Non-Soto FA thread

[thawv]

32 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I think the overly summarized version of where I'm at right now, in a non-Soto world, is sign Flaherty, trade prospects for a somewhat controlled starting pitcher (Seattle, Miami, etc), sign a catcher, Jenson, Kelly, whatever, and then get a somewhat cheap RH bat that hits lefties. Your bullpen upgrades become Assad, Brown, and Horton and the increased likelihood that the rotation won't crap out and lead to the bullpen being overworked by May. If Bellinger opts in, that's about your $50m ($20m for Flaherty, $10m for a catcher, $5m for a bench bat, I guess go get another bullpen arm?). If he opts out, go get Teoscar or Santander at some 4/100 type deal. 

In short, I'd be shocked if they don't sign Flaherty.  In my little mind, I feel like it's a forgone conclusion.  

[squally1313]

7 minutes ago, thawv said:

Did they not get Stl pick for Willy that season?  I could be wrong, but I thought they didn't lose a pick that season. 

I may be getting some of the nuances wrong, but I don't put a lot of weight in 'well they got one back, so it's fine'. Contreras signs with StL and they suddenly have two second round picks, no? You're still losing a draft pick even if you picked one up separately. If you put some weight/value to a player selected in the second round, you'd put similar weight/value on a second player selected in the second round. 

[thawv]

Just now, squally1313 said:

I may be getting some of the nuances wrong, but I don't put a lot of weight in 'well they got one back, so it's fine'. Contreras signs with StL and they suddenly have two second round picks, no? You're still losing a draft pick even if you picked one up separately. If you put some weight/value to a player selected in the second round, you'd put similar weight/value on a second player selected in the second round. 

I get it.  I'm just one that has little faith in Jed doing something aggressive to make us a WS contender. 

[CubinNY]

14 minutes ago, thawv said:

I get it.  I'm just one that has little faith in Jed doing something aggressive to make us a WS contender. 

It all depends on one's definition of aggressive. If he can find the right deal, I think he'll trade some high-end minor leaguers. He's probably going to sign a nine-figure pitcher. Will the players they get be at the top of the market? Doubtful. 

[squally1313]

8 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

It all depends on one's definition of aggressive. If he can find the right deal, I think he'll trade some high-end minor leaguers. He's probably going to sign a nine-figure pitcher. Will the players they get be at the top of the market? Doubtful. 

Would the nine figure pitcher not be at the top of the market? Not trying to be pedantic, but think it's mildly unfair if the board collectively decides that 'top of the market' is just Soto (and therefore 29 teams would not be operating at the top of the market).

[CubinNY]

9 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Would the nine figure pitcher not be at the top of the market? Not trying to be pedantic, but think it's mildly unfair if the board collectively decides that 'top of the market' is just Soto (and therefore 29 teams would not be operating at the top of the market).

It depends on the definition. I suppose there can be more than one guy at the top of the market. But take the last offseason- although I love Shota, he was well down the list. It'd be nice if 1) he can repeat this coming year and 2) the Cubs do something like that again. I like Freid the most. That would probably qualify as top of the market. 

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

It depends on the definition. I suppose there can be more than one guy at the top of the market. But take the last offseason- although I love Shota, he was well down the list. It'd be nice if 1) he can repeat this coming year and 2) the Cubs do something like that again. I like Freid the most. That would probably qualify as top of the market. 

Yeah that's all fair. We're in a second straight offseason of there being one free agent head and shoulders above everyone else, and it's looking very likely that they're going to end up on one of two teams that are all the following: bigger markets, historically willing to spend more than us, and a better set up for success. It's one thing to lose like, Harper to Philly or hypothetically Seager/Semien to Texas. But the Yankees and Dodgers setting new overall contract/AAV records isn't going to make me think too much less of Hoyer.

Like, Bellinger got the 4th highest total salary and 3rd highest AAV last year. I'm certainly not going to call it an elite signing, given that he's not an elite player and that Boras played it out the way that he did where everyone just got exhausted of the whole process. But people saying 'Hoyer never plays at the top of the market' really just means, in last offseasons terms, he didn't get Ohtani. 

[thawv]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

It all depends on one's definition of aggressive. If he can find the right deal, I think he'll trade some high-end minor leaguers. He's probably going to sign a nine-figure pitcher. Will the players they get be at the top of the market? Doubtful. 

Aggressive is subjective.  His aggressive may be passive to another team president. 
 

This is crazy, but aggressive is signing, Soto, Burnes, Flaherty, and Scott.  You asked!!!  Hahaha... 

