Jon Heyman Connects Cubs To Verlander

[Brandon Glick]

MLB Insider Jon Heyman said that the Houston Astros, currently sporting a 20-25 record and third in the AL Central, could begin selling off some of their shorter-term pieces in the coming months if they don’t turn things around quickly. The most notable player he mentioned is starting pitcher Justin Verlander, whom he connected directly to the Cubs. 

Verlander, 41, has a 3.38 ERA in 29 and ⅓ innings this season. He’s currently in the final year of a two-year, $86 million pact he originally signed with the New York Mets, which could mean the Astros have to eat some money in order to move him (especially to a team that is trying to avoid the luxury tax, like the Cubs). The veteran starter is just two years removed from winning his third AL Cy Young Award in 2022, when he led the junior circuit in wins (18), ERA (1.75), ERA+ (218), WHIP (0.829), and hits allowed per nine innings (6.0).

Notably, Verlander’s strikeout rate has plummeted over the last couple of seasons, dropping from 9.5 K/9 in 2022 to just 7.1 K/9 in 2024. Still, he remains a wildly effective starting pitcher who is capable of gobbling up innings. Most Cubs fans will remember the team’s failed pursuit of Verlander in 2017, when the ace pitcher badly wanted to go to Chicago once the Detroit Tigers placed him on (the since defunct) tradeable waivers in August. Instead, the Cubs opted against trading what little talent remained in their farm system, and Verlander was sent to the Astros, whom he won two World Series titles with.

The Cubs have been pounded with injuries this season at every position, though their rotation depth has been pushed to the extreme already. All of Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, Jordan Wicks, Kyle Hendricks, and Drew Smyly have been on the Injured List at some point or another this season, and the Cubs have had to rely heavily on the arms of Shota Imanaga and Javier Assad. Nevertheless, the Cubs rank 12th in the MLB in ERA despite an abysmal performance from the bullpen, and that’s thanks to the terrific work of players like Imanaga, Assad, Ben Brown, and Hayden Wesneski.

Trading for a 41-year-old pitcher is way outside of Jed Hoyer’s wheelhouse, though Verlander is only a (expensive) rental. Would he be willing to pay the prospect cost for someone who might stretch the budget and not fill the team’s biggest area of need (the relief corps)? With Cade Horton possibly on the way soon, it’s hard to imagine the Cubs really being in deep on Verlander.

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[ToolDRT]

I’d be interested in that. Is this the last year of his deal? 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Does Verlander make the rotation in a playoff series with his performance so far this year?  Maybe if Steele is truly busted or there's further injuries, but he's definitely not starting multiple playoff games and you can make the argument he's somewhere between 3rd and 6th in the current pecking order.  Don't see much point unless his performance picks up or the status quo of the rotation changes fairly significantly, and that's before getting to the opportunity cost with his big salary number(even paid down by the Mets & Astros).

[LBiittner]

Is Heyman a trustable source or just a rumor monger?

[UMFan83]

Obviously not at all against trading for good players but feel like they should focus on areas of need unless they felt like someone like Wicks can be very effective out of the bullpen. 

[CubinNY]

Alonso is having a down season so far and I expect the contract situation is playing into that a bit. I’d rather see the Cubs try to get some slugging into the lineup if they’re going to make a blockbuster 

[Rcal10]

Aren’t the Mets paying the contract this year? I thought when he was traded last year in order for the Mets to get a decent prospect they took Verlander’s salary. If the Astros traded him would his salary still be the responsibility of the Mets? 

[Bertz]

He's coming off an injury so I'd give him a little more time to go on a heater but Verlander is looking pretty cooked.

I do think rotation is an underrated need at the deadline.  None of the youths outside of Assad and Wesneski can reasonably be expected to give you 150 innings this year.  Between normal injuries, guys hitting inning caps, and guys losing effectiveness as they approach inning caps, May's rotation surplus may be thinned out enough to be a problem come August/September.

[NorthsideAvenger]

Depending on what HOU wants for Verlander, I'm all for it. JV feels like the type of guy who can really help HW Brown and the other young arms.

[Stratos]

12 hours ago, LBiittner said:

Is Heyman a trustable source or just a rumor monger?

