The Value of Buying Even When You’re (Probably) Not Going to Win the World Series

Quote

The 2023 Cubs, fresh off two consecutive deadline fire sales

I just want to point out they fire saled like two pop up relievers last year 

I feel confident in saying that the Cubs will aim higher than CJ Cron and Candelario 

I vacillate from one end of the continuum to the other. Right now, I'm in the "they should treat this season like 2015" mode and not do too much damage to the potential future by trading away top-end prospects. But at the same time, the depth of the system makes this course of action probable and perhaps smart. 

11 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

But at the same time, the depth of the system makes this course of action probable and perhaps smart. 

There's also the forthcoming 40 man crunch that was going to make some of these trades inevitable, albeit originally in the upcoming offseason.

I'm wondering if the Cubs will do something weird like trade Stroman, but also acquire a SP who's under team control through '24/'25.

43 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I just want to point out they fire saled like two pop up relievers last year 

I feel confident in saying that the Cubs will aim higher than CJ Cron and Candelario 

I wish I had your confidence. I havnt seen anything from Hoyer to make me think "aiming high" is in his vocabulary. And I suspect he won't be able to take on significant salary because of the Ricketts deathly fear of the tax. Young, cheap, unproven, controllable guys or league average vets that can be acquired cheaply is probably the wheelhouse here. 

7 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

There's also the forthcoming 40 man crunch that was going to make some of these trades inevitable, albeit originally in the upcoming offseason.

I'm wondering if the Cubs will do something weird like trade Stroman, but also acquire a SP who's under team control through '24/'25.

Yah they've got to be looking at shopping for long term pieces with their depth. It just makes too much sense here.

9 minutes ago, SOFNR said:

I wish I had your confidence. I havnt seen anything from Hoyer to make think "aiming high" is in his vocabulary. And I suspect he won't be able to take on significant salary because of the Ricketts deathly fear of the tax. Young, cheap, unproven, controllable guys or league average vets that can be acquired cheaply is probably the wheelhouse here. 

I have!

- Landed PCA when many were happy to land like Vientos or Alexei Ramirez in 2021

- Signed the right SS despite sooooo muuuuuch noooooise. It’s the single most badass thing a Cubs GMident has ever done IMO - to *actually* go against the grain in a way that launches the franchise forward. I can’t speak highly of it enough, earned tons of credibilities with me 

Hoyer’s impressed me with his specificity, he isn’t just shopping for Top 100 like we see many on the internet carelessly suggest when they talk about being an intelligent GMident. He goes after players and profiles that have mass appeal eventually and some meat on the bone. It’s what everyone nuthugs the Rays for and will be huge for the future of Cubs. First time this org’s had any backbone and isn’t just happy to take what they’re told to take 

You're always unlikely to win the world series.  2016 feels like destiny in hindsight but in reality we were incredibly close to getting nothing out of that tank and spank generation.

I am not particularly down with the horror of letting people to "FOR NOTHING?!".  There was always a time limit on your control of the player, you never had that future value to begin with.  

If all you're going to get is a couple of long shot prospects that are just going to kick some other long shot prospects out of roster spots, just have some organizational self respect and play baseball.

Scott Effross was a fan favorite?

20 minutes ago, cl smooth said:

Scott Effross was a fan favorite?

People who hated the manager said his last name a lot?

2 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I have!

- Landed PCA when many were happy to land like Vientos or Alexei Ramirez in 2021

- Signed the right SS despite sooooo muuuuuch noooooise. It’s the single most badass thing a Cubs GMident has ever done IMO - to *actually* go against the grain in a way that launches the franchise forward. I can’t speak highly of it enough, earned tons of credibilities with me 

Hoyer’s impressed me with his specificity, he isn’t just shopping for Top 100 like we see many on the internet carelessly suggest when they talk about being an intelligent GMident. He goes after players and profiles that have mass appeal eventually and some meat on the bone. It’s what everyone nuthugs the Rays for and will be huge for the future of Cubs. First time this org’s had any backbone and isn’t just happy to take what they’re told to take 

Swanson has worked out great, but a contributing factor to signing him was that he was the cheapest of the top SS available too.

36 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Swanson has worked out great, but a contributing factor to signing him was that he was the cheapest of the top SS available too.

I’ve never bought this for a second with how dramatically different his skillset was from the other SSs. It’s a position that fits a wider narrative about Cubs that doesn’t really exist anymore. The Ricketts and co have built their new foundations, will get an even tighter cap one day, the FO knows the rules by now, and everyone knows infinity credibilities will roll in if they go a dollar over the cap because it’s just that easy 

Basically the Ricketts and Hoyer couldn’t care less what one contract costs if the whole is under control 

4 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I just want to point out they fire saled like two pop up relievers last year 

I feel confident in saying that the Cubs will aim higher than CJ Cron and Candelario 

It's 100% true that the Cubs' deadline sale last year was far less implosive than the year before, but that's mostly because they had less to trade away (and the Contreras trade to the Astros was nixed at the last second). My point was more so that the Cubs have been among the most obvious and voluminous sellers in the last two years on the market. 

And while I would love to share your optimism, something tells me Jed and "aiming high" don't always mesh (at least for now). 

4 hours ago, CubinNY said:

I vacillate from one end of the continuum to the other. Right now, I'm in the "they should treat this season like 2015" mode and not do too much damage to the potential future by trading away top-end prospects. But at the same time, the depth of the system makes this course of action probable and perhaps smart. 

I think this a great attitude to have. Only difference for me is that in 2015, most of the future core of the roster was already up in the majors. Right now, a lot of those big prospects (PCA, Alcantara, Horton, etc.) are still in the minors. 

4 hours ago, Outshined_One said:

There's also the forthcoming 40 man crunch that was going to make some of these trades inevitable, albeit originally in the upcoming offseason.

I'm wondering if the Cubs will do something weird like trade Stroman, but also acquire a SP who's under team control through '24/'25.

Definitely wouldn't mind seeing Stroman traded for a cost-controlled corner infielder, and then flipping one those Triple A prospects (Perlaza?) for a pitcher. But this is a seller's market, so it'll take a lot more than we're used to for a quality SP. 

3 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

You're always unlikely to win the world series.  2016 feels like destiny in hindsight but in reality we were incredibly close to getting nothing out of that tank and spank generation.

I am not particularly down with the horror of letting people to "FOR NOTHING?!".  There was always a time limit on your control of the player, you never had that future value to begin with.  

 

If all you're going to get is a couple of long shot prospects that are just going to kick some other long shot prospects out of roster spots, just have some organizational self respect and play baseball.

 

Oh absolutely - even the Braves this year only have a 20% chance based on the models (which, who even knows how accurate those can ever really be). 

And there are certainly circumstances where standing pat makes sense. But the Cubs have two of the BEST trade chips on the market right now. They certainly don't need to sell the whole team off, but it's organizational malpractice not to cash in on such a seller's market (should they choose to sell that is). 

3 hours ago, cl smooth said:

Scott Effross was a fan favorite?

I certainly loved him. And there was a lot of boo-hooing on twitter when he was traded (that's how you determine a player's popularity nowadays, right?).