Cubs Pitching Prospects on the Rise

[Jason Ross]

The first half has seen the Cubs promote a handful of pitching prospects, headlined by Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks. While, generally, the Cubs' position players are thought to be "ahead" of the pitchers, the system has some exciting arms moving up the ranks. Which ones make our prospects on the rise list?

Image courtesy of © Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports

Much has been made over the years about the Cubs' inconsistent or insufficient pitching development, but I think there are a lot of good seeds in their farm right now, and that the Cubs are moving forward. That doesn't mean everything is perfect, but I think they're trending in the right direction. A handful of notable Cub pitching prospects have made some gains this year by either flashing improved stuff, improved control, or simply, improved health. 

Hunter Bigge, RP Chicago Cubs (MLB)
There probably isn't a prospect who's made his name known on Twitter in the 2024 season more than Bigge. He's a 26-year-old reliever, who signed with the Cubs in 2019 out of Harvard, of all places. While he's shown the ability to post big strikeout numbers in the past, the walk rates have always been rough, and Bigge wasn't really on call-up watch in April. On the season, though, the Ivy Leaguer has posted wonderful strikeout and walk numbers. Most notably, his non-competitive pitch rates have plummeted.

Bigge's bread and butter is a heater that touches 100 mph and has a whiff rate you can dream on. For the season, hitters have swung and missed on one out of every three tries against the heater, within the zone. That's elite stuff. Bigge has recently been called up to the parent club, and should make his debut shortly. There's a high-leverage reliever here, as long as he can control the walk rates.

Porter Hodge, RP Chicago Cubs (MLB)
I am keeping Hodge on this list as of now, because he entered the season as a prospect and (unlike Ben Brown) hasn't spent the entire season in the big leagues. I wrote about Hodge in the winter as someone I really liked to break out, and lo and behold, I got one right! I don't always get 'em right, so I've got to celebrate a bit here. 

Thus far on the season, the big righthander has looked phenomenal with the Cubs. He's sporting an ERA below 1.50; he's inducing ground balls at over a 43% clip; he's yet to give up a barrel; he's kept the walk rate to 11.5%; and he's striking out almost a third of the hitters he sees. That's back-end stuff. We're still in the early days of Hodge as an MLB player, as he's still under 15 innings of a sample size. But it's hard to say that many people saw this kind of breakout from the cutter specialist, and it's hard not to get a little excited.

Brandon Birdsell, SP Iowa Cubs (Triple-A)
Birdsell was a good find for the Cubs in the 2022 draft. A fifth-round pick out of Texas Tech who had dealt with some injuries, Birdsell was probably too good to go so low on talent alone. The righty isn't overpowering (with a strikeout rate just over 20%, the punchout isn't in his repertoire right now), but he also walks next-to no one, with a walk rate under 5%. I'd feel a bit better if Birdsell was a ground-ball machine (he's not), but with funky arm action and a lot of strikes being thrown, it's probable that he makes an MLB start in his career, and possibly, many. I keep thinking about how the Cubs have gotten the most out of Javier Assad, and while they're different pitchers who go about things in their own ways, I have some confidence that there's a back-of-the-rotation arm in Birdsell.

With the youngster having recently promoted to Iowa, it'll be interesting to see the Savant data on him, and whether the Cubs try to do some of the seam-shifted wake stuff that they've done with Jameson Taillon and the aforementioned Assad.

Will Sanders, SP, South Bend (High-A)
In many ways, Will Sanders feels like a similar pick to Birdsell: a fourth-round pick who, on talent alone, probably was too good to be picked that late. Sanders didn't have a great end to his career in South Carolina in college, and the Cubs picked up on him. In his draft year, the 4.91 ERA doesn't look great, but a lot of that was issues he had at the start of his time in South Bend. The former Gamecock got rocked in his first two goes, but since then, he has been much better, posting a mid-3s ERA, a strikeout rate over 26% and a walk rate under 10%.

Unlike Birdsell, Sanders is very much a groundball pitcher, so that helps to eliminate runners through ground balls and keeps the ball in the park. Much like Birdsell, though, there's a good chance Sanders makes some starts in his career, though whether it's as organizational depth, or as a fixture in the fourth or fifth spot in a rotation is hard to tell. Either way, he's looked pretty good, and I think there's an MLB future here.

