Cubs Prospects On the Decline: Pitchers

This might come across as a tad bit callous, but there's something oddly comforting reading an article like this and realizing that most of the pitchers' struggles can be chalked up to injury, rather than lack of development.  Don't get me wrong, it sucks that we haven't seen fully healthy versions of Killian, et al. this season, but this is significantly better than the bad ol' days of guys like Mark Pawelek and Hayden Simpson just flat-out sucking.

2 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

This might come across as a tad bit callous, but there's something oddly comforting reading an article like this and realizing that most of the pitchers' struggles can be chalked up to injury, rather than lack of development.  Don't get me wrong, it sucks that we haven't seen fully healthy versions of Killian, et al. this season, but this is significantly better than the bad ol' days of guys like Mark Pawelek and Hayden Simpson just flat-out sucking.

Bobby Brownlie (who now works for Scott Boras)

22 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

This might come across as a tad bit callous, but there's something oddly comforting reading an article like this and realizing that most of the pitchers' struggles can be chalked up to injury, rather than lack of development.  Don't get me wrong, it sucks that we haven't seen fully healthy versions of Killian, et al. this season, but this is significantly better than the bad ol' days of guys like Mark Pawelek and Hayden Simpson just flat-out sucking.

That Hayden Simpson pick is still the most baffling draft pick I've ever seen the Cubs make. If he was a guy say ranked in the 50's you could say oh it's just a significant under slot , but BA had Simpson ranked barely inside their top 200 if I remember correctly. It was just such an obscure pick and a clear case of trying to be the smartest guy in the room.

16 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

That Hayden Simpson pick is still the most baffling draft pick I've ever seen the Cubs make. If he was a guy say ranked in the 50's you could say oh it's just a significant under slot , but BA had Simpson ranked barely inside their top 200 if I remember correctly. It was just such an obscure pick and a clear case of trying to be the smartest guy in the room.

I vividly remember waiting for the bus at North and Clybourne while following the 2010 MLB Draft on my phone (I think through MLB's or BA's website).  The Cubs' pick came up, and I remember dreading the possibility of Alex Wimmers.  The site froze for what felt like 15 minutes until Hayden Simpson's name finally came up, with no links or information beyond position and college.  All I could do was laugh.

I just tried digging up NSBB's 2010 MLB Draft thread, but sadly it seems to have been lost to the ages.  That was an all-time doom scrolling thread.  It was as if everyone's dogs had just been put down because the vet bills were too expensive.

38 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

This might come across as a tad bit callous, but there's something oddly comforting reading an article like this and realizing that most of the pitchers' struggles can be chalked up to injury, rather than lack of development.  Don't get me wrong, it sucks that we haven't seen fully healthy versions of Killian, et al. this season, but this is significantly better than the bad ol' days of guys like Mark Pawelek and Hayden Simpson just flat-out sucking.

In an odd sense, I felt the same way, too. I sat down a week ago and I came up with a five part article series; 

Hitters on the rise/decline

Pitchers on the rise/decline

Overall health (spoiler alert!!) 

When I came up with it, I really went into the "pitchers on the decline" with the idea that it'd be an easy article...pitchers tank more than any other prospect. Then I sat down and begin writing this and I came to an odd conclusion...outside of like, Drew Gray, there wasn't a "good" Cub pitching prospect that was just having a "bad" year. 

Now, part of that is that the Cubs' pitching depth has largely been promoted lately; Brown, Wicks, Bigge, Roberts, Little, Palencia...so there's a weird bit of "fog" on the Cubs pitching. There's guys who have struggled with control, like JP Wheat or Nazier Mule, but they're in their infancy as a prospect and I couldn't throw them on this list yet. But most of the Cubs prospect depth left has had neutral seasons (like Cade Horton, who cruised through Tennessee and has struggled with Iowa a bit and a lat injury) or objectively solid seasons. 

The only real attrition has come through injury. And even then, guys like Franklin started off the year good! It was six innings, so infancy of the season, but it was good! And then TJS. It was somewhat...refreshing? 

Just now, Outshined_One said:

I vividly remember waiting for the bus at North and Clybourne while following the 2010 MLB Draft on my phone (I think through MLB's or BA's website).  The Cubs' pick came up, and I remember dreading the possibility of Alex Wimmers.  The site froze for what felt like 15 minutes until Hayden Simpson's name finally came up, with no links or information beyond position and college.  All I could do was laugh.

I just tried digging up NSBB's 2010 MLB Draft thread, but sadly it seems to have been lost to the ages.  That was an all-time doom scrolling thread.  It was as if everyone's dogs had just been put down because the vet bills were too expensive.

