Mock Draft v.4.0 (Final Edition): Cubs Add College Bat

[Jeremy Nygaard]

It's Draft Week, and there are lots of rumors out there. Smokescreens? Probably. But here's our (probably) final mock of the season.

Image courtesy of © Scott Kinser-USA TODAY Sports

1. Cleveland Guardians - Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
While I still think Condon is the best prospect available, it does make sense to cut a deal. Wetherholt would bring more savings and maybe even makes more sense. But I’m going to stick with who I believe is the second-best prospect.

2. Cincinnati Reds - Charlie Condon, 3B, Georgia
The fall shouldn’t be a long one for Condon - unless Cincinnati goes with a pitcher - and I really like this fit for the Reds.

3. Colorado Rockies - Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
Maybe I just value lefties too much and that’s why I think Hagan Smith is the way to go, but either way, the Rockies need to take pitching, in my opinion. Burns seems like the industry's consensus pick as the top pitcher. I also think Jac Caglianone seems very Rockies-ish.

4. Oakland Athletics - Jac Caglianone, 1B, Florida
If it weren’t for the injury to Braden Montgomery, I’d have left him here. And I’m not even that concerned about the injury. Cags is scary as a first baseman profile, but I think there's enough athleticism to try him in right field. The bat (and arm) would certainly play.

5. Chicago White Sox - J.J. Wetherholt, SS, West Virginia
It’s possible that Wetherholt goes first and that everyone gets knocked down a rung… which would leave me looking for someone other than Cags for the White Sox. But I think Wetherholt would be a good fit here if he’s available.

6. Kansas City Royals - Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
The Royals should take Smith if he’s available, and introduce him into their bullpen for the stretch run. He’s a long-term top-of-the-rotation pitcher, but that process won’t begin until next season.

7. St. Louis Cardinals - Konnor Griffin, SS, Jackson Prep (Miss.) HS
Would have loved a Smith/Cardinals match, but in this scenario, they’ll settle for the top prep and potentially highest-ceiling prospect available.

8. Los Angeles Angels - James Tibbs, OF, Florida State
I’m going to stick with my first mock draft and pair the Angels with a bat they can be aggressive with and maybe save some money.

9. Pittsburgh Pirates - Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M
Montgomery is better than the ninth-best prospect in this draft, but suffered a season-ending ankle injury that cost him the College World Series showcase opportunity and which will scare a couple of teams away. I love this fit for the Pirates, and he’ll be a part of their current wave soon enough.

10. Washington Nationals - Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard Westlake (Calif.) HS
Still lots of smoke around the Nationals going the prep route.

11. Detroit Tigers - Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro (Ariz.) HS
I always feel like prep pitchers tumble, but I have a hard time dropping Caminiti past this spot.

12. Boston Red Sox - Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee
What a huge climb for Moore, who looked like a late first-round pick a month ago and then tore up the College World Series.

13. San Francisco Giants - Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
I’m not a fan of drafting college first basemen, so that’s probably why I always seem to have Kurtz falling. He would provide pretty good value here, though.

14. Chicago Cubs - Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest
King represents the last of the top tier of hitters and wouldn’t fill a need, but the bat will play, and you can never have enough of them.

15. Seattle Mariners - Theo Gillen, 2B, Westlake (Texas) HS
The Mariners have been hitting (and succeeding with) this demographic hard lately. Might be a tad early, but he’s the next-best prep hitter.

16. Miami Marlins - Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina
This would end a decent-sized fall for one of the top college pitchers. The Marlins needs help and Yesavage could provide it much quicker than going the prep route.

17. Milwaukee Brewers - Cameron Smith, 3B, Florida State
The Brewers dominated the 2023 draft, and this would be a great first move of 2024. The positional fit isn't ideal, but add quality players and figure the rest out later.

18. Tampa Bay Rays - Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky
Waldschmidt has been a solid mover and should hear his name called in the back half of the first round. He's also analytics-friendly, which makes the Rays a good fit.

