Since Electing Not to Trade Mike Tauchman, Cubs Have Absolutely Buried Him on the Bench

[Matthew Trueblood]

Even after leading the month with a walkoff double and a home run the next day, the team's erstwhile fourth outfielder has been virtually invisible.

Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Back in spring training, Craig Counsell was proactive and firm. He sat down with Mike Tauchman right away to tell him he would be on the team, because Counsell rightly saw the immense value of Tauchman's offensive stability and defensive versatility. A high-OBP left-handed hitter who can acquit himself at all three outfield spots when the need arises, Tauchman was a perfect fit for the Cubs early in the season.

While he was sidelined by a groin strain in June and July, though, the ground shifted. Firstly, it's become increasingly clear that the team itself understands the fact that Seiya Suzuki needs to be an everyday DH. That created some opportunity for Tauchman earlier in the year, but with the team trying hard to give a long runway to Pete Crow-Armstrong and evaluate him for a future role, it's ultimately squeezed him. With Crow-Armstrong in center and Michael Busch firmly established at first base, Cody Bellinger has taken over in right field. For as long as Busch, Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ, Suzuki and Bellinger are healthy, it's clear that Counsell sees no room in the lineup for Tauchman.

Entering Wednesday night's game, Tauchman has only 16 plate appearances in August. He last started on Aug. 7, and even pinch-hit opportunities have been scarce. The player Counsell was so excited to install as a heavily used rotational piece is now an afterthought at the far end of the bench.

Some of this is planned obsolescence, of course. The team hoped Crow-Armstrong and Busch would assert themselves, and if they did, it was bound to make it tough to find playing time in the outfield and DH spots. Still, it's surprising, not least because the Cubs could have traded Tauchman to a contender at last month's deadline, giving him a chance to play a role like this on a team with a chance to win a World Series--and picking up some minor prospect in the exchange. If they were going to keep Tauchman, it seemed to make sense to create at least a modicum of playing time for him down the stretch, so they can make a more informed decision about retaining him on an arbitration-determined salary for next season. By stashing him as deep in the dugout as they have, they're missing that opportunity, after letting the chance to get even a fringe prospect in return for him slide by the boards.

Injuries, sustained failure from Crow-Armstrong, or an unexpected opt-out by Bellinger could restore Tauchman's relevance going into 2025. Even if Crow-Armstrong flames out, the team would probably next hand off center field to Kevin Alcántara, but having Tauchman as a platoon partner and cushion for the young player could come in handy. A Bellinger departure would open up a lot of left-handed playing time. That makes it reasonable to keep Tauchman, but then, the team also has to make room for Owen Caissie on the 40-man roster come November, and if Caissie turns out to be a capable regular, he's likely to get there by the middle of next season. In other words, in even the rosiest scenario for Tauchman, he probably spends another first half floating around to find playing time, and then gets marginalized again next June or July.

In that case, he would no longer have any trade value, so the Cubs have missed their penultimate chance to move him. Their last one will come this winter, by which time they surely hope to have a clearer idea of how Crow-Armstrong, Bellinger, Suzuki, Happ, Busch, Caissie, Alcántara, and Moisés Ballesteros can help them in 2025. What they probably won't have, though, is much good intel on what Tauchman can offer them. It's hard to demonstrate positive or negative future value with one's arms folded over the dugout railing.

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[Bertz]

How much trade value does a 4th outfielder, even a very good one, have?  I don't think the opportunity cost here is super high.

The timing sucked for trading Tauchman because we don't know what Bellinger's fate will be.  Cody's option decision is pretty up in the air.  He can easily clear the 2/$50M he has on his current deal, but he hasn't done enough for a megadeal.  As encouraging as the last six weeks have been for PCA (though keep in mind half of that occurred after this decision had to be made), he's clearly risky enough that you need to head into next year with contingencies for. 

Imagine a world where you trade Tauchman for a 40 FV prospect or two, PCA faceplants in August and September, and Bellinger opts out.  We'd all rightfully be on Jed's ass for being shortsighted about this totally foreseeable hole that now exists in CF.  The cost to avoid that scenario is the difference between what Tauchman would have brought back in July vs. what he could still bring back in December.  I don't see a lot of reason to think that difference is all that large.

[matto1233]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

How much trade value does a 4th outfielder, even a very good one, have?  I don't think the opportunity cost here is super high.

The timing sucked for trading Tauchman because we don't know what Bellinger's fate will be.  Cody's option decision is pretty up in the air.  He can easily clear the 2/$50M he has on his current deal, but he hasn't done enough for a megadeal.  As encouraging as the last six weeks have been for PCA (though keep in mind half of that occurred after this decision had to be made), he's clearly risky enough that you need to head into next year with contingencies for. 

Imagine a world where you trade Tauchman for a 40 FV prospect or two, PCA faceplants in August and September, and Bellinger opts out.  We'd all rightfully be on Jed's ass for being shortsighted about this totally foreseeable hole that now exists in CF.  The cost to avoid that scenario is the difference between what Tauchman would have brought back in July vs. what he could still bring back in December.  I don't see a lot of reason to think that difference is all that large.

Because of the defense, PCA is arguably already a more valuable player than Tauchman, and I don’t think the bat will get any worse. If the fate of next year’s team is Tauchman in CF every day, then next year’s team won’t be competing for the playoffs anyway. 

He likely wouldn’t bring back anything crazy valuable NOW, but Fernando Tatis and Yordan Alvarez weren’t crazy valuable when they were traded for a post-prime James Shields and Josh Fields, respectively. Obviously, that has a small chance of happening, but the Rays adage is that you have to extract the most value out of every player, from roster spot #1 to roster spot #26, and I’d agree with Trueblood that the Cubs didn’t do that here. 

[UMFan83]

Wait, Tauchman's not injured?  I was just thinking yesterday that I haven't seen him in awhile so assumed he was on the IL lol

[Bertz]

7 minutes ago, matto1233 said:

Because of the defense, PCA is arguably already a more valuable player than Tauchman, and I don’t think the bat will get any worse. If the fate of next year’s team is Tauchman in CF every day, then next year’s team won’t be competing for the playoffs anyway. 

He likely wouldn’t bring back anything crazy valuable NOW, but Fernando Tatis and Yordan Alvarez weren’t crazy valuable when they were traded for a post-prime James Shields and Josh Fields, respectively. Obviously, that has a small chance of happening, but the Rays adage is that you have to extract the most value out of every player, from roster spot #1 to roster spot #26, and I’d agree with Trueblood that the Cubs didn’t do that here. 

I can't imagine watching this year's team, seeing the dumpster fires at 3B and especially catcher, and being so flippant about having high quality depth behind a high variance young player.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Tauchman is arb eligible for the next 2 seasons, and there was no indication that he was a particularly hot name at the deadline.  So if the argument is 'even seemingly inconsequential trades can turn up big names', you can still do that!  And do it with greater knowledge of Bellinger and PCA's future to boot.