Two Star Free Agents Are Willing to Play Second Base, and Cubs Should Be First in Line

[Matthew Trueblood]

If the reports about these two sluggers being willing to move off their longstanding infield positions are accurate, it changes the landscape for the Cubs in free agency—and it should change their strategy, too.

Image courtesy of © Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

In separate reports coming from the General Managers Meetings in San Antonio this week, both Willy Adames and Alex Bregman expressed a willingness to move off the positions that have defined their careers to this point. In a piece at The Athletic by Katie Woo and Will Sammon:

Quote

Free agent Willy Adames wants to stay at shortstop but would be willing to play a different position if he gets a strong offer from a team in position to win, league sources said.

And directly from Bregman's agent, Scott Boras, in a piece by USA Today's Bob Nightengale:

Quote

Also that Bregman can play second base, third base, his leadership, it’s a market certainly that the Astros are very aware is very healthy to him.

Obviously, each of these comes with a caveat for the Cubs. In Adames's case, it's that preference to stay at short, and the obvious follow-up questions, given the wording Sammon and Woo chose:

1. What counts as a strong offer?
2. Does Adames consider the Cubs to be in a position to win?

It's hard to imagine that Adames will get anything short of $150 million over six years, and his market could go even higher than Dansby Swanson's, depending on how the winter unfolds. He probably wouldn't relish playing alongside Swanson for both less money per year and fewer years, given his track record, so the Cubs would probably have to either pay him $26 million per season or go to seven years to bring him in as a second baseman. The latter feels a bit too desperate, but giving Adames $160 million over six years isn't unthinkable, by any means. It's pretty much the deal Javier Báez got, and although Adames had a backslide as a defender in 2024 and doesn't profile at short for long the way Báez did, he's a much more well-rounded hitter, likely to age considerably better.

As to the second question, I don't think the Cubs would have an especially tough sell job. Drop Adames's 25-homer power into the heart of their lineup, probably batting between Cody Bellinger and Michael Busch, and the team would be pretty potent. Adames would also be a superb defender at the keystone, maintaining the team's stout infield phalanx. Crucially, too, he loved Craig Counsell during their time together in Milwaukee, and Counsell knows the value Adames would bring as a leader with the perfect mix of a fierce desire to win and a friendly, consistent disposition. Swanson gets a lot of plaudits for his off-field value, and perhaps they're deserved. One thing is for sure: Adames blows even Swanson out of the water when it comes to uplifting teammates and engaging in the day-to-day work of winning.

For Bregman, the caveat is that all the talk around him seems to lead back to the Astros. As I wrote earlier this week, the Astros face a slight crunch, and their GM is on the record saying they "might need to get creative" with payroll; that doesn't sound like a man ready to drop $130 million into the lap of a 31-year-old. Maybe Dana Brown meant only that he's so focused on bringing back Bregman that he knows he'll have to make creative, even painful cuts elsewhere. At any rate, though, Bregman and the Astros continue to consider a reunion.

If one doesn't happen, though, Bregman should be a Cub. He finished sixth in voting for the distinguished Fielding Bible Award at third base this year, and continues to get better at defending the line there. In profile and person, though, he's not really built for the position. His arm strength is far below average for the hot corner, though it would be more than adequate at second.

The reason he can't throw as hard as many other third basemen is pretty simple: he's smaller than they are. His strongest throws on record nearly all involve a sharply hit ball and a careful buildup of momentum into a full-body throw across the diamond, too. He would benefit hugely from getting to use his feet and his quick hands a bit more and his raw arm strength a bit less. Were it not for José Altuve, he almost certainly would have stayed at second when he came up to the majors. If he's no longer teammates with a Hall of Famer at that spot, he should claim it.

In that piece from early this week, I proposed trading Isaac Paredes to Houston to make way for Bregman. If that's not even necessary, though, bringing in the All-Star makes even more sense. Nor is it obviously necessary that the team trade Nico Hoerner to facilitate bringing in either Bregman or Adames. Having Hoerner as a backup and rotational piece in support of all three of Paredes, Swanson and the newcomer could be especially valuable. It would be a better way to utilize his too-light bat, his speed, and his glove than playing him every day at second base and batting him high in the order, as the team has so often done over the last few seasons. Hoerner might balk at that, of course, and if he did, the team could simply trade him, but Bregman and Adames are each so much better—as players, in a vacuum, but especially as fits for the Cubs' needs—that if either is open to playing second base for Chicago, they need to be willing to deprioritize Hoerner to make it happen, even at substantial financial cost.

