Minor League Discussion & Box, 4-19-24

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scheduled Game (Central Time):

Iowa vs. Louisville (game one), 4:30 pm
Iowa vs. Louisville (game two), TBD
Tennessee vs. Montgomery, 6:00 pm
South Bend at Beloit, 6:35 pm
Myrtle Beach vs. Kannapolis, 6:05 pm

Probable Starters:

Tennessee: RHP Matt Thompson (3 IP, 3.00 ERA, 6.74 FIP, 6 K, 3 BB)
South Bend: LHP Drew Gray (6 IP, 1.50 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 10 K, 6 BB)
Myrtle Beach: LHP Marino Santy (6 IP, 6.00 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 6 K, 5 BB)

[spaincubsfan]

Curious question for 1908 & the minor league crowd. Will Horton bump up to AAA or go directly to the show?

I mean if he dominates for the next 2 months where do you project him landing by the end of June? 

[CubinNY]

5 hours ago, spaincubsfan said:

Curious question for 1908 & the minor league crowd. Will Horton bump up to AAA or go directly to the show?

I mean if he dominates for the next 2 months where do you project him landing by the end of June? 

They want to limit his innings. Baring something really unexpected happening, he will probably be up in June or July

[Jason Ross]

5 hours ago, spaincubsfan said:

Curious question for 1908 & the minor league crowd. Will Horton bump up to AAA or go directly to the show?

I mean if he dominates for the next 2 months where do you project him landing by the end of June? 

I'm going to guess he'll get some time in Iowa, but I'm not 100% sure it's necessary, either. I don't think he's got much more to do in Double-A. He's got 8 appearances and 35 innings at the level. He's given up just five earned runs in 35 innings. He's struck out 40 hitters and walked 12. His ERA is under 1.30. So far in 2023 he's improved his walk rate, his xFIP, his K rate, his BABIP against...it's 8 innings but the point remains; I think he's done with Double-A at this point and I don't expect the Cubs to keep him there much longer. 

He probably won't be in Chicago by May 1st, but he'll probably be in Iowa. I'd say any time after June 1st is prime Horton time. I'd expect if an injury would occur and a rotation spot open between now and then, Brown and Wesneski would get cracks. After June 1st...Horton likely jumps the later and maybe the former too if he's settled in the pen. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Vazquez numbers are kind of awesome. I am wondering if this dude will get a shot in Chicago or dangled as trade bait. Could he usurp Nico? Would they consider playing him at 3B? He's supposed to have one of the best gloves in the org right?

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Vazquez numbers are kind of awesome. I am wondering if this dude will get a shot in Chicago or dangled as trade bait. Could he usurp Nico? Would they consider playing him at 3B? He's supposed to have one of the best gloves in the org right?

He's having a great year but I don't think he's got any legitimate shot to take a position in Chicago long term. The Cubs are not going to to be looking to replace Hoerner regardless of the rough start; they just signed him to an extension and clearly think highly of him. Maybe he'll be given a shot at third base if the Cubs decide to cancel the Morel-experience, but probably by that point, Matt Shaw will have rocketed up to a point where he's on the precipice himself. 

Vazqauez reminds me of Joey Ortiz recently with Baltimore. A prospect  who found his footing (and additional power) a little later than others, who got squeezed out by the likes of Henderson, Holiday, and Westburg. He feels like someone who will eventually be used in a trade. Which is free money either way...Baltimore came away with Corbin Burnes because of the breakout. The Cubs could come away with a similarly interesting player.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think Brown's progression last year is a good barometer for when Horton might see Iowa.  Brown made 4 starts in Tennessee and was moved to Iowa at the start of May, which feels like the path that Horton is on.  Once in Iowa though I think all bets are off depending on MLB team needs and how quickly he starts excelling at that level.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I think Brown's progression last year is a good barometer for when Horton might see Iowa.  Brown made 4 starts in Tennessee and was moved to Iowa at the start of May, which feels like the path that Horton is on.  Once in Iowa though I think all bets are off depending on MLB team needs and how quickly he starts excelling at that level.

To be fair, it felt more imperative to get Brown to AAA as soon as possible because of the AA ball last year.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

7 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

To be fair, it felt more imperative to get Brown to AAA as soon as possible because of the AA ball last year.

Maybe, but even without the ball Horton has basically been just as dominant so far.

[spaincubsfan]

3 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'm going to guess he'll get some time in Iowa, but I'm not 100% sure it's necessary, either. I don't think he's got much more to do in Double-A. He's got 8 appearances and 35 innings at the level. He's given up just five earned runs in 35 innings. He's struck out 40 hitters and walked 12. His ERA is under 1.30. So far in 2023 he's improved his walk rate, his xFIP, his K rate, his BABIP against...it's 8 innings but the point remains; I think he's done with Double-A at this point and I don't expect the Cubs to keep him there much longer. 

He probably won't be in Chicago by May 1st, but he'll probably be in Iowa. I'd say any time after June 1st is prime Horton time. I'd expect if an injury would occur and a rotation spot open between now and then, Brown and Wesneski would get cracks. After June 1st...Horton likely jumps the later and maybe the former too if he's settled in the pen. 

He will probably be on an innings limit this year to boot. All in all, the future is really bright with the farm we have. I expect this year's draft should net us another good pitching prospect or 2.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Two doubles for PCA tonight.

This is the first:

The second was 101.8 mph off the bat: 

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Mulé’s first outing was only 1 inning so him getting stretched out a bit is fun:

 

[CubinNY]

The depth of talent in the system is really impressive 

[craig]

PCA rolling the 23/3 K/BB ratio thus far.  Lots of pitchers would love to sustain ratios like that!

.247 OBP, nothing particular fluky given his pretty normal BABIP.  

As wonderful as PCA's defense is, it's going to be tough to become a big-league starter if he can't get his OBP up at least near .300.  Even Baez stayed north of .300 before Covid summer and trade season.  

Long season, of course, so reversion-to-mean has to somehow improve 32%/4% K/BB profile.  At least, I hope so.....