Article: Chicago Cubs Top Prospect Rankings, 2024 Preseason: #1-5

[Jason Ross]

We're on the final part of our roundtable of top Cubs prospect rankings, and we've already had a few surprises. Will there be a surprise at the number one spot? 

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

After a solid roundtable, we're finally on the most exciting part: our final five rankings. With a few surprises and differences along the way, do @Josh Illes or I have any final surprises for you? Ensure you're caught up by reading our first three parts before you look at part four, so you're not missing anything!

Cubs Prospects 16-20
Cubs Prospects 11-15
Cubs Prospects 6-10

Jason's 5th Ranked Prospect: Owen Caissie, RF/1B/DH
You have no idea how much it pains me to put Owen Caissie fifth and not higher, but that reflects the system and not how I feel about the Canadian. Caissie has many of the makings of an elite power prospect: his exit velocities are already good enough to rank at the top of MLB (not just minor league) lists. He’s got the body and the swing, as well, to go with the exit velocities to generate 30, 35, or even 40+ home run power down the road. It’s easy to point to Caissie’s strikeout rate when discussing flaws in his game. Still, I think these are generally overblown, as he had to deal with being one of the youngest players in the entire system and the pre-tacked baseball the Southern League introduced in the first half of the 2024 season. A deeper dive does suggest Caissie is likely a platoon player down the road. Still, it also shows that against RHP and with a regular baseball, Caissie doesn’t have strikeout issues everywhere, finishing the second half with an impressive 24 K% against right-handed pitchers. This isn't a bad outcome, with the league increasingly leaning into platoons. Where Caissie eventually settles is a good question: he’s made real improvements in the right field. However, combining other prospects and his body may eventually cause him to shift to a first base or a designated hitter role. But here’s the thing…I’m not sure I care. This is what elite power prospects look like, and the Cubs haven’t had a pure masher like this come through the system in nearly a decade. I’m excited to see the Big Red Machine debut, which could come as soon as August of 2024, though I think 2025 is a more conservative and likely timeline.

Josh's 5th Ranked Prospect: Michael Busch, INF
There are questions about Michael Busch. Can he play third? Can he play second? Can he play first? Will he prefer an Italian Beef over a French Dip? And so on. But one thing about Michael Busch that is not in question is that he can hit. He can hit. He can hit for both average and power. The 26-year-old Busch was acquired by the Cubs last month and is expected to open the 2024 season in Chicago as either the Opening Day first baseman or DH. Up until now, he has only had a cup of coffee in the Majors with the Dodgers, having been chiefly blocked at the major league level by Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, and all the other all-stars the Dodgers have on their roster. With the Cubs, he will finally get to prove he belongs. Drafted in 2019 out of North Carolina, he played almost exclusively at first for the Tar Heels, but to be fair to Busch, he was a shortstop in high school and was expected to play shortstop at UNC eventually.

The main reason that didn’t happen is because, as a freshman, he could hit the ball so well that the coaching staff had to find a place for him to play, and that place at that time was first. So play there, he did. And he hit. And they kept him there, and he thrived. And to be fair, he doesn’t profile as a shortstop, so there is something to be said for the move to first base being the correct one. However, he still displays much of that athleticism that made him a top-ranked high school shortstop in Minnesota, and even as late as last season, there were a lot of Dodgers prospect rankers who believed he could, and maybe should, be given a chance at the hot corner. I’m not sure if he will get that chance now that he’s moved to the Cubs, but I do know that the Cubs have many questions regarding who will fill that position this season, so maybe Busch will end up providing an answer. 