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[Bertz]

This feels like a lot of money to barely, if at all, upgrade the team?

[Rex Buckingham]

I feel like Bregman for sure, and probably Adames, would be a significant upgrade over Hoerner. Both of them offer a lot more with the bat (Adames a career 109 ops+ with 25-30 HR power, Bregman a 132 career ops+ with similar power, and Hoerner a career 100 ops+ and barely more career HRs than those 2 average), and would likely be good if not great at 2B on defense

[LBiittner]

Difficult to believe jed would outbid the competition for these 2. 

[squally1313]

[CubinNY]

8 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

WAR is meaningless when his OPS+ is 100. The Cubs need run producers. 

[Bertz]

11 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

I feel like Bregman for sure, and probably Adames, would be a significant upgrade over Hoerner. Both of them offer a lot more with the bat (Adames a career 109 ops+ with 25-30 HR power, Bregman a 132 career ops+ with similar power, and Hoerner a career 100 ops+ and barely more career HRs than those 2 average), and would likely be good if not great at 2B on defense

Bregman is a good hitter, but if you look at what he's done post juiced ball he's more Ian Happ than star.  And Ian Happ at 2B would be great, but Bregman will probably be a below average at 2B (in addition to the lack of experience he's slowed down A LOT).  You probably get similar net production to Hoerner, but trade 15 runs of defense for 15 runs of offense.  Worth considering in a vacuum, but worth getting older and substantially more expensive?

Adames feels even more silly.  He has a 108 wRC+ the last three years, Hoerner is at 105.  You are getting A LOT more homeruns, but you're barely getting better overall.  

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

WAR is meaningless when his OPS+ is 100. The Cubs need run producers. 

ok sounds good, just sign Pete Alonso and put him at second then

[CubinNY]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

ok sounds good, just sign Pete Alonso and put him at second then

Can I interest you in Willy Adames? 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

26 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Men will literally obsess over trading our all star 2B on a team-friendly deal rather than go to therapy recognize Wrigley was weird last year

[squally1313]

25 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Can I interest you in Willy Adames? 

At $25m-$30m a year to get 2 years older and 0.9 fWAR better (based solely on 2024, he was a worse hitter and overall player by a lot in 2023)? No thanks!

[squally1313]

Dansby Swanson put up a .277/.329/.447, 6.6 fWAR line in his age 27 season, we signed him to a $25m/year deal, he's continued to be a very good player and gets endlessly horsefeathers on by 90% of this board.

Willy Adams put up a .251/.331/..462, 4.8 fWAR line in his age 28 season and suddenly we want him to pay him $25m/year or more to replace the very good second baseman we already have. 

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

Dansby Swanson put up a .277/.329/.447, 6.6 fWAR line in his age 27 season, we signed him to a $25m/year deal, he's continued to be a very good player and gets endlessly horsefeathers on by 90% of this board.

Willy Adams put up a .251/.331/..462, 4.8 fWAR line in his age 28 season and suddenly we want him to pay him $25m/year or more to replace the very good second baseman we already have. 

It's two things, neither of which make it any less silly:

- Adames is unequivocally the best players at his position in his free agent class

- Adames is a 30 homer guy rather than a 25 homer guy.  Nevermind that he's worse overall

[squally1313]

28 minutes ago, Bertz said:

It's two things, neither of which make it any less silly:

- Adames is unequivocally the best players at his position in his free agent class

- Adames is a 30 homer guy rather than a 25 homer guy.  Nevermind that he's worse overall

If you'll allow me to ignore trend lines (and besides, all trend lines in this area trend down eventually), Dansby had 52 home runs in the two years before signing with the Cubs, Adames has 56 the last two years. 

But anyways this isn't about Dansby, it's about Adames, Hoerner, and all the significantly more efficient ways we can spend $25m-$30m/year. Should we upgrade from a 4 WAR second baseman to a 5 WAR (generous!) second baseman or should we replace Kyle Hendricks with Corbin Burnes, decisions decisions