[Stratos]

12 hours ago, Cuzi said:

There's also a handful of SP in this FA that was in the same tier of pitcher that Max Fried is and won't be offered a QO for varying reasons like Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi, and Jack Flaherty. Then you have guys that are better coming off TJS like Shane Bieber who happened to pitch for our lovely small market GMs team.

Dansby Swanson was one of the best SS's in baseball. The Cubs already have 2 Max Fried's.

There's some other good SP available.  But Kikuchi will be 34 next year and Eovaldi with be 35, so there's significant risk they become late career Jon Lester or Kyle Hendricks at any moment in any deal, so i'd avoid them.  Hoyer has never given a multiyear deal to an older SP like them.  Flaherty is another option.

The Cubs are very likely going to acquire another SP, the tier of SP they go after is unknown.  The Cubs have around 45 million under the tax line to spend after arbitration/raises even if Belli doesn't opt out.  Few FA position players available to fit with our needs unless Belli opts-out.

If we have 2 Max Fried's already it doesn't matter since we have 3 other SP slots to fill.  Another quality SP can also push someone like Ben Brown or Assad to the pen while providing SP depth for inevitable injuries.  Teams can't get by on just 5 or even 6 SP these days.

 

[Stratos]

12 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

As for the FA I want, I'm most interested in Clay Holmes and Danny Jansen.  I'm not enamored with the options for the 2 main additions(bat and SP), so I'd like one of those to come via trade(both would be great but probably unrealistic). What that trade is informs what the other FA target would be, for example trading for Brent Rooker means different things for the resources to use on a SP than Josh Naylor.

Clay Holmes would be fantastic, i'm sure he gets paid well though.  I like Jansen too, he's probably worth at least 1 win more over Bethancourt.  Wouldn't mind signing Jansen and possibly keeping Bethancourt too.

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, thawv said:

Aggressive is subjective.  His aggressive may be passive to another team president.

This is crazy, but aggressive is signing, Soto, Burnes, Flaherty, and Scott.  You asked!!!  Hahaha... 

If Belli opt out they have around 70m to spend after arb etc.  They can't sign all those guys without trades or going over the tax line.

[Cuzi]

21 minutes ago, Stratos said:

There's some other good SP available.  But Kikuchi will be 34 next year and Eovaldi with be 35, so there's significant risk they become late career Jon Lester or Kyle Hendricks at any moment in any deal, so i'd avoid them.  Hoyer has never given a multiyear deal to an older SP like them.

Uhhh... Drew Smyly?

[Stratos]

2 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Uhhh... Drew Smyly?

True forgot about that one.  Went poorly.

[Cuzi]

Just now, Stratos said:

True forgot about that one.  Went poorly.

He was also never as good as the other pitchers.

[Stratos]

14 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

He was also never as good as the other pitchers.

Do you think we should be signing 34-35 year old SP to not-insignificant deals?  I'm generally against it unless the age risk is baked or its some HOF-type stud.

[squally1313]

34 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Hoyer has never given a multiyear deal to an older SP like them. 

This is more calling out a larger point, but Hoyer has basically had 3 real off seasons in charge and at least one of them was not in 'playoff push' mode. I don't think you can make any real inferences from 'Jed has never made a move like X' because there's just not enough sample size out there. This isn't like Theo where you could look to what he did with Boston. I'm not saying you can't narrow down general philosophies, but ruling out whole classes of players because he hasn't signed one them in the last two years seems like a stretch. 

[Cuzi]

7 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Do you think we should be signing 34-35 year old SP to not-insignificant deals?  I'm generally against it unless the age risk is baked or its some HOF-type stud.

Would you go back in time and sign Chris Sale? Seth Lugo? Sonny Gray?

These are the types of deals we are talking about with Yusei Kikuchi and Nathan Eovaldi. Are they insignificant? No. But they also aren't significant to the Cubs.

Edited October 23, 2024 by Cuzi

[Stratos]

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

This is more calling out a larger point, but Hoyer has basically had 3 real off seasons in charge and at least one of them was not in 'playoff push' mode. I don't think you can make any real inferences from 'Jed has never made a move like X' because there's just not enough sample size out there. This isn't like Theo where you could look to what he did with Boston. I'm not saying you can't narrow down general philosophies, but ruling out whole classes of players because he hasn't signed one them in the last two years seems like a stretch. 

He signed Stroman in the 2021-22 offseason.  He's only 33 and his velo and K/9 is already dropping off significantly.  I think the data would support preferring signing a 30 or 31 y/o SP over a 34-35 y/o SP, not much different than a position player.

[Stratos]

6 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Would you go back in time and sign Chris Sale? Seth Lugo? Sonny Gray?

