The Value of Selling Even When You’re (Probably) Not Going to Get the 1st Overall Pick

[Brandon Glick]

“As Cubs fans, it’s easy to fall back into the ‘Lovable Losers’ mantra. It’s a moniker that followed the franchise and its dedicated fanbase for over a century. And since the departure of the curse-buster himself, Theo Epstein, following the pandemic-shortened season in 2020, the Cubs have resumed their place among the hierarchy of baseball’s most prolific sellers.”

Image courtesy of © Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

I wrote that exact introduction nearly a year ago, as the prelude to my first-ever article for North Side Baseball: “The Value of Buying Even When You’re (Probably) Not Going to Win the World Series”. The Cubs would prove me prescient in the days that followed, as the team scooped up Jeimer Candelario and José Cuas ahead of the trade deadline in an attempt to merely get the team playing meaningful games in September again. Though they would end up collapsing and fell short of the postseason, it was still nice to see the Cubs choose a path with conviction.

Now, a year later, I call upon the Cubs again to choose a path, though a far less enjoyable one. As I wrote last week, the Cubs’ hesitancy to spend in free agency this offseason has led them down a far less prosperous road this season. Still saddled in last place in the NL Central and double-digit games behind the first-place Milwaukee Brewers, the team simply isn’t built to overcome deficits, either in the games they play or in the standings.

As the season has worn on, it's become clear that this iteration of the Chicago Cubs won’t be sniffing the postseason. So, then, it’s intuitive that the team spends the remainder of the year doing whatever it can to bolster its chances in the seasons to come. If that means trading away fan favorites and tanking for a higher draft pick, then so be it. We should all be used to it by now.

At this point, Cody Bellinger is all but certainly a goner. The reigning NL Comeback Player of the Year may be one of the few consistent bats in Craig Counsell’s lineup, but that also means he’ll be one of the team’s most valuable pieces on the trading block. Though he hasn’t matched last year’s tremendous effort, his .738 OPS and lasting ability to play quality defense at first base and all three outfield spots should make him a seamless fit for any contender needing a left-handed bat.

If they can, the Cubs will also look to dump Jameson Taillon and his hefty contract on another squad. The right-handed starter was disastrous at the start of his Cubs’ tenure, but he turned things around in the second half of 2023. This year, he’s pitching like a frontline starter, with a sub-3 ERA in 81 1/3 innings pitched and a FIP of 3.80. If teams are convinced his turnaround is for real, then Taillon and his remaining 2.5 years of control could bring a significant asset back to Chicago.

The third-longest tenured player on the roster, Nico Hoerner, is also a name being floated around the rumor mill. He has two and a half years left on the contract extension he signed last spring, at a relative pittance compared to other players of his ilk ($11.5 million salary this year and next, $12 million salary in 2026). Attaching his Gold Glove defense and speed to the offensive player he was last year (.729 OPS) rather than this year (.667 OPS) yields a profile that’s bound to generate a lot of trade interest, especially given that Hoerner just turned 27 in May.

Beyond those three, the list of potential Cubs trade candidates is long. If the team is looking for a quick turnaround in 2025, then the team may opt to hold onto their long-term assets, while trying to fetch a price for some usable (if underwhelming) ancillary players like Patrick Wisdom and Héctor Neris. If the team is committing to a longer retooling window, then perhaps Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Christopher Morel, or Javier Assad should be on the market. And if the Cubs are ready to take a sledgehammer to the monument of mediocrity they’ve built over the last five years, then everyone not named Justin Steele or Shota Imanaga should probably start buying extra luggage, just in case.

Of course, trading any combination of players this year in the name of tanking doesn’t guarantee the Cubs anything, like it did in the past. The new MLB Draft Lottery ensures that even teams that sell out for losses won’t always be rewarded for their “efforts”. The Cleveland Guardians, who finished last season with a middling-but-not-terrible 76-86 record, beat the odds at the 2023 Winter Meetings, claiming the first overall pick in this month’s draft despite having just the ninth-best odds to do so (2.0%).

As it stands, there are currently five teams with a worse record than the Chicago Cubs: the Los Angeles Angels, the Oakland Athletics, the Miami Marlins, the Colorado Rockies, and the historically bad Chicago White Sox. The Cubs likely have too much talent and too much of a cushion to fall beneath any of those teams in the standings, but even if they let the Angels usurp them, their odds to “earn” the first overall pick still won’t be favorable. The three worst teams by record share an equal 18.3% chance to get the top slot, followed by the fourth-worst team’s 14.7% odds. Every team after that has odds below 9.0%.

Still, it would be a waste to not at least try. There’s no use trying to outrun the treadmill of mediocrity the North Siders find themselves stranded on. They have some valuable players who could bring back a couple of interesting prospects in a trade, and selling at the deadline could give them better odds at winning the draft lottery. At the very least, losing more would insulate them from falling too far in the draft order.

To put it plainly, these 2024 Cubs probably aren’t going to snag the first overall draft pick. It’s more likely than not that they’ll be picking outside the top five again. But maybe, with a few small subtractions from the roster, they can back their way into a premier selection. Hell, if Bellinger and Hoerner are shipped out, maybe they can luck their way into their highest selection since taking Kris Bryant No. 2 overall in 2013. Failing that, though, it would just be nice to see the Cubs admit they aren’t good enough, and that they need to do better going forward.

On the brink of success lies the precipice of failure. Trying to make this season more than it is could steer the team right off that cliff. They need to rein themselves in and look for another way forward.

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[jersey cubs fan]

I am all for breaking up the band and moving in a different direction but if the motivation is to lose more and maybe climb the draft board a little, screw that. 

[Guest234]

Do you proofread? 512 million is a little high even for Nico.

[CubinNY]

The WS are not in the lottery, but I agree with Goony. The point is not to make the team bad, but to make it better as fast as possible. 

Unless the Cubs go on an unexpected run of greatness to finish the season, I think the Ricketts are content to give Jed one more year to finish his contract. Next year he's going to need to pull a rabbit out of his hat to keep his job. 

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’ve seen comments in this vein about selling and wonder…how dumb are yous who promote selling counting on other teams to be?

Thank you for pointing this out, albeit in Tom-speak. There isn't some huge variance of opinion on these guys throughout the league. GMs aren't making trades for players based on their baseball cards. I think Taillon has value to us as a mediocre/average bird in hand (though I don't know, since 6/1, which includes a bad start, results wise, against CWS, 3.14/3.40/3.73, 9 K/9, 1.26 BB/9 in 7 starts is very solid.) than whatever 35 FV prospect someone would throw our way. If I'm running the team and have autonomy to get a replacement in the next 6 months, sure, I'm a little more convinced. But as a fan of the Cubs and a not-fan of Ricketts, I'm not dumping the guy who is essentially paid what he's worth and just blindly assuming better things are coming.