Ranking Cubs Non-Tender Candidates, from Most to Least Likely

[Matthew Trueblood]

This week, the Cubs have to add at least one prospect to their 40-man roster. That roster is already full, though, and the team has to make some external additions this winter, too. The team needs to create some space. Who ought to go?

Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

How overstuffed are the Cubs with fringy big-leaguers? So much so that, by my rough and very unofficial count, they have a whopping 17 candidates for non-tender at the end of this week. That's especially crazy, given that they only have a dozen arbitration-eligible players, and the principal reason why teams cut players at the non-tender deadline is generally to save money on players eligible for arbitration but no longer producing at a rate commensurate with their expected pay.

Because the Cubs badly need to upgrade at the top of their roster (1-2 spots), the bottom of it (2-3 spots), and the apron just beyond the edge of the 26-man roster, where players still on the 40-man work in the minors or sit on the injured list (3-4 spots), however, the team has much more of a roster crunch than they do a money crunch. Account for the need to add Owen Caissie and (in all likelihood) one other from a group of fringe prospects to the 40-man by Tuesday evening to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft next month, and the team needs to create about eight new openings to fill with better players going into 2025. That doesn't all have to happen at once, this week. It can be done via trades later in the winter, in some measure. However, because of this pressure, the team really should prepare to cut anywhere from five to 10 players this week.

Obviously, not everyone is a candidate to be cut, even among the guys who don't have guaranteed contracts. There's no chance the Cubs non-tender Miguel Amaya, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Ben Brown, or Kevin Alcántara. Nor, in my opinion, should they even consider cutting ties with any of the following: Hayden Wesneski, Jack Neely, Daniel Palencia, Luke Little, Tyson Miller, or Nate Pearson. Even after taking those names off the board, though, the list of players who do make sense to remove—because of their expected salaries, the lack of minor-league options, or a sheer dearth of upside and trade value—is very long. Here it is, ranked from the players who most need to go to those who make at least a modicum of sense to keep.

1. Adbert Alzolay, RHP
This one sucks, but should also be the easiest call in the bunch. The Cubs are in no position to sit around for a year with Alzolay taking up a roster spot (until he can be placed on the 60-day injured list in the spring) and earning over $2 million. Maybe the two sides would be interested in a reunion, after a non-tender, with Alzolay getting a two-year minor-league deal but a solid payday if and when he can reclaim a roster spot after Tommy John surgery. Short of that, though, it's time to say goodbye to the profoundly lovable but unreliable righty.

2. Nick Madrigal, 2B/3B
Let us not forget: for a moment there, Madrigal made himself a plus defensive third baseman in 2023. That was impressive; I don't doubt his makeup. He also has one great skill, in the ability to put the ball in play relentlessly. Alas, he's proved conclusively that he can't make contact of sufficient quality to make that skill matter, especially because he also can't stay on the field. It would be malpractice to keep him around at a seven-figure salary for another low-ceiling season.

3. Keegan Thompson, RHP
Though beloved for some occasionally glimpsable upside in certain corners, Thompson has been consistently inconsistent for years. He walks too many and strikes out too few, and the pitch mix is aggressively generic. He's also out of minor-league options, so he can no longer be the up-and-down last arm in the pen.

4. Caleb Kilian, RHP
If success is waiting for this guy somewhere, it's time to let him seek it. That success will not come in Chicago. They've tried a lot of things, and so has he, and none of it has really worked. He, too, is out of options. If it weren't for a tiny wisp of a hope that he holds some trade value for a team who loves a certain kind of reclamation project, he'd be higher on this list.

5. Brennen Davis, OF
Like most of the players above, Davis has shown great makeup and endeared himself to many Cubs fans over the last handful of years, despite a failure to produce anything on the field. The time for holding onto players who fall into that category is over. Davis is a tragic story, an obviously talented player repeatedly foiled by major injury issues. Maybe 2025 will be the year he stays healthy, but the Cubs should clear the roster spot, bet on upside somewhere else, and let Davis take his chances in some new scenery.

6. Patrick Wisdom, 3B/1B/DH
As I wrote earlier this fall, Wisdom will be a slightly sad departure, because he's a beloved clubhouse presence and there was good reason to hope he would thrive in the role they carved out for him this past season. Alas, he turns out to be the kind of high-strikeout slugger who needs regular reps to find his rhythm and play to his potential, and he's neither a sufficiently high-ceiling bat nor an adequate defensive third baseman to merit regular playing time for the playoff-hopeful 2025 Cubs. Cutting ties with him will save the team just over $2 million to reallocate elsewhere, too.