19. New York Mets - Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina
This is one that feels like a great match. Honeycutt's in-zone swing-and-miss is a turn-off to many teams, but he's an above-average outfielder with speed on the basepaths right now.

20. Toronto Blue Jays - Tommy White, 3B, LSU
White has a bigger name than profile as a professional, but it only takes one team. I also think this is the first spot where we might hear a catcher called.

21. Minnesota Twins - Carson Benge, OF, Oklahoma State
When in doubt, match the Twins with a college hitter. I like Benge (along with Waldschmidt and Smith), but fear he may be off the board. Then it becomes a question of if they dip into the next tier of polished bats, or if they lean into a different demographic and get a college hitter 12 picks later.

22. Baltimore Orioles - Jurrangelo Cijntje, RHP/LHP, Mississippi State
The latest steam has Cijntje solidly in the first round, and the Orioles are already loaded with hitters.

23. Los Angeles Dodgers - Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa
Go ahead and watch the Dodgers develop this flamethrower into a pitcher with a complete arsenal. [Ed. note: Very 2020s Dodgers pitching prospect name, too. River Ryan, Kyle Hurt, Gavin Stone, Peyton Martin, Maddux Bruns, Brody Brecht. You wanna pitch in this organization, buddy, you'd better have a real short name that makes it immediately clear that you're white. We spent $1 billion last winter. We can't be splashing around more money on eight-letter jersey embroidery or ethnic ambiguity.]

24. Atlanta Braves - Braylon Doughty, RHP, Chaparral (Calif.) HS
I’ve heard this pairing quite a bit, even though I don’t think he’s the next-best prep pitcher. So much of where any of them will end up has to do with pre-discussed bonus demands.

25. San Diego Padres - Ryan Sloan, RHP, York Community (Ill.) HS
The Padres love this demographic and have a ton of options to choose from.

26. New York Yankees - William Schmidt, RHP, Catholic (La.) HS
Here’s the run on prep pitchers and it won’t end here either.

27. Philadelphia Phillies - Kash Mayfield, LHP, Elk City (Okla.) HS
Four prep pitchers in a row, to the dismay of teams hoping they’d drop into the comp round.

28. Houston Astros - Billy Amick, 3B, Tennessee
The Astros should be looking to maximize value, and Amick could go earlier. This would be really good value at 28.

29. Arizona Diamondbacks - Kellon Lindsey, SS, Hardee (Fla.) HS
The Diamondbacks kind of have their run of the board now. They’ll get a catcher, but since they are all available, they can take the top prep on the board and get a catcher next.

30. Texas Rangers - Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston State
The Rangers get their pick of the litter with catchers…

31. Arizona Diamondbacks - Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford
..and the Diamondbacks can’t wait til 35 to take theirs.

32. Baltimore Orioles - Caleb Lomavita, C, Cal
After going college hitter with their first pick, here they take the last of the top catchers.

33. Minnesota Twins - Wyatt Sanford, SS, Independence (Tex.) HS
I would lean prep pitcher, but Sanford is a high-ceiling hitter in a draft where there might not be a ton of signable ones. The Twins will take a ton of pitchers after this.

34. Milwaukee Brewers - Joey Oakie, RHP, Ankeny Centennial (Iowa) HS
Really like this fit for the Brewers at 34. A relatively local product and high upside.

35. Arizona Diamondbacks - David Shields, RHP, Mt. Lebanon (Penn.) HS
With their third pick of the draft, the Diamondbacks will hit their third demographic. They’ll have plenty of chances to draft heavily from their missing demo - the college pitchers.

36. Cleveland Guardians - Slade Caldwell, OF, Valley View (Ark.) HS
Caldwell’s name has gotten increasingly popular in regards to matching with a team that has extra money -- and that’s the Guardians. 

37. Pittsburgh Pirates - Bryce Meccage, RHP, Pennington (N.J.) HS
Bryce’s uncle Justin is the Pirates bullpen coach, so here’s to keeping it in the family.

