Cubs Prospects On the Decline: Pitchers

[Jason Ross]

There's an old saying: "There's no such thing as a pitching prospect." Why? Because, well, pitching prospects appear out of nowhere, and conversely, they disappear just as fast. Due to a combination of attrition, control problems and the high floor for sheer stuff in the modern game, pitching prospects just tank sometimes. Sadly, as much as we'd hope that every Cub pitching prospect was on the upswing, many aren't. Who landed themselves on the fallers list in the first half of 2024? 

Image courtesy of © Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

The reality of pitching prospects is that for every guy on the rise (like Porter Hodge or Hunter Bigge), you're probably able to find two or three who went the opposite way. Due to the stress put on pitchers and the amount of variance that is possible, pitchers come and go freely, often, and unpredictably. This year has been no different, with a handful of Cub prospects who haven't had the kind of year you'd have hoped for at the outset. 

Caleb Kilian, SP/RP, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A)
Kilian isn't really a "prospect", at this point, but he's also not a major-league player, or a consistent... anything, right now, so I'm going to include him here. It's been rough sailing for a while for him--really, since he came up and made his MLB debut. Working through issues with generating in-zone whiffs, then control issues, the hope was that the big righty would figure it out this year in Iowa and maybe be a bullpen arm. Instead, Kilian got hurt and has missed the entire year.

At the age of 26, being rostered on the 40-man, this is the kind of season he couldn't have to keep his MLB future alight. The good news for KIlian is that, reportedly, he's been hitting near 100 mph on his rehab assignment, and maybe (just maybe) a switch to the pen can unlock something. I still fear that there's no chase pitch, even if he's throwing insanely hard. He's struggled to find any sort of breaking ball that induces strikeouts and chases, with a failed spike-curve and changeup in his wake.

Kohl Franklin, SP, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A)
My heart hurts having to put Franklin on this list, as I've been a big fan of him since his draft year. Franklin has always had almost everything you want in a pitcher: He had the size, he had the stuff, he had the look. He just never had the health or the control (two major parts of being a quality pitcher). Entering 2024, it was a big "make-or-break" year for the righty, as he was 24 and starting to enter the range where you'd have to move on from him if he couldn't put it together. Through his first six innings on the season, Franklin looked great; striking out five, walking none, and even earning a promotion after one start! Then... Tommy John.

Franklin will miss the entire 2024 season, and likely most of 2025, rehabbing and getting his strength back. That means he'll be almost 26 years old when we see him next. Now, that's not the complete end of him. Bigge made his debut at 26, to a chorus of cheers. But Franklin will have used up most of his prospect slack by then, and may never really be a starter. I'm bummed out. There was a truly good pitcher somewhere in Franklin. It's almost assuredly never going to be found.

Brody McCullough, SP, Tennessee Smokies (Double-A)
This one feels a bit harsh, because when he was pitching, he looked really good again, but his season has also been derailed by injuries. Much like the aforementioned Franklin, his age puts him in a weird place as a prospect. The good news is that McCullough had done enough to get promoted to Tennessee; looked great in his debut with the Smokies; and was looking like he might have been a real find as a 10th-round pick.

The bad news is that the 24-year-old has logged just 14 innings on the season, and is just nine months younger than Franklin. Given all that, if we're being fair, he belongs on this list. I don't think it's really his fault. Pitchers do this. They get hurt.

We don't really know what the extent of his most recent injury is, only that he hasn't taken the mound since May 10. But considering there isn't news of him throwing or rehabbing out there, it's safe to say that his return isn't imminent, either. The hope is that it's not arm-related, and that McCullough can still get two months or so of action in Double-A for the season, but as of now, he's trending the wrong way--despite the impressive results when he's on the mound. A healthy turnaround could make this placement look bad in the future, and I'd happily own it if he can look more like the healthy guy we've seen at times.

Drew Gray, SP, South Bend (High-A)
When the Cubs traded Jackson Ferris this offseason, Drew Gray became the de facto top lefty in the Cubs' system. With strong draft pedigree and stuff, the lefty was considered to be a potential breakout candidate, assuming his control came around. Considering he's on this list and not the other one, you can figure out quickly that the control didn't come around. Gray has walked more hitters than he's struck out this season, and has walked three or more hitters in his last eight starts. There's simply no feel for his mechanics right now. The positive is that he's still just 21 years old and left-handed; he's going to get more chances. And while this latest run is terrible, the handful of starts before that were more encouraging (though still problematic, with a 20% walk rate in those 19 innings).

Luis Devers, SP, South Bend (High-A)
Coming off his MiLB Pitcher of the Year Award in 2022, Devers looked like he might have a future in the Cubs system. There were always issues in his profile: Devers only really had one plus offering (his changeup) and everything else was fairly middling. Sadly, Devers has not been able to use his one good offering to overcome his shortcomings, and coupled with injury and rehab, the prospect light on Devers is very dim right now.