7. Rob Zastryzny, LHP
Just claimed two weeks ago from Milwaukee, Zastryzny is exactly the kind of lefty reliever you scoop up just to see what happens. If nothing does, a fortnight later, you waive them again and see whether they get claimed. Zastryzny could elect free agency even if he clears, though, so waiving him and non-tendering him come to the same thing.

8. Ethan Roberts, RHP
Briefly a great story at the start of 2022, Roberts quickly became a sad story about how not everyone comes back from Tommy John surgery on time, or at anywhere near full strength. Roberts is diminutive, and when a guy like that comes back from a major injury with diminished velocity, it's not a good idea to bet on it coming back. His sweeper is impressive and fun, but it doesn't make him an actually helpful pitcher.

9. Trey Wingenter, RHP
He throws very hard, and the overall stuff profile can be nasty. He's got the body type and the delivery rudiments to become one of the Cubs' beloved weird arm angle guys. There's some reason to hold out hope for him, but injuries have derailed his initial career trajectory, and he's out of options, so holding onto him might end up meaning cutting ties six weeks into the season, anyway.

10. Julian Merryweather, RHP
The two injuries that made Merryweather unimpressive even when he was available in 2024 are a huge red flag, for a player whose career was headed toward injury-related ruin before his sunshine season of 2023. He really lost velocity, relative to the way he overpowered hitters last year. There is, again, plenty to like, and he has great makeup, but he's out of options and he seems to require careful handling to stay healthy and effective. That's a bad combination, especially for a pitcher now experienced enough to make a little bit of real money if they retain him and tender him a contract.

11. Gavin Hollowell, RHP
Boy, does Hollowell offer a lot of funk. He's precisely the kind of dice-roll the Cubs like to take in the bullpen, and he still can be sent to Triple-A Iowa whenever he's not needed. On the other hand, he's very much the kind of pitcher you can readily find on the waiver wire every month or so. You hold onto him while the cost is minimal, but one type of cost that has to be accounted for is the opportunity cost of rostering him instead of seeking out more upside.

12. Mike Tauchman, OF
We know how much Craig Counsell loves Tauchman—so much so that he sat him down and guaranteed him a role on the team at the beginning of spring training. By and large, the aging outfielder rewarded that faith, continuing to get on base and play non-damaging defense. However, his power continues to fade, and looked especially absent after he returned from a groin injury in the summer. He's not able to be optioned to the minors, he doesn't have durability to recommend him, and in his mid-30s, he seems very unlikely to recover lost power or athleticism. That doesn't make him useless, but the team might want to aim higher for what is effectively their 10th regular's spot.

13. Matt Mervis, 1B
With Cody Bellinger back in the fold (along with Michael Busch, and factoring in Caissie as a left-handed corner bat even though he won't be playing first base next year), Mervis has relatively little utility. He's still only due the league-minimum, and then only while in the majors—but it's hard to imagine a good scenario in which he spends any significant time in the majors, so holding onto him would be mostly about inertia. That he can be optioned to Iowa is the best argument for retaining him.

14. Miles Mastrobuoni, UTIL
To have any real value with as little power as Mastrobuoni has, you have to control the strike zone at an elite level, or make exceptional use of your speed, or truly excel at a high-value defensive position. Mastrobuoni just doesn't check any of those boxes. He's not a terrible utility player, but it doesn't make sense to keep him around when you have as many good infield prospects as the Cubs do.

15. Alexander Canario, OF
Because he's shown elite bat speed, Canario probably has too much trade value to cut outright. He's demonstrated contact issues so profound that a future as a big-league regular seems unlikely, but he's not without some athleticism, and that bat speed means hig power on contact. He's out of options, though, and he doesn't profile as a very helpful bench piece right now. The Cubs should be shopping him aggressively, as soon as this week.

16. Michael Arias, RHP
The stuff Arias is capable of really is exciting. He'd be a really good feather to put in the cap of the player-development team, turning a formerly released infielder into a big-league arm. That's the dream. The unexciting, rude awakening is that he walked 48 of the 286 batters he faced last year. If they hold onto him all winter, they're likely to end up waiving him in April and feeling bashful about the wasted time.

