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It's not quite December, when the hot stove tends to get up to full flame. Already, though, two top starting pitchers have found new homes. Neither is with the Cubs, though, and as some doors close, it becomes more urgent that Jed Hoyer and company position themselves for one of the viable remaining options. According to sources within the organization, the Cubs intend to slightly reduce payroll, which will constrain their pursuits of any high-end free agents or expensive trade targets—unless they can create new flexibility by trading away a player like Cody Bellinger, Nico Hoerner, or Jameson Taillon.
Those pursuits don't seem to be optional, though. While Hoyer's public remarks have focused on improving at the margins, the message has been clear since late in the frustrating 2024 season: this team needs to get better to compete seriously in the National League, and they know it. Thus, if the team is going to pare its expenditures down from $225 million (or right around $240 million competitive-balance tax payroll) to the $215 million range (and about $230 million for CBT purposes), they will need to make a move that offloads Bellinger, Hoerner, or Taillon, thereby facilitating the major addition they envision.
Blake Snell signed a five-year deal with the Dodgers late Tuesday night, at an annual average value of $36.4 million. That was right in line with the deal Tyler Glasnow starts in 2025, after Los Angeles traded for him last winter and signed him to an extension. It's akin to the rate Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, and Zack Wheeler are all paid, too. That came just one day after Yusei Kikuchi got $63 million on a three-year contract with the Angels. It sure looks like the going rate for Corbin Burnes will be at that $36 million level or above, so count the Cubs out, no matter what.
Snell was the next-best starter on the free-agent market, and a more attractive one for the Cubs, because (unlike Burnes) he would not have cost them a draft pick. If Burnes is to be crossed off, and Snell is taken, and Kikuchi, Nick Martinez, and Michael Wacha (the latter two of whom reupped with their previous teams already this month) are also off the board, is the path to a major pitching addition getting perilous?
To be sure, Max Fried is the best individual target for the Cubs, anyway. They love the pitch mix he brings, and his track record is perfect for them. Other teams might lightly discount his success based on his lack of an elite strikeout rate, but the Cubs won't. Fried is just one option, though, and good fallback plans for him are already coming off the board. Jack Flaherty would be a strong and interesting fit with the team, but he'd also be a clearly lesser move than Fried—more like a Kikuchi than a Snell.
This is shaping up to be a team-friendly market, but a faster-moving one than last year's. The Cubs might need to make a move sooner than they typically would. Trading Bellinger within the next week would allow them to head into December with more options available to them, and ensure that they aren't left out as the good targets come off the board. They might have to wait to move him until Juan Soto signs, though, because he could be a strong alternative for a team who falls short in that sweepstakes. Trading Hoerner could happen sooner, but because Bellinger is the higher-salary player with the trickier fit into the team's position-player mix, it makes sense to wait another few days. Soto's market seems to be moving relatively quickly. If he signs early next week, trading Bellinger could be checked off the team's to-do list by the start of the Winter Meetings.
One way or another, though, the team has to be proactive. It will only make their job harder if they let more strong free agents sign elsewhere before getting serious about making their own moves. While the Ricketts family's refusal to spend the $50 million more per season that they should be spending to keep up with the Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, and Mets will force Hoyer to make difficult decisions, it's time to start making them.
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