The Pitching Market is Moving. Will It Compel the Cubs to Move, Too?

[Matthew Trueblood]

We know the Cubs are in the market for a starting pitcher, to upgrade a rotation of uncertain quality and depth. After a monster deal Tuesday night, the Dodgers have swept one top target off the market, narrowing Chicago's options.

Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

It's not quite December, when the hot stove tends to get up to full flame. Already, though, two top starting pitchers have found new homes. Neither is with the Cubs, though, and as some doors close, it becomes more urgent that Jed Hoyer and company position themselves for one of the viable remaining options. According to sources within the organization, the Cubs intend to slightly reduce payroll, which will constrain their pursuits of any high-end free agents or expensive trade targets—unless they can create new flexibility by trading away a player like Cody Bellinger, Nico Hoerner, or Jameson Taillon. 

Those pursuits don't seem to be optional, though. While Hoyer's public remarks have focused on improving at the margins, the message has been clear since late in the frustrating 2024 season: this team needs to get better to compete seriously in the National League, and they know it. Thus, if the team is going to pare its expenditures down from $225 million (or right around $240 million competitive-balance tax payroll) to the $215 million range (and about $230 million for CBT purposes), they will need to make a move that offloads Bellinger, Hoerner, or Taillon, thereby facilitating the major addition they envision.

Blake Snell signed a five-year deal with the Dodgers late Tuesday night, at an annual average value of $36.4 million. That was right in line with the deal Tyler Glasnow starts in 2025, after Los Angeles traded for him last winter and signed him to an extension. It's akin to the rate Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, and Zack Wheeler are all paid, too. That came just one day after Yusei Kikuchi got $63 million on a three-year contract with the Angels. It sure looks like the going rate for Corbin Burnes will be at that $36 million level or above, so count the Cubs out, no matter what.

Snell was the next-best starter on the free-agent market, and a more attractive one for the Cubs, because (unlike Burnes) he would not have cost them a draft pick. If Burnes is to be crossed off, and Snell is taken, and Kikuchi, Nick Martinez, and Michael Wacha (the latter two of whom reupped with their previous teams already this month) are also off the board, is the path to a major pitching addition getting perilous?

To be sure, Max Fried is the best individual target for the Cubs, anyway. They love the pitch mix he brings, and his track record is perfect for them. Other teams might lightly discount his success based on his lack of an elite strikeout rate, but the Cubs won't. Fried is just one option, though, and good fallback plans for him are already coming off the board. Jack Flaherty would be a strong and interesting fit with the team, but he'd also be a clearly lesser move than Fried—more like a Kikuchi than a Snell.

This is shaping up to be a team-friendly market, but a faster-moving one than last year's. The Cubs might need to make a move sooner than they typically would. Trading Bellinger within the next week would allow them to head into December with more options available to them, and ensure that they aren't left out as the good targets come off the board. They might have to wait to move him until Juan Soto signs, though, because he could be a strong alternative for a team who falls short in that sweepstakes. Trading Hoerner could happen sooner, but because Bellinger is the higher-salary player with the trickier fit into the team's position-player mix, it makes sense to wait another few days. Soto's market seems to be moving relatively quickly. If he signs early next week, trading Bellinger could be checked off the team's to-do list by the start of the Winter Meetings.

One way or another, though, the team has to be proactive. It will only make their job harder if they let more strong free agents sign elsewhere before getting serious about making their own moves. While the Ricketts family's refusal to spend the $50 million more per season that they should be spending to keep up with the Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, and Mets will force Hoyer to make difficult decisions, it's time to start making them. 

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[harmony]

Does Blake Snell's reported contract increase the trade value of Seattle right-hander Luis Castillo?

Castillo, who has a no-trade clause, has three years and $74.5 million remaining on his contract with a vesting option for a fourth year.

Snell and Castillo, who were born eight days apart, have each made 211 starts in their MLB careers.

Snell has posted 24.5 fWAR and 23.4 bWAR over 1,096.2 innings while Castillo has posted 23.9 fWAR and 24.0 bWAR over 1,230 innings. Over the past four seasons Snell has made 103 starts while Castillo has made 121 starts.

Snell may well have the higher ceiling but Castillo has been more durable and reliable. Each quality provides value.

Edited November 27, 2024 by harmony

[Bertz]

I think our assumption should be that the SP market, at least in FA, will be pretty picked over by the end of the winter meetings.

Boras isn't dragging his feet like last year, as both Snell and Kikuchi are Boras guys.  Burnes and Manaea are both Boras guys, but I believe everyone else of note is with CAA or smaller agencies.  There's not going to be the artificial delay we saw last year, at least not on the pitching side of things.

So Jed's got to either move in the next ~2 weeks, or be comfortable boxing himself into a corner where he has to make a trade.  I would think the play, even if you're wanting to deal Bellinger still, would be to get your big SP in house and let a Bellinger trade hold up/dictate your subsequent moves.  You can always trade for relief and bench help in the event you get left holding the bag, but there's only so much SP inventory every winter.

[LBiittner]

Would signing a manaea cost the Cubs a 2nd round pick as well as a 5th plus lower draft $ and lower IFA $ ?

[Bertz]

11 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Would signing a manaea cost the Cubs a 2nd round pick as well as a 5th plus lower draft $ and lower IFA $ ?

Yes.  Manaea, Severino, and Pivetta are three guys in the "upper middle class" Jed is reportedly eying who have a qualifying offer attached.

[LBiittner]

22 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Yes.  Manaea, Severino, and Pivetta are three guys in the "upper middle class" Jed is reportedly eying who have a qualifying offer attached.

Thanks, I wasn't sure penalty included a 2nd rounder? Was the 2nd rounder because jed just wormed over the first tax threshold?  If so, his accountant messed up just a skootch

[Transmogrified Tiger]

6 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Thanks, I wasn't sure penalty included a 2nd rounder? Was the 2nd rounder because jed just wormed over the first tax threshold?  If so, his accountant messed up just a skootch

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer

The Cubs will always lose their 2nd highest pick and 500k of international money for signing a QO FA.  By going over the tax threshold, they also give up their 5th highest pick if they do so.

[LBiittner]

47 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer

The Cubs will always lose their 2nd highest pick and 500k of international money for signing a QO FA.  By going over the tax threshold, they also give up their 5th highest pick if they do so.

Thank you

[LBiittner]

10 hours ago, harmony said:

Does Blake Snell's reported contract increase the trade value of Seattle right-hander Luis Castillo?

Castillo, who has a no-trade clause, has three years and $74.5 million remaining on his contract with a vesting option for a fourth year.

Snell and Castillo, who were born eight days apart, have each made 211 starts in their MLB careers.

Snell has posted 24.5 fWAR and 23.4 bWAR over 1,096.2 innings while Castillo has posted 23.9 fWAR and 24.0 bWAR over 1,230 innings. Over the past four seasons Snell has made 103 starts while Castillo has made 121 starts.

Snell may well have the higher ceiling but Castillo has been more durable and reliable. Each quality provides value.

Thanks for the research you provided. Didn't realize he had NTC. Any buyer will have to pay for him to waive. 

[Development DL]

Lots of creative options available .  You make a solid argument for moving with pace . Value plays can be found as the market plays out , but threading the needle is tricky . Perceived certainty can indeed necessitate a quicker move .  
There is a 1 to 1 ratio between your work and my enjoyment of the off season .   Kudos