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Jason's 4th Ranked Prospect: Michael Busch, 1B/2B/3B
I like Michael Busch, and multiple industry rankings do, too (as Busch ranked in the top 50 for both MLB.com Pipeline and Baseball America). He will be an excellent major-league hitter after getting more and more into the weeds. While he struggled in his initial callup, much like Matt Mervis, who I ranked much lower, Busch’s processes are much better than Mervis's, leading me to be much more confident. With contact rates above 80% and a very discerning eye, the former Dodger does things right at the plate. Even though he struggled at times in 2022 against velocity, by 2023, the lefty seemingly got much better against these pitches at the Triple-A level. We know contact rate correlates highly to MLB success (and correlates highly from Triple A to MLB), which again fills me with confidence about his ability to hit at the highest level. I think it's unlikely that Busch ever establishes himself as a long-term third baseman due to his defensive limitations, but the Cubs worked wonders with Nick Madrigal. So, I can’t entirely discount that. Even if he’s just a first baseman, there’s a ton to like and think he’s capable of being a 120+ wRC+ hitter. It was a steep price to pay, Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope, to acquire the first baseman, but I think it’ll work out. 

Josh's 4th Ranked Prospect: Kevin Alcantara, OF
I can’t decide if my favorite thing about Alcantara is his nickname (The Jaguar) or if it’s the first player I ever saw him compared to (Darryl Strawberry). Eventually, I assume, my favorite thing about him will be the sight of him crushing opposite-field home runs at Wrigley Field, but for now, I’ll call it a tie. The Cubs have pretty clear top 3 prospects, so this spot at number four is mostly a ceiling play for me, and I like Alcantara’s ceiling. He is a plus field, plus arm, plus hit tool, plus power, and speed. In other words, he has all five tools. That’s the ceiling, and from there, the questions are about the likelihood that he can become a five-tool player at the MLB level. He still has some work to do to get there. Last season saw him hold his own with moments of dominance at High A as a 20/21-year-old before getting a late-season call-up to Double-A Tennessee. This year, he will likely be with the Smokies all season, and it will be interesting to see what struggles, if any, he has. He will probably strike out a lot. He has at every level so far. He sits dead red at the plate and likes to lay off anything off-speed, so if the Southern League pitchers decide to beat him with breaking balls, he will need to adjust. If he makes that adjustment, he will be fine; if he doesn’t make it, he won’t be ranked this high at this time next year. It’s as simple as that.

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Jason's 3rd Ranked Prospect: Matt Shaw, INF
Matt Shaw was different from the guy I was most excited about heading into the 2023 draft, but after some deep dives, I got it. I preferred the Arizona Diamondbacks selection of Tommy Troy in the category of “undersized infield prospect with power” at the time of the draft, but I’m willing to admit…I think I got these guys flip-flopped and probably would instead take Shaw. Shaw came out on fire last year, blasting through South Bend and landing with the Smokies for their playoff run. Shaw will likely see Iowa sooner rather than later as a prospect who will continue to move fast. His biggest question will be his hyper-aggressive approach at the plate, but Shaw boasts plus-contact and plus-power to go with the aggressive approach. Shaw has multiple “swings” with a minor leg kick with two strikes, which should help keep the K’s down even if the aggressive approach is never fully remedied. Many have suggested that his path to MLB lies at second base (even Shaw compared himself to Dustin Pedroia in a post-draft interview). Still, the former Terrapin has spent the offseason primarily working at third base. Shaw doesn’t have the best arm, but the Cubs have an organizational need, as of writing this article, for the position in the long term. It may be an internal battle between BJ Murray and Shaw to claim the long-term position. Industry and pedigree give Shaw the inside edge here (if he can answer the questions about arm strength), but there’s no guarantee he’s the winner or can even overtake Murray (who should start a level higher in 2024) on the way to Wrigley. That said, Shaw already looks like a “win” of a draft pick early.