Back in South Bend, where he won his award in 2022, the 2024 season has been far less kind. In under 30 innings, Devers has been shelled when he's thrown strikes, sporting an ERA north of 7, and when he's not throwing strikes, has walked almost 15% of the hitters he's faced. At the age of 24, it's looking unlikely that Devers is going to have enough juice to be an MLB arm down the road. Further complicating things is that his profile just doesn't look appealing as a reliever, either. Devers is a cautionary tale of how numbers at lower levels can be deceiving at times, hiding major prospect red flags under the surface.

This is why you can never stop stockpiling young talent. it's why, even with one of the most highly-rate farm systems in baseball, the team needs to enter the second half with a focus on bolstering it. Detours are more numerous than direct routes where pitching development is concerned.

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[Outshined_One]

This might come across as a tad bit callous, but there's something oddly comforting reading an article like this and realizing that most of the pitchers' struggles can be chalked up to injury, rather than lack of development.  Don't get me wrong, it sucks that we haven't seen fully healthy versions of Killian, et al. this season, but this is significantly better than the bad ol' days of guys like Mark Pawelek and Hayden Simpson just flat-out sucking.

[CubinNY]

2 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

This might come across as a tad bit callous, but there's something oddly comforting reading an article like this and realizing that most of the pitchers' struggles can be chalked up to injury, rather than lack of development.  Don't get me wrong, it sucks that we haven't seen fully healthy versions of Killian, et al. this season, but this is significantly better than the bad ol' days of guys like Mark Pawelek and Hayden Simpson just flat-out sucking.

Bobby Brownlie (who now works for Scott Boras)

[Tryptamine]

22 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

This might come across as a tad bit callous, but there's something oddly comforting reading an article like this and realizing that most of the pitchers' struggles can be chalked up to injury, rather than lack of development.  Don't get me wrong, it sucks that we haven't seen fully healthy versions of Killian, et al. this season, but this is significantly better than the bad ol' days of guys like Mark Pawelek and Hayden Simpson just flat-out sucking.

That Hayden Simpson pick is still the most baffling draft pick I've ever seen the Cubs make. If he was a guy say ranked in the 50's you could say oh it's just a significant under slot , but BA had Simpson ranked barely inside their top 200 if I remember correctly. It was just such an obscure pick and a clear case of trying to be the smartest guy in the room.

[Outshined_One]

16 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

That Hayden Simpson pick is still the most baffling draft pick I've ever seen the Cubs make. If he was a guy say ranked in the 50's you could say oh it's just a significant under slot , but BA had Simpson ranked barely inside their top 200 if I remember correctly. It was just such an obscure pick and a clear case of trying to be the smartest guy in the room.

I vividly remember waiting for the bus at North and Clybourne while following the 2010 MLB Draft on my phone (I think through MLB's or BA's website).  The Cubs' pick came up, and I remember dreading the possibility of Alex Wimmers.  The site froze for what felt like 15 minutes until Hayden Simpson's name finally came up, with no links or information beyond position and college.  All I could do was laugh.

I just tried digging up NSBB's 2010 MLB Draft thread, but sadly it seems to have been lost to the ages.  That was an all-time doom scrolling thread.  It was as if everyone's dogs had just been put down because the vet bills were too expensive.

[Jason Ross]

38 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

This might come across as a tad bit callous, but there's something oddly comforting reading an article like this and realizing that most of the pitchers' struggles can be chalked up to injury, rather than lack of development.  Don't get me wrong, it sucks that we haven't seen fully healthy versions of Killian, et al. this season, but this is significantly better than the bad ol' days of guys like Mark Pawelek and Hayden Simpson just flat-out sucking.

In an odd sense, I felt the same way, too. I sat down a week ago and I came up with a five part article series; 

Hitters on the rise/decline

Pitchers on the rise/decline

Overall health (spoiler alert!!) 

When I came up with it, I really went into the "pitchers on the decline" with the idea that it'd be an easy article...pitchers tank more than any other prospect. Then I sat down and begin writing this and I came to an odd conclusion...outside of like, Drew Gray, there wasn't a "good" Cub pitching prospect that was just having a "bad" year. 

Now, part of that is that the Cubs' pitching depth has largely been promoted lately; Brown, Wicks, Bigge, Roberts, Little, Palencia...so there's a weird bit of "fog" on the Cubs pitching. There's guys who have struggled with control, like JP Wheat or Nazier Mule, but they're in their infancy as a prospect and I couldn't throw them on this list yet. But most of the Cubs prospect depth left has had neutral seasons (like Cade Horton, who cruised through Tennessee and has struggled with Iowa a bit and a lat injury) or objectively solid seasons. 

The only real attrition has come through injury. And even then, guys like Franklin started off the year good! It was six innings, so infancy of the season, but it was good! And then TJS. It was somewhat...refreshing? 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Outshined_One said:

I vividly remember waiting for the bus at North and Clybourne while following the 2010 MLB Draft on my phone (I think through MLB's or BA's website).  The Cubs' pick came up, and I remember dreading the possibility of Alex Wimmers.  The site froze for what felt like 15 minutes until Hayden Simpson's name finally came up, with no links or information beyond position and college.  All I could do was laugh.

