Offseason Targets and Options for the Cubs Lineup

[Brian Kelder]

Now that the Cubs have hit the dreaded 0% playoff odds, it's time to analyze why they fell short in Tom Ricketts's stated expectation to win the division. In May and June, it was a deficient offense. They were the second-worst offense in the league for that long stretch. Take out those two months, and the club is 56-38. So, let's look ahead at the options the Cubs have to improve their offense and try to avoid a similar fate in 2025.

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Cody Bellinger, of course, is the big domino, and there are conflicting reports and counter-reports about his intentions. No matter what he decides, though, external additions need to be made. If he leaves, that just means they need to add two bats, instead of one. How can they do what's needed? There are a few avenues.

OPTION ONE: Target a cheap team and take their power hitter.
Specifically, the Guardians and the Athletics come to mind. Josh Naylor has slugged over 30 home runs and brings a phenomenal, frenetic energy to the Cleveland lineup, but that doesn't matter that much. What's important is that he's got only one year of team control remaining, and Kyle Manzardo has also hit well this September. Naylor has been a consistent power bat this season, one whom the Cubs could probably get for less than you would think. Only one year of control, sure, but bringing in Naylor buys some time for the kids to develop.

The Athletics have a star hitter of an even higher caliber, in Brent Rooker. He's a late bloomer who has dealt with a ton of injuries in his career. At age 30, he's fully broken out. Rooker followed up his 30 homers and .817 OPS from 2023 with this incredible stat line: 5.5 WAR, 38 homers, a .302 AVG, a .956 OPS, and a 170 WRC+. This one would be an upset, but Rooker's visit to the Friendly Confines this week should affirm everyone's faith that he'd fit in there.

The A's, presumably, want to sell some tickets in Sacramento, and Rooker is a draw for them.  With three arbitration years remaining, cost isn't an obstacle even for the notoriously thrifty Athletics. The Cubs would have to part with at least two of their prized top-100 prospects; that's not happening for a 30-year-old. Factor in the difficulties a new role and pressure could have on Rooker, and this is highly unlikely, but it's possible.

Brandon Lowe of the Rays is a possible free agent, though the team holds a fairly affordable option. He could fit in a lesser capacity as a decent power bat who could fill in at first, second, or DH. He would add a good bit of slug to the Cubs lineup when healthy, and act as a good stopgap for Matt Shaw and James Triantos to develop with less pressure.

OPTION 2:  Sign big-name free agents.
Unless Juan Soto is miraculously available at half price, here are the guys the Cubs could realistically target--and whether they actually will:

Alex Bregman: Nah, they've got Isaac Paredes.

Pete Alonso: Will want to set the market for first basemen, in average salary if not in term. Does that seem like a Jed Hoyer thing to do?

Willy Adames: The Cubs already have a Willy Adames. He's named Dansby Swanson. They can't tie up a bunch of money for him at second base, with its lesser defensive value. They should have traded for him instead of signing Swanson at all, but that's water under the bridge.

Anthony Santender: Covered well here as a lateral move. Read the article! It's a good one.

And that's the top of the market! It is not deep. If the Cubs are big free-agent players, it'll be on the pitching side, not the hitting. Look for incremental upgrades aimed at helping the team's depth and buying time for prospects to develop. Joc Pederson, Jorge Polanco, Lowe (if his club option is declined), and Max Kepler feel like the level of player the Cubs will be more likely to spend money on to improve in this market.

OPTION 3: The Unknown Target
Every offseason, someone is traded whom nobody knew was available. Perhaps the Blue Jays decide to reset, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette come to Wrigley. Depending on how the postseason goes, maybe the Guardians can't afford José Ramírez anymore. Are the Rangers going to shuffle around some pieces, like Adolis García or Marcus Semien?

The point is that somebody will come available that we can't know right now, unless we are front office people. Corbin Burnes was a Brewers ace, until he wasn't. Chris Sale to the Braves was incredibly impactful. Luis Arráez, at one point, was a stalwart at the top of the Twins lineup. Sean Murphy and Matt Olson could still be leading Oakland to some wins. You get the drift. An opportunity will materialize. Will the Cubs be in position to seize it?

OPTION 4: Play the kids.
More on this later.  It could actually happen and work, but we're focusing on additions, not in-house guys.

It's going to be up to Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins to be creative and find ways to improve the offense. Fans surely will want to see substantial improvements at the plate, but with limited options to sign players who are more than lateral moves, it will not be easy. Hoyer has been aggressive about getting his guy (Seiya Suzuki, sorta Dansby Swanson) and in some creative deals (Michael Busch). It will be fascinating to see how he operates in the last year of his contract, and whether he can finally lead the Cubs into the playoffs.

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[TJ11]

I am new to this site. The articles are very well written and fair.
My question is this, while I agree with the thoughts of the author of this piece, why should we believe that Jed and this front office will do what it takes to improve the roster? Not only have they boxed themselves in and blocked their prospects, they have also shown and inability to be creative in their roster Construction. I fully expect to see 75% of the same roster run out there again next year. Just like what happened last season. if I am the owner, I would be asking why the front office wasted $230 million this year. But so far, Tom seems fine with it.

[Bertz]

The most easy/direct/straightforward option is just to sign your favorite of Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernandez, Pete Alonso, or Tyler O'Neill.  These guys are all a tier below what we'd ultimately hope for, but they're very good hitters who would fit relatively cleanly into the 1B/OF/DH mix.  Bellinger's probably going to leave (IMO at least) and any of these guys would basically be 1 for 1 replacements of his salary and playing time while being more offense/power focused.  The one thing that gives me some pause is they are each likely to get a QO, and Jed has to this point been unwilling to pay the QO price for non-stars.

So if we're not looking at a FA, that obviously leaves trades.  It would be fun to just go get one of the primo guys like Vladito or Rooker, though I do wonder about whether those guys are actually available given they didn't get move in July.

I kind of wonder if we see a couple medium moves instead of one major move.  For instance, the team could add something like Brandon Lowe and Taylor Ward.  Ward would play everyday against lefties and part time against righties, while Lowe would do the opposite.  This mix and match approach would also make it easier to fold in the kids from Iowa as they make themselves ready.

[We Got The Whole 9]

35 minutes ago, TJ11 said:

I am new to this site. The articles are very well written and fair.
My question is this, while I agree with the thoughts of the author of this piece, why should we believe that Jed and this front office will do what it takes to improve the roster? Not only have they boxed themselves in and blocked their prospects, they have also shown and inability to be creative in their roster Construction. I fully expect to see 75% of the same roster run out there again next year. Just like what happened last season. if I am the owner, I would be asking why the front office wasted $230 million this year. But so far, Tom seems fine with it.

Jed being in his last year and 5 years removed from the playoffs, 7 years since a real playoff berth, should be the impetus to make major moves. Also they can't field all of those prospects unless they trade some MLB players. They should try to move some of them for established stars.

[Brian Kelder]

6 hours ago, TJ11 said:

I am new to this site. The articles are very well written and fair.
My question is this, while I agree with the thoughts of the author of this piece, why should we believe that Jed and this front office will do what it takes to improve the roster? Not only have they boxed themselves in and blocked their prospects, they have also shown and inability to be creative in their roster Construction. I fully expect to see 75% of the same roster run out there again next year. Just like what happened last season. if I am the owner, I would be asking why the front office wasted $230 million this year. But so far, Tom seems fine with it.

Thanks for the compliments and spread the word!  You have great points and I might steal some