We had a guy on PSD who was clearly connected with the Cubs FO at the time of the 2010 draft. He called the Simpson pick before the draft. Not like "moments before" twitter style now, but well before. Still miffed at that one. 

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

We had a guy on PSD who was clearly connected with the Cubs FO at the time of the 2010 draft. He called the Simpson pick before the draft. Not like "moments before" twitter style now, but well before. Still miffed at that one. 

The funniest part about the draft thread was watching everyone post-Simpson pick immediately divide into two camps, with one side flipping out over the team being cheap tightwads who couldn't be bothered to pony up for an overslot like Zach Lee, and the other side, well:

And then the second round came up...Reggie Golden:

And then, after it became obvious Matt Szczur would be the only meaningful overslot pick:

Cripes, that draft was depressing.

6 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

The funniest part about the draft thread was watching everyone post-Simpson pick immediately divide into two camps, with one side flipping out over the team being cheap tightwads who couldn't be bothered to pony up for an overslot like Zach Lee, and the other side, well:

  Reveal hidden contents

And then the second round came up...Reggie Golden:

  Reveal hidden contents

And then, after it became obvious Matt Szczur would be the only meaningful overslot pick:

  Reveal hidden contents

Cripes, that draft was depressing.

I just started to get into the entire draft process around the Tim Wiklin Tyler Colvin/Hayden Simpson/Brett Jackson era. Those were bleak years. Ugh. I can safely look back and say I hate all three picks at the time, and I feel justified in that disgust using hindsight (though you could argue Colvin was a win in that he had a few fWAR here or there, but I refuse to accept my own logic this time and I don't care!). It's amazing to see how much more I enjoy how the Cubs do things under Kantrovitz versus Wilkin. McLeod had his ups and downs (and I think his downs were more in "development" than "scouting", IMO) but Kantrovitz feels like he "gets it". Or maybe he just "gets me". 

Ugh it sounds like I want to date Dan. 

Brb, going to go draw a red heart around my headshot of Danny. 

That guy triggers people more than a 3rd overall pick we made right as our team was ascending to playoff contender, bypassing Matt Wieters and others. Hell, we could have drafted LaPorta and sent him to CLE for Sabathia. One of our worst picks of all time that looked horrible at the time as his plate discipline was in serious question.

5 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

That guy triggers people more than a 3rd overall pick we made right as our team was ascending to playoff contender, bypassing Matt Wieters and others. Hell, we could have drafted LaPorta and sent him to CLE for Sabathia. One of our worst picks of all time that looked horrible at the time as his plate discipline was in serious question.

Vitters was at least defensible at the time, as there was a lot of chatter about whether he or Moustakas was the top HS bat and both were projected as Top 5 picks.  He didn't live up to the hype in any meaningful way, although I remember he had awful injury/health luck in the minors; I want to say an extended bout of mono and a broken wrist from a HPB?

The more baffling pick that year was actually immediately after the Cubs, when the Pirates took Moskos, who was generally seen as a mid to late 1st rounder, when they had their proverbial pick of the litter.

What has been the most Hayden Simpson pick in the MLB draft since then? Is it Barret Loux or am I not remembering that right?

23 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

Vitters was at least defensible at the time, as there was a lot of chatter about whether he or Moustakas was the top HS bat and both were projected as Top 5 picks.  He didn't live up to the hype in any meaningful way, although I remember he had awful injury/health luck in the minors; I want to say an extended bout of mono and a broken wrist from a HPB?

The more baffling pick that year was actually immediately after the Cubs, when the Pirates took Moskos, who was generally seen as a mid to late 1st rounder, when they had their proverbial pick of the litter.

Entirely. No one at the time thought Vitters was an off the board pick. Like looking back, yeah, totally a bummer that he didn't work out. In his defense he had a good offensive MiLB career. He was really good at low-a (133 wRC+ at 18), A (146 wRC+ at 19), and high-A (131 wRC+ at 20...he did struggle at double-A). Triple-A by 22, with a 17 K%, 6.6 BB%, .200+ ISO and a 121 wRC+. It's not super-studly, but that's a good line for a 22 year old in Triple-A. Sadly, it's pre-statcast era, so I suspect a look at that data would show the swing decisions were always rough. I think we looked at the time at the OPS and stuff and were more "whelmed" than anything, especially as defensively he wasn't good at third. But looking back he was pretty alright with the bat in terms of most of the data we could have seen (on top of things like wRC+ now). 

That's just the prospect game. Sometimes guys bust.