I just tried digging up NSBB's 2010 MLB Draft thread, but sadly it seems to have been lost to the ages.  That was an all-time doom scrolling thread.  It was as if everyone's dogs had just been put down because the vet bills were too expensive.

We had a guy on PSD who was clearly connected with the Cubs FO at the time of the 2010 draft. He called the Simpson pick before the draft. Not like "moments before" twitter style now, but well before. Still miffed at that one. 

[Outshined_One]

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

We had a guy on PSD who was clearly connected with the Cubs FO at the time of the 2010 draft. He called the Simpson pick before the draft. Not like "moments before" twitter style now, but well before. Still miffed at that one. 

The funniest part about the draft thread was watching everyone post-Simpson pick immediately divide into two camps, with one side flipping out over the team being cheap tightwads who couldn't be bothered to pony up for an overslot like Zach Lee, and the other side, well:

Spoiler

And then the second round came up...Reggie Golden:

Spoiler

And then, after it became obvious Matt Szczur would be the only meaningful overslot pick:

Spoiler

Cripes, that draft was depressing.

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

The funniest part about the draft thread was watching everyone post-Simpson pick immediately divide into two camps, with one side flipping out over the team being cheap tightwads who couldn't be bothered to pony up for an overslot like Zach Lee, and the other side, well:

  Reveal hidden contents

And then the second round came up...Reggie Golden:

  Reveal hidden contents

And then, after it became obvious Matt Szczur would be the only meaningful overslot pick:

  Reveal hidden contents

Cripes, that draft was depressing.

I just started to get into the entire draft process around the Tim Wiklin Tyler Colvin/Hayden Simpson/Brett Jackson era. Those were bleak years. Ugh. I can safely look back and say I hate all three picks at the time, and I feel justified in that disgust using hindsight (though you could argue Colvin was a win in that he had a few fWAR here or there, but I refuse to accept my own logic this time and I don't care!). It's amazing to see how much more I enjoy how the Cubs do things under Kantrovitz versus Wilkin. McLeod had his ups and downs (and I think his downs were more in "development" than "scouting", IMO) but Kantrovitz feels like he "gets it". Or maybe he just "gets me". 

Ugh it sounds like I want to date Dan. 

Brb, going to go draw a red heart around my headshot of Danny. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

That guy triggers people more than a 3rd overall pick we made right as our team was ascending to playoff contender, bypassing Matt Wieters and others. Hell, we could have drafted LaPorta and sent him to CLE for Sabathia. One of our worst picks of all time that looked horrible at the time as his plate discipline was in serious question.

[Outshined_One]

5 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

That guy triggers people more than a 3rd overall pick we made right as our team was ascending to playoff contender, bypassing Matt Wieters and others. Hell, we could have drafted LaPorta and sent him to CLE for Sabathia. One of our worst picks of all time that looked horrible at the time as his plate discipline was in serious question.

Vitters was at least defensible at the time, as there was a lot of chatter about whether he or Moustakas was the top HS bat and both were projected as Top 5 picks.  He didn't live up to the hype in any meaningful way, although I remember he had awful injury/health luck in the minors; I want to say an extended bout of mono and a broken wrist from a HPB?

The more baffling pick that year was actually immediately after the Cubs, when the Pirates took Moskos, who was generally seen as a mid to late 1st rounder, when they had their proverbial pick of the litter.

[Tryptamine]

What has been the most Hayden Simpson pick in the MLB draft since then? Is it Barret Loux or am I not remembering that right?

[Jason Ross]

23 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

Vitters was at least defensible at the time, as there was a lot of chatter about whether he or Moustakas was the top HS bat and both were projected as Top 5 picks.  He didn't live up to the hype in any meaningful way, although I remember he had awful injury/health luck in the minors; I want to say an extended bout of mono and a broken wrist from a HPB?

The more baffling pick that year was actually immediately after the Cubs, when the Pirates took Moskos, who was generally seen as a mid to late 1st rounder, when they had their proverbial pick of the litter.

Entirely. No one at the time thought Vitters was an off the board pick. Like looking back, yeah, totally a bummer that he didn't work out. In his defense he had a good offensive MiLB career. He was really good at low-a (133 wRC+ at 18), A (146 wRC+ at 19), and high-A (131 wRC+ at 20...he did struggle at double-A). Triple-A by 22, with a 17 K%, 6.6 BB%, .200+ ISO and a 121 wRC+. It's not super-studly, but that's a good line for a 22 year old in Triple-A. Sadly, it's pre-statcast era, so I suspect a look at that data would show the swing decisions were always rough. I think we looked at the time at the OPS and stuff and were more "whelmed" than anything, especially as defensively he wasn't good at third. But looking back he was pretty alright with the bat in terms of most of the data we could have seen (on top of things like wRC+ now). 

That's just the prospect game. Sometimes guys bust.