Josh's 3rd Ranked Prospect: Matt Shaw, INF
Some pretty clear themes emerge when you dive deep into the scouting reports on Shaw, where words like “competitive,” “aggressive,” “determined,” and “underdog” litter the pages. The former collegiate shortstop is now a promising third base prospect in the minor leagues for the Cubs after they took him in the first round of last year’s draft. At 5’11” and 185 pounds, Shaw isn’t technically undersized to play the hot corner, but he may need every single one of those attributes above to play there at an exceptional level. He had an exceptional career at Maryland, breaking the school record for home runs as a sophomore in 2022, hitting 22. As a junior, he broke his record this past season, mashing 24 long balls. He played well during the college season and even better in the Cape Cod League. He hit to the tune of a slash line of .360/.432/.574, along with ten doubles, two triples, five home runs, and 21 stolen bases in just 36 games with the Bourne Braves in the summer of 2022. That performance led to him being named the Cape Cod Summer Player of the Year and vaulted him up draft boards heading into 2023. Scouts are somewhat mixed on his ultimate position defensively. The questions surrounding his arm at shortstop had more to do with the mechanics of his arm slot than with actual arm strength, so the move to third makes sense, as a slightly slower transfer coupled with a strong arm will still play at third. That said, I’m not sure any infield position has been completely ruled out, and it will be interesting to see what Craig Counsell does with him in the spring, as the club has announced that Shaw received a non-roster invite to Spring Training.

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Jason's 2nd Ranked Prospect: Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF
Before you think it: this isn’t shiny-new-toy-syndrome or prospect fatigue…I was considering this as far back as July of 2023. That’s not an indictment of PCA, but just how impressed I am with Cade Horton. But this isn’t about Cade; this is about Pete, and I think we need to remember just how good of a prospect Crow-Armstrong is. He’s a legitimate 80-grade glove, a 75 or 80-grade runner, and has 20 home run power. I remain concerned with his plate approach, as I find him to be hyper-aggressive and in the wrong way. The good news is that he’s shown the ability to grow and learn: the Cubs entirely revamped his swing, and he took to it like a fish in water, so his ability to learn from a rough first call up with the Cubs is very possible.

What’s more concerning than the short stint in the bigs was his 67% contact rate in his first go in Triple-A. I hope that PCA can take some lumps and learn how to pick out better pitches to swing at. He's a freak of an athlete. Even if he can’t entirely revamp the plate approach, there’s an accessible two-win floor with his speed, defense, and power. It might not always be pretty, but he’d be a helpful player at a premium position. However, if he can work on the approach, there’s still a significant upside. If that takes, there’s a better version of someone like Javier Baez here, and the lefty would be a legitimate threat to break five wins in a few seasons. Whether or not he gets there, PCA will likely find his way to Chicago early in the 2024 season. While the Cubs still may end up adding Cody Bellinger into the mix, there remains an obvious path for him to see tons of plate appearances in Chicago. 

Josh's 2nd Ranked Prospect: Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF
The prospect ranks love PCA. Fangraphs has him ranked 14th overall. Keith Law has him ranked 18th at The Athletic. Baseball Prospectus has him ranked 20th. MLB Pipeline has him 16th. The consensus ranking among all prospects in baseball has PCA somewhere around 15th overall. That seems right, although I may have him closer to the top 10 if I did an overall ranking. Every one of those sites also has him ranked as the top prospect in the Cubs system, which I'm afraid I have to disagree with. I have him at number two, which has nothing to do with PCA. I like someone else even more.

When PCA made his MLB debut in September last year, it culminated everything we have seen him do in the Cubs organization since they traded Javy Baez and Trevor Williams for him at the trade deadline 2021. We have seen him play excellent defense in center field. We have seen him steal bases. We have seen his rapid left-handed bat spray balls all over the field. The fact that he was mainly unable to replicate any of these things in Chicago over the last month of the season is irrelevant to me. I put almost all of that on David Ross. Ross showed time and time again that his flaw as a manager was helping young players adjust to the big leagues, but what he did in September with PCA, Luke Little, and Alexander Canario was next-level bad. I haven’t adjusted PCA’s potential ceiling based on that limited sample size. If anything, I think he can take that experience and learn something from it. I think he should be given the starting center fielder job on day one of the 2024 season, and he won’t give it back for a long, long time.