38. Colorado Rockies - Jonathan Santucci, LHP, Duke
Like their first pick, the Rockies need to draft quality pitching as much as possible.

39. Kansas City Royals - Kaelen Culpepper, SS, Kansas State
After going the pitching route with their first pick, the Royals take Culpepper who gets mentioned starting in the 20s.

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Find more draft coverage here:

2024 MLB Draft Position Previews: Prep Pitchers

2024 MLB Draft Position Previews: College Pitchers

2024 MLB Draft Position Previews: First Basemen

2024 MLB Draft Position Previews: Second Basemen

2024 MLB Draft Preview: Midwest Highlights

2024 MLB Draft Position Previews: Third Basemen

2024 MLB Draft Position Previews: Shortstops

2024 MLB Draft Position Previews: Catcher

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[Named After Maddux]

Good mock!

I don’t love Seaver King as a Cubs target personally but I understand the rationale above.

I’d have skipped the editor’s note on the Dodgers pick. I know how it was trying to come off, but respectfully I think it missed the mark.

[CubinNY]

The Cubs are already chock-a-block full of Seaver King types up and down the organization. I hope they have more imagination than that. 

[Tryptamine]

I'd be fairly disappointed with this. I'm not in love with Yesavage or anything, but if Tibbs and Moore are gone, unless you have an under slot agreement, I think you have to take Trey. 

[Outshined_One]

I don't think King matches this FO's profile for college bats in the first round; he feels more like a Hendry Era kind of guy as a toolsy hitter who's rough around the edges.  It feels like the current FO (dating back to Theo) prefers polished college hitters who don't have much swing and miss in their profile.  It's also why, as much as I really want Honeycutt, I don't see him as a realistic pick for them at 14, either.

Granted, the guys available in this scenario are not particularly inspiring.  I'd probably go with Yesavage or an underslot with someone like Malcolm Moore here if I were doing this mock, but neither pick would have me dancing in the streets.

[Tryptamine]

10 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I don't think King matches this FO's profile for college bats in the first round; he feels more like a Hendry Era kind of guy as a toolsy hitter who's rough around the edges.  It feels like the current FO (dating back to Theo) prefers polished college hitters who don't have much swing and miss in their profile.  It's also why, as much as I really want Honeycutt, I don't see him as a realistic pick for them at 14, either.

Granted, the guys available in this scenario are not particularly inspiring.  I'd probably go with Yesavage or an underslot with someone like Malcolm Moore here if I were doing this mock, but neither pick would have me dancing in the streets.

Are you completely out on Cam Smith? 

[Outshined_One]

9 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Are you completely out on Cam Smith? 

Completely out?  Nah.  He's ironed out enough of his chase/swing and miss this season to tamp down concerns about how he'd handle more advanced pitching, plus he also seems like a good bet to stick at 3B.  I think he's solidly in the same tier with Benge and Waldschmidt of college hitters who should be available at 14 and who also seem to fit the Cubs' bill.

[CubinNY]

After the last couple of drafts, I promised myself that I would not be upset no matter who they pick. I'm going to stick with that mantra. They seem to know what they are doing. It's not a start-studded draft this year and they are picking mid-round.  Hopefully whoever they pick can help them be great at some point in the future. 

[Tryptamine]

23 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

After the last couple of drafts, I promised myself that I would not be upset no matter who they pick. I'm going to stick with that mantra. They seem to know what they are doing. It's not a start-studded draft this year and they are picking mid-round.  Hopefully whoever they pick can help them be great at some point in the future. 

Draft day isn't about being rational, it's about hot mostly uneducated takes.