If you listen to his comments he's totally just speculating here, he has no info on this whatsoever.  He's assuming IF the Astros are still struggling closer to the deadline they MIGHT trade Verlander who has a NTC but MIGHT be interested in a team like the Cubs.  Fun to discuss but it's a nothingburger.

Edited May 19, 2024 by Stratos

[Rcal10]

10 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’m choosing to take out of this rumor that:

- Cubs are star shopping

- Cubs are (wisely) looking for a SP. Right team, but wrong player? Framber Valdez seems a more obvious fit rn

I think they will be shoppers. But I don’t expect that high end of shopping. More likely mid range like shopping for a Honda instead of a Mercedes IMO. Might also be someone on his last year of his contract.  But we will see. I do think they will be somewhat aggressive, not dumpster dive. But not top of the line either. 

[Rcal10]

20 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’m of the mind that we’re in a post-superstar era already (“everyone” obvious is under contract except Soto) so “star shopping” is somewhat relative. Now that the Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, Yamamoto crowd are through, Cubs skipping because there’s never any real urgency to do anything for this fanbase besides promise a Future and say there’s prospects with upside, the next gen is much more the Cubs speed (already cheaper and fairly easily argued as overrated or not good or imperfect value etc etc). 
 

OTOH this is like the 6th year in a row I guess they’re star shopping. OTOOH “stars” becoming available now are like Framber Valdez, Brady Singer, Luis Robert, Vlad Jr, Kyle Tucker, Pete Alonso who just don’t have the earning potential of the previous gen. They’re only getting cheaper, easier turn over too just like employees of the non-sports world

Edit: think of how famous and talented Roki Sasaki is, likely to be posted btw ages 23-25. What are the real chances this pitcher with a high of 129 IP in the NPB does as well as Yamamoto in MLB FA? Yeah they’ll make a show of it and pump up the nominal value but real dollars he’ll be cheaper than Yamamoto in FA who was cheaper than Cole in FA. That’s Future 2.0, everything the two rebuilds spanning ten years was moving towards and for. Same thing with Murakami, not even in question whether he’ll be cheaper than say Devers 

 

tl;dr I imagine we’re moving towards a window where the Cubs are routinely in on the best players because the best has never been cheaper, easier to dismiss and disparage. 

I am talking specifically about this trade deadline. I don’t see the  trading for Vlad, Tucker, Valdez or Robert. Singer is doubtful as well. Maybe Alonso, but the Mets will want a lot from the Cubs. So I doubt that happens either. I am thinking more like pitchers on their last year for a lower end or at best top 10-15 prospect in the system. I just don’t see someone like Cease, Luzardo, or Valdez coming here mid season. I think, at best it will either be someone like a Verlander(because at $41M and 41 years old he shouldn’t cost much) or a MOR sort of pitcher on his last months, or at best, last 1.5 years of his contract. As for bats I think whoever it will be will be closer to Candelario than Tucker. 

[Rex Buckingham]

I'll take him if we can send Hendricks the other way

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

I'll take him if we can send Hendricks the other way

Who?

[Rex Buckingham]

8 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Who?

Verlander 

[BKHoo]

On 5/18/2024 at 11:52 AM, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Does Verlander make the rotation in a playoff series with his performance so far this year?  Maybe if Steele is truly busted or there's further injuries, but he's definitely not starting multiple playoff games and you can make the argument he's somewhere between 3rd and 6th in the current pecking order.  Don't see much point unless his performance picks up or the status quo of the rotation changes fairly significantly, and that's before getting to the opportunity cost with his big salary number(even paid down by the Mets & Astros).

Yes he does. He has been lights out in the playoffs during his career. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 hours ago, BKHoo said:

Yes he does. He has been lights out in the playoffs during his career. 

He's 41, has lost a tick off his fastball this year, and has a 4.46 playoff ERA since the pandemic.  The version of Verlander you associate with postseason dominance doesn't exist anymore.

[NorthsideAvenger]

If the Cubs are convinced they can coax what little gas JV has left out of him and the Cubs don't give up anything substantial, then sure.

Edited June 2, 2024 by NorthsideAvenger