Sam Armstrong, SP, South Bend (High-A)
The Cubs had a pretty solid 2023 draft (just wait, it's not done!) when you're adding the 13th round selection out of Old Dominion on your risers spot! So far, in 62 innings, Armstrong has posted wonderful numbers in South Bend, striking out 24.7% of hitters, walking 7% of them, keeping ground balls over 40% and maintaining solid home-run rates on flies. Armstrong has formed a nice duo with Sanders so far.

While you can point to Armstrong being older than Sanders as a negative, he's also not coming from the SEC, so this is a larger leap for him, as well. He's a bit maxed out on his body, standing at 6'2" and weighing 245 pounds, but he maintains a low- to mid-90s fastball, which is likely enough. Much like the aforementioned former South Carolinian, the upside here is likely more "back end" than "front end", but getting anything out of a 13th rounder is a win. 

Jaxon Wiggins, SP, Myrtle Beach (Low-A)
Wiggins was a divisive pick in 2023, with many fans and pundits on the internet upset at the Cubs for getting a bit "weird" with the pick. Wiggins, whose overall college numbers at Arkansas looked rough, was fresh off Tommy John and hadn't really been seen, outside of some fall action. He was recommended by Ty Nichols, however. We should have known not to doubt the man who also brought in Cade Horton, under similar circumstances. It's only Low-A, but working his way back from surgery, Wiggins has looked awesome, flashing high-90s stuff and eliminating a lot of the walk concerns (so far). I'm not willing to say "all fixed!" there yet--Wiggins is likely too good for Myrtle Beach talent alone--so it'll be worth monitoring how well he progresses when he gets a bump to South Bend, but it's hard to say his arrow is pointing anywhere other than "up" right now.

The Cubs aren't yet a pitching factory on par with the teams who do that best, but they're making progress. As discouraging as the big-league results have been this year, there are good things percolating.

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[Irrelevant Dude]

Speaking of Cubs pitching prospects, do we have any updates on Horton?

[Jason Ross]

24 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Speaking of Cubs pitching prospects, do we have any updates on Horton?

Nothing I can find. I'd guess, just on timelines that he's not super far away from some "throwing on the side" reports to pop up. I'd guess he's in Triple-A action again by early-ish or so August if it was a minor lat strain.

[Jason Ross]

13 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

You may be generously overstating the prowess implied by a 42% rate in High A from a pitcher who has also allowed 7 HRs in 55 IP. It’s worth pointing out Birdsell allowed fewer HRs against High A hitters over more innings, threw more strikes for that matter at the level last year. 

I’m pleasantly surprised by the competence from Armstrong this year. I’ve got what the youths most likely call “mad respeck” for an unheralded guy outpacing his peers, esp in today’s noisy prospect meta, and he seems the top performing 2023 arm in the org so far 

GB% tends to remain across levels, as batted ball profile (GB/FB) tends to have the highest correlation from level to level for a pitcher. This is because it ties to pitch mix; guys who throw ground balls will generally throw ground balls level over level because their pitch mix isn't drastically changing (of course, until a team does something!). A mid 42% GB is pretty good - it's not elite-elite but it's generally upper third of MLB SP's. Higher GB% pitchers tend to be more of a FIP beater profile...so where and when guys throw GB's it's a good thing (usually!). 

The HR's are a different discussion for sure and generally speaks to control; HR's are more likely to be meatballs. If the goal is to compare Will Sanders to perfection, then we're setting the bar too high for fourth round selection. Not to say that Birdsell is perfection, but a sub 4% FB/HR rate in High-A is essentially perfect over 80 IP, too.  It's certainly somewhat of a "polish" for Sanders. If there's a positive, it's that four of his six home runs on the season came in just two of his starts...so while we can't ignore the total number, it's clear that this is more of an "intermittent" issue and less of an "every start" issue. Those are things that aren't so scary and can be ironed out more as we go. I also am not super worried about six home runs over the course of 55 IP. That's not amazing, but it's in the fine category.