[Jason Ross]

King is...fine? I'm not a big King guy. I can see the athleticism in him, and in this draft, King is probably as good as the next guy. But given the options on the board, I'm going to keep pounding the drum on Ryan Waldschmidt. He reminds me a lot of the "good" version of Andrew Benintendi when he first came up; someone who hits the ball hard, doesn't strike out a lot, has some real athleticism despite playing a corner spot. It might not be the 4.4 fWAR 123 wRC+ year in and out, but I think a "light" version of that is on the cards. 

I know the fanbase is pretty hard in on Yesevage...I'm pretty luke warm there. It's not that he's a bad pitcher or a bad pick, but he feels like the standard 10-20 draft-range-college-arm that you can find most drafts; he's solid, has some good stuff with maybe one pitch that pops more than others. There's a solid mid-rotation arm with a little projection that maybe you squeeze the 98% out of him and he's a solid #2...but I'm just not overly enthralled here, either. If it's Yesavage, I won't have a single bone to pick...he's a good prospect in this draft, at this pick. But he's not my pick, either. Give me a college bat, then go arm-arm-arm; this is such a middling draft overall that I think the value is in picking a solid-ish bat, saving some slot and then grabbing upside arms where and when you can.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I just find it hard to imagine this draft brass would pass on Yesavage for King. Now Cam Smith, Waldschmidt or an underslot option, I could see.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

I just find it hard to imagine this draft brass would pass on Yesavage for King. Now Cam Smith, Waldschmidt or an underslot option, I could see.

Same. King has some aspects that I think the Cubs like, but his overall profile has him in the same category (for different reasons) as I have someone like Vance Honeycutt - they feel like un-Cub draft picks. At least under Kantrovitz. Seaver King feels like someone the Cubs would draft under Wilkin. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

King is the one guy I would probably be least enthused about among the college bats.  That said, the corollary last year pre-draft probably would've been Jacob Wilson(IIRC there were several 'thank you Oakland' posts when he was drafted), and he has a .414/.435/.635 line split across A+, AA, and AAA(including .461./494./731 in AA/AAA!), so a good reminder that who knows when it comes to these things.

[Tryptamine]

24 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

King is the one guy I would probably be least enthused about among the college bats.  That said, the corollary last year pre-draft probably would've been Jacob Wilson(IIRC there were several 'thank you Oakland' posts when he was drafted), and he has a .414/.435/.635 line split across A+, AA, and AAA(including .461./494./731 in AA/AAA!), so a good reminder that who knows when it comes to these things.

I thought it was Nolan Schanuel and Jacob Berry the year prior that people were relieved the Cubs weren't in on, but maybe Wilson was involved too. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

I thought it was Nolan Schanuel and Jacob Berry the year prior that people were relieved the Cubs weren't in on, but maybe Wilson was involved too. 

Berry was also one where a number of people were skeptical, though I think Schanuel(also a super fast riser!) wasn't as universally missed.  Wilson didn't get discussed as much as a Berry, mostly because basically everyone had a 'please no' reaction, and there also wasn't much buzz or mock activity connecting him to the Cubs, unlike Berry/Schanuel

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Obviously the board  - and who's left on it - plays the biggest part in determining who to draft. Yesavage and King both seem to represent the *kinda* bottom of that tier on a national level. 

The Cubs (with the exception of Horton, which was earlier and pre-arranged) have drafted almost exclusively from "the board" in the last four years - 

Ed Howard drafted 16th, ranked 15th, signed for slot.

Jordan Wicks drafted 21st, ranked 16th, signed for slot.

(Cade Horton and Jackson Ferris was the equivalent of a trade down/trade up by getting the 19th and 24th ranked players for essentially slot -- spent $7.46m of a combined $7.37m available.)

Matt Shaw drafted 13th, ranked 16th, signed for slot.

The Cubs aren't able to redo what they did in 2022. But what they are going to do seems pretty straightforward. Both King and Yesavage fit the mold. Jamie's Consensus Board has Yesavage 11th and King 12th with Tibbs (then a gap) and Smith and Benge after that. Smart money would suggest the Cubs select one from that group. No funny business; just taking the top college guy from their board.