17. Luis Vázquez, SS
He's not a much better player than Mastrobuoni, but Vázquez has a better glove at short and one more year of optionability left. He's almost not in the way enough to cut, especially given that the team doesn't have to (and won't) add James Triantos or Matt Shaw to the 40-man this year. Early in the season, he can be the insurance policy kept in Iowa in case of injury, without being a hurdle to any other major moves.

The Cubs have some tough decisions ahead. It's unlikely they'll be as proactive as I believe they should be, but if it were me, eight or more of the names above would be off the roster by Saturday. That way, the team could move forward with the aggressive and creative winter that should be their focus.

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[Bertz]

Keegan Thompson is way too high on this list.  He's as good a bet as any waiver wire guy they can grab.  I don't have supreme confidence in him making it onto the Opening Day roster, but I'd be pretty surprised if he's not given a crack in spring training. 

Canario and Mervis likewise are way too low.  Maybe they've got enough value where there's some semantics in that their exit from the roster comes in the form of some minor "my crap for your trash" type of trade in the next couple days, but they're in essentially the same spot as Kilian (though Mervis does have an option left).

[Matthew Trueblood]

24 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Keegan Thompson is way too high on this list.  He's as good a bet as any waiver wire guy they can grab.  I don't have supreme confidence in him making it onto the Opening Day roster, but I'd be pretty surprised if he's not given a crack in spring training. 

Canario and Mervis likewise are way too low.  Maybe they've got enough value where there's some semantics in that their exit from the roster comes in the form of some minor "my crap for your trash" type of trade in the next couple days, but they're in essentially the same spot as Kilian (though Mervis does have an option left).

That's probably fair. I've been the low man on Thompson for a couple years now. (Though, I would argue, I've also been vindicated about him most of the time.)

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

That's probably fair. I've been the low man on Thompson for a couple years now. (Though, I would argue, I've also been vindicated about him most of the time.)

Don't feel too much on an island: I'd have Thompson pretty high on the non-tender list myself. Feel like as a soon-to-be-30-year old, the Cubs can probably find some other way to use the 40-man, even if it's just to get someone they feel is a shade better than what Thompson offers, or someone they think with some new ideas they can make better than Thompson.

[mul21]

I'd have Thompson and Kilian much lower and Mastro and Canario much higher, but I can totally see how you landed where you did.  

How many cuts do we actually see from this list?

[Bertz]

The other thing on Keegan is he was one of the few guys that Craig was willing to give leverage opportunities to.  His 1.4 average leverage index when entering a game is a fairly standard setup man number.  Now obviously that is due in no small part to guys ahead of him immolating, but I'd be surprised with the inexperience elsewhere in the pen if the team just chucks a guy that they know can enter a tight game and not just immediately piss his pants.

The ship has probably sailed on Keegan being good, but there's value in "not bad."

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'd also argue that Merryweather is way too high.  The roster spot costs 800k, and when he's been healthy the ceiling is well worth the 500k gamble.

[Matthew Trueblood]

15 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I'd also argue that Merryweather is way too high.  The roster spot costs 800k, and when he's been healthy the ceiling is well worth the 500k gamble.

I love healthy Merryweather but from what I've heard the optimism that he'll ever get back the stuff he lost last year is pretty low. Sad, man. I think he's a really thoughtful and dedicated worker, too. If he survives the winter, will be fascinating to see if the lightning is back in his arm come spring. Unfortunately, I wouldn't bet on it.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I love healthy Merryweather but from what I've heard the optimism that he'll ever get back the stuff he lost last year is pretty low. Sad, man. I think he's a really thoughtful and dedicated worker, too. If he survives the winter, will be fascinating to see if the lightning is back in his arm come spring. Unfortunately, I wouldn't bet on it.

That's fair if the belief is that his stuff is really cooked, and non-tendering him isn't the same as him making it to April or August on the roster.  Personally I don't mind betting an offseason 40 man spot and 500k on the chance that it bounces back, but I don't have the inside info to clarify how likely that chance is.

[thawv]

7 hours ago, Bertz said:

Keegan Thompson is way too high on this list.  He's as good a bet as any waiver wire guy they can grab.  I don't have supreme confidence in him making it onto the Opening Day roster, but I'd be pretty surprised if he's not given a crack in spring training. 

Canario and Mervis likewise are way too low.  Maybe they've got enough value where there's some semantics in that their exit from the roster comes in the form of some minor "my crap for your trash" type of trade in the next couple days, but they're in essentially the same spot as Kilian (though Mervis does have an option left).

He's out of options, and I don't see him on the MLB roster.  I have him as a lock to be non tendered.