With that said, I do like Birdsell just as a prospect more than Sanders. It's not leaps and bounds, but it's a bit. He's at a more advanced level and his funk adds something. I'm not entirely convinced on his whiff numbers yet, but we'll see. This isn't so much an article ranking prospects, just highlighting who I think has improved their stock. Much like the next one will be less about a ranking and those who's stock is down (sometimes for things out of their immediate control like injury!).

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Not the goal, but I do think its fair to see Sanders’ numbers and wonder how there could be an up arrow. He’s walking guys, he gets 

Well, Birdsell gave up four home runs in 80 pitched in South Bend. That's not perfect, but that's pretty close to perfect. Sander's doesn't have a massively inflated HR record for 57 IP. It's not amazing, but is just two home runs more than Sam Armstrong in a sample error difference of innings. So if we're going to give some love to Armstrong, but not Sanders, based on that, it feels...not right. Both made the list for me!

In the end, it's not worth re-litigating what we litigated last night. I know where you sit on Sanders. I'm going to respectfully disagree with you there. You're more than welcome to your stance.

[Jason Ross]

15 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Few things:

1 - I wouldn’t even know massively inflated unless I saw it, and it’s not so important to find a flowery descriptor anyway. He’s giving up HRs, walking guys, and we know 20+ years into DIPS that that’s not what you want to see from pitchers. Throw in that he’s got lots of experience and isn’t young for the level and it’s hard to be impressed

2 - Another way to describe Armstrong’s HR advantage is he’s given up fewer over more innings. He’d also walking way fewer hitters, and not giving up anything meaningful in Ks either. Like there’s clearly a gap in their numbers this year that would explain why one “should” be up and the other not so much 

3 - I *know* I’m welcome to my stance and opinions so long as respectful! Don’t need the heads up everytime! 

Tom, I wasn't being rude to you.. That's my way of saying "This is my stance, and I'm not really going to change it based on the information you've presented, I'm going to be moving on" in as kind of a way as I can via online forum. I'm sorry if you don't like that, I will continue to do that regardless to move the topic to my rear view mirror. It isn't that I'm trying to upset you, just that I've learned there's a point when someone isn't going to change their point on something subjective and I'm not really going to change mine based on that same subjective thing, so I like to move on when we come to that impasse. We all view subjective things in our own light and I'm not one to go back and forth without any real progress being made. 

As of now, I feel exactly there with you and I on the Will Sanders topic.

[Bertz]

Do we have velo on Sanders?  I think I have only seen fairly tepid reports from last year.

I like the statistical profile though.  Good amount of swing and miss, walk were high early but have settled down, and I don't care about HR rate in small samples.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

Do we have velo on Sanders?  I think I have only seen fairly tepid reports from last year.

I like the statistical profile though.  Good amount of swing and miss, walk were high early but have settled down, and I don't care about HR rate in small samples.

So, doing some sleuthing, and this is what I've been able to find: 
1. Draft reports were "93-95 and touching 98" mph. 
2. I can't find anything on twitter I feel comfortable with on the velo. Checked some of the other prospect guys and can't seem to find something, but there's a lot out there and it doesn't mean there isnt!
3. I resorted to searching Will Sanders strikeout videos. Sadly, for this purpose, he tends to strikeout a lot of guys with the breaking ball. Damn! But I did find a video in which the gun in SB was recording 94, which would seem to support pre-draft scouting. Whether that's a full-max-effort pitch or the norm...can't fully say

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Didn’t say you were! I do recognize a polite gfy I’m dug in, see the subjective stuff, but that’s not neither here nor there. Mostly just wanted to remind that I’m aware we can have different opinions in a discussion forum! I’m way more interested in why you view Sanders’ performance favorably than that you view it favorably. Initially it was something unspecified about his last handful starts but it’s evolved to all but two starts :dontknow: 

All good! 

It's a lot of things. It's the last handful (I think he just looks better) but overall, I'm encouraged. Like I said, numbers look pretty good, his walks are on the decline, and to me. the HR's are not an issue. I think he's looked like someone who's about to earn a promotion to Tennessee and for me, that's an arrow up! 

[allen6510w]

Haven't  Connor Noland and Juan Bello also improved their prospect status this summer or does their fringy FBs make them non-prospects at least until they show something in AAA. 

[sneakypower]