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Jason's 1st Ranked Prospect: Cade Horton, SP
I just really like Cade Horton, guilty as charged. I’ve liked him for a while, and I’m finally willing to say he’s the best prospect in the Cubs' system. We talk a lot about the floor from Pete Crow-Armstrong, but I think we should probably mention the floor of Cade Horton, too. Barring a significant arm injury, Horton’s fastball/slider combination would lead you to believe his worst-case outcome is a leverage reliever, and while this isn’t as sexy as “ace starting pitcher,” that isn’t far off from “speed and defense center fielder,” which is the floor we’ve given PCA. I’m willing to rank Horton above Crow-Armstrong because I feel more confident about the former reaching his 90/95% outcome now than the latter. Horton hasn’t had a chance to throw at Triple A, but his biggest hurdles were developing the changeup and his health, and I think he’s further along those changes than Crow-Armstrong is in developing and maturing his plate approach. If it feels pedantic or shaving hairs…it is…but that’s what you have to do with rankings. Indeed, they're more like a 1a and 1b ranking than anything, but I’m giving the nod to Horton for this exercise. Horton has an actual ace upside, and I love watching him work. There’s a bit of an attitude he carries himself with that you don’t see often; it can lead to some flaws where he tries to overpower hitters with his fastball (a bit of polish I’d like to see him work on), but it also makes him…just fun. With the burgeoning changeup, Horton has almost everything you could ask from a starting pitching prospect. I’m excited about many things in 2024, but Cade Horton’s first start might be the thing I’m most excited about.

Josh's 1st Ranked Prospect: Cade Horton, SP
When I look at Cade Horton, I see an ace. He’s the best Cubs pitching prospect since Mark Prior.  Many folks have said both of those things; I'm not the first, but whenever I hear that, my mind immediately goes to the fact that if that is true, then Horton is the best prospect in the system. Granted, PCA is very, very good. His ceiling is a perennial All-Star center fielder, but Horton has the potential to be more than that, and he has quickly shown that his ceiling is very much within reach. When the Cubs drafted him with the 7th overall pick in the 2022 draft, it was seen as a bit of a reach. He had missed all of his freshman season at Oklahoma with Tommy John surgery and had only pitched a little in 2022. But that minor pitching he did was on a vast stage, namely the College World Series, where he struck out 13 without walking anyone in 7 ⅓ innings of the title game. It has quickly become apparent that his success in that game was no fluke as he has flown through the Cubs system in just one year, reaching Double A by the end of last season without so much a stumble. His stuff is electric. He has a plus fastball with good movement that sits around 95 mph but can touch 98. His slider is downright nasty at around 86 mph with a hard break, a pitch that he is unafraid to throw in or out of the zone. He also throws an average curve and changeup, either of which should be capable of being developed into a quality third pitch in his arsenal. In my mind, Horton is precisely what this Cubs pitching staff needs to compete right away, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he were sitting at the top of the rotation as early as the end of this season, leading them in the playoffs.

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Are you surprised that we both have Horton as our number 1 prospect? Do you think we're seeing prospect fatigue? Do you agree or disagree with us? Please drop us a comment below to let us know how we did!

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[JunkyardWalrus]

Thank you both for doing this. Great reads!

[Jason Ross]

Really appreciate it! It was a lot of fun to do with Josh. Look forward to doing it again.

[John Heighway]

Outstanding read! Really appreciate the in-depth analysis and work done!

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 hours ago, John Heighway said:

Outstanding read! Really appreciate the in-depth analysis and work done!

Welcome to North Side Baseball!

[Jason Ross]

8 hours ago, John Heighway said:

Outstanding read! Really appreciate the in-depth analysis and work done!

Really appreciate it! Me and @Josh Illes had a real fun time doing this.