paying him. There’s a chance such a situation also keeps him healthier over longer stretches, too, which could, logically, lead to even greater heights on the offensive side of the ball. 

This, of course, lands in contrast to Bellinger’s situation. In terms of wRC+, Bellinger finished fifth on the team (behind even Mike Tauchman) and saw his ISO drop by almost 60 points from 2023 to 2024 (.161). The emergence of Michael Busch as the everyday first baseman and Pete Crow-Armstrong as the everyday center fielder presses Bellinger into right-field duty. He’s an obvious upgrade over Suzuki on the defensive side, but his bat doesn’t necessarily profile to feature the type of impact you’d like from the position. To say nothing of the opportunity to upgrade the lineup in that particular spot, barring an unforeseen move from someone we expect to be on the 2025 roster. There’s nowhere else to add that isn’t already occupied (catcher doesn’t count, given the lack of desirable options). And even that is in addition to having someone like Owen Caissie banging on the door of the big-league level. 

None of this is to dispel any value that Cody Bellinger does bring. He’s a wonderful contingency in the event of injury or struggles to either Busch or Crow-Armstrong, in addition to the defensive stability he offers in right field. But the idea that the Cubs are determined to move one of these two contracts sits as absurd to me. 

I’ve accepted the fact that for the Cubs to make the additions their roster requires—whether in the lineup or on the bump—they’re going to have to move a little bit of money around. It’s incomprehensible that this team in this market needs to do so, but that’s just the reality of how ownership and the front office operate. So, moving a little bit of money is a necessity given the… context. 

The concept of choosing between Cody Bellinger & Seiya Suzuki to generate more payroll flexibility is almost stranger, though. Unless the team legitimately wants to clear themselves of the idea of a singular DH and maintain roster versatility in totality, there doesn’t appear to be an argument here. While not nonexistent, Bellinger’s impact pales compared to what Suzuki’s bat offers. Given that the Cubs need that skill set in their lineup specifically, the merits of exploring a trade for either one of them simply do not exist. It’s Bellinger and not Suzuki.

 

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Hasn’t this suggestion already been refuted? It is just bad reporting that suggested this, is the way I understand it. No one other than Sherman has brought up Suzuki’s name. He isn’t going to be traded. First, because he is very good. But I also feel it would hurt the Cubs Japanese relationship. This is not the time to do that. 

[Old Time Cub Fan]

I've been saying when discussing Cubs off season with friends that they cannot trade Suzuki. Hoyer has put himself in a real bind to try and improve this team with the unreasonable adherence to the cap. Destroying the goodwill they have build up with Japanese players would be the worst mistake Hoyer has made in what I hope is his last season. If Rickets has any sense of the future for this team he will tell Hoyer not to trade Suzuki.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Old Time Cub Fan said:

I've been saying when discussing Cubs off season with friends that they cannot trade Suzuki. Hoyer has put himself in a real bind to try and improve this team with the unreasonable adherence to the cap. Destroying the goodwill they have build up with Japanese players would be the worst mistake Hoyer has made in what I hope is his last season. If Rickets has any sense of the future for this team he will tell Hoyer not to trade Suzuki.

Not top mention, Suzuki is their best hitter. 

[jersey cubs fan]

I’ve yet to read a real reason why it doesn’t make sense to trade a non-special DH. He’s not a great hitter. He sucks in the field and is getting older. The team doesn’t want to spend past the tax limits, so it will have to look to cut costs when possible. 
 

At least one of those good but not great players who make money is going to be gone. It should be one who will get you something of value in return. There is not a single black/white hitter in this organization where it makes no sense to trade them. 
 

i don’t have a specific preference. id rather move off a guy whose value comes from glove than bat, because gloves don’t last and I believe a lot of that defensive value is a mirage. Bats are real. But I wouldn’t weep for any of these guys if/when they are dealt. 

[Rob]

26 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

I’ve yet to read a real reason why it doesn’t make sense to trade a non-special DH. He’s not a great hitter. He sucks in the field and is getting older. The team doesn’t want to spend past the tax limits, so it will have to look to cut costs when possible. 
 

At least one of those good but not great players who make money is going to be gone. It should be one who will get you something of value in return. There is not a single black/white hitter in this organization where it makes no sense to trade them. 
 

i don’t have a specific preference. id rather move off a guy whose value comes from glove than bat, because gloves don’t last and I believe a lot of that defensive value is a mirage. Bats are real. But I wouldn’t weep for any of these guys if/when they are dealt. 

I think the problem with that assessment is that Seiya is a special DH. Among all qualified position players, he was 16th in the league last year in wRC+. He was just a tiny bit behind Mookie Betts and a little bit ahead of Freddie Freeman and Kyle Schwarber. Dude can hit. And he's been getting better.

Seiya's problem has been health. He's missed significant time every year, and usually has a rough stretch that can be at least partially attributed to his injuries.

But that's why it's easy to dream on him in a DH role staying healthy and taking the full measure of his PAs next season.

Between him and Bellinger, I would vastly prefer to keep Suzuki.

[Rcal10]

4 hours ago, Rob said:

I think the problem with that assessment is that Seiya is a special DH. Among all qualified position players, he was 16th in the league last year in wRC+. He was just a tiny bit behind Mookie Betts and a little bit ahead of Freddie Freeman and Kyle Schwarber. Dude can hit. And he's been getting better.

Seiya's problem has been health. He's missed significant time every year, and usually has a rough stretch that can be at least partially attributed to his injuries.

But that's why it's easy to dream on him in a DH role staying healthy and taking the full measure of his PAs next season.

Between him and Bellinger, I would vastly prefer to keep Suzuki.

Suzuki was 16th in all of baseball offensively last year. I would call that pretty damn good. Why would a team looking for offense trade their best hitter. His defense is also overblown a bit. He is not a terrible right fielder. He actually rates just a little under average. So solid to star bat and close to league average glove is not someone they should trade. Not on a team that needs offense.