These are the types of deals we are talking about with Yusei Kikuchi and Nathan Eovaldi. Are they insignificant? No. But they also aren't significant to the Cubs.

I generally wouldn't sign a 34-35 y/o pitcher to a FA market value deal if there were similar options for guys several years younger.  The odds they will suddenly regress is higher so I don't see the benefit of playing Russian roulette. 

Jed was willing to give Stroman a higher AAV with opt-outs over a longer deal based on this fact and it was the right decision, especially given how Stroman fell off this year.  The age regression curve isn't much different if at all for pitchers vs hitters.

[Cuzi]

A relative bum like Charlie Morton goes to Houston at age 33 and turns into a guy that puts up 3.2 fWAR per 180 innings through age 40.

[Cuzi]

8 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I generally wouldn't sign a 34-35 y/o pitcher to a FA market value deal if there were similar options for guys several years younger.  The odds they will suddenly regress is higher so I don't see the benefit of playing Russian roulette.

All pitching is Russian roulette. You can sign a guy like Stephen Strasburg to the biggest deal in history for a pitcher and he immediately goes out and blows out his arm.

Patrick Corbin. Jose Berrios. Joe Musgrove. Robbie Ray.

All signed at "better" ages to longer deals.

Edited October 23, 2024 by Cuzi

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Cuzi said:

All pitching is Russian roulette. You can sign a guy like Stephen Strasburg to the biggest deal in history for a pitcher and he immediately goes out and blows out his arm.

Patrick Corbin. Jose Berrios. Joe Musgrove. Robbie Ray.

All signed at "better" ages to longer deals.

This is anecdotal evidence.  You can find exceptions to anything.  A bunch of people smoke a pack a day and live until they're 100 isn't proof that smoking isn't harmful to health.  Guys like Charlie Morton are an extreme case.

Pitching injuries are far less predictable than age regression.  How many SP in the top 40 of fWAR last year were over age 34?   A quick glance I found a few 35 years old and none over 35.  You can do the same for top 40 position players.

If pitching injuring are common and not very predictable then why give a guy tens of millions and then up the risk factor significantly by signing an old one too?  They should stay as young as they reasonably can in the FA market.

Edited October 23, 2024 by Stratos

[Cuzi]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

Pitching injuries are far less predictable than age regression.  How many SP in the top 40 of fWAR last year were over age 34?   A quick glance I found a few 35 years old and none over 35.  You can do the same for top 40 position players.

Pitching - 3. Justin Verlander, Charlie Morton, Kyle Gibson.

Hitting - 0.

Now, how many SP were in the top 40 at age 31+ other than those 3? 8, 3 of which turned 35 at the end of the season. Pitchers are in decline in their mid 20's. So at 30-35 there's not some gigantic chasm of success vs failure.

If the gap isn't big in the ages we are talking about and the injury risk is random, why saddle yourself to a 5+ year deal vs a 2 year deal?

You aren't making a compelling argument to avoid a 34/35 year old pitcher on a shorter deal, especially when the pitchers we are talking about are damn near identical statistically.

Edited October 23, 2024 by Cuzi

[thawv]

7 hours ago, Stratos said:

If Belli opt out they have around 70m to spend after arb etc.  They can't sign all those guys without trades or going over the tax line.

I have them tendering 4 guys in arbitration.  My numbers show that if Belli opts out, it's going to be over 90 million to spend.  It's mid 60's if he doesn't opt out.  I'm using Cot's arb numbers and only bringing back 4 guys in arb. 

[squally1313]

5 hours ago, Stratos said:

This is anecdotal evidence.  You can find exceptions to anything.  A bunch of people smoke a pack a day and live until they're 100 isn't proof that smoking isn't harmful to health.  Guys like Charlie Morton are an extreme case.

Pitching injuries are far less predictable than age regression.  How many SP in the top 40 of fWAR last year were over age 34?   A quick glance I found a few 35 years old and none over 35.  You can do the same for top 40 position players.

If pitching injuring are common and not very predictable then why give a guy tens of millions and then up the risk factor significantly by signing an old one too?  They should stay as young as they reasonably can in the FA market.

You just got done using Marcus Stroman to justify your point in multiple posts.

I'm going to agree that older pitchers are more likely to regress in the aggregate, but that's also not a unique viewpoint. It's shared across baseball and baked into the contracts that are handed out for pitchers of that ilk. Jack Flaherty is going to get more money and more years than Kikuchi and Eovaldi even though they've put up similar production over the last two years. If you choose to play in these waters (with the upside being immediate production at cheaper rates than what a 29 year old would cost you), the onus is on the front office to do whatever they can to identify the skill sets/health profiles that are likely to stay steady for a couple more years.