Article: Chicago Cubs 2024 Spring Training Position Battles: The 5th Starter

[Brandon Glick]

After some offseason shuffling in the rotation, the Chicago Cubs are set to have a fierce and lengthy spring training battle for the fifth starter job.

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

 

As things currently stand, there are four Cubs who are locked into their places in the rotation following their 2023 seasons: 

• Justin Steele (2023 stats - 30 GS, 173.1 IP, 3.06 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 176 SO, 3.8 WAR)

• Kyle Hendricks (2023 stats - 24 GS, 137.0 IP, 3.74 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 93 SO, 1.5 WAR)

• Jameson Taillon (2023 stats - 29 GS, 154.1 IP, 4.84 ERA, 4.61 FIP, 140 SO, -0.1 WAR)

• Shota Imanaga (2023 stats, in Japan - 24 GS, 159 IP, 2.66 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 188 SO)

Behind them are a bevy of options, each of whom bring different pedigrees and repertoires to the table. Though each pitcher will likely have to take a start or two in 2024 (a full, 162 game season is often replete with injuries and fatigue), there will be one pitcher who earns the full-time starting gig out of spring training. 

The Favorite
Javier Assad: 2023 stats - 32 G (10 GS), 109.1 IP, 3.05 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 94 SO, 2.3 WAR
2024 Projections: ZiPS - 17 GS, 114.1 IP, 4.33 ERA, 4.73 FIP, 91 SO, 0.9 WAR
PECOTA - 15 GS, 95 IP, 4.83 ERA, 5.02 DRA, 73 SO, 0.4 WARP

It’s time to acknowledge the brilliant season Javier Assad had. North Side Baseball’s Cubs Rookie of the Year in 2023, Assad pitched brilliantly while filling in for both Keegan Thompson (injuries, ineffectiveness) and Marcus Stroman (injury) in the bullpen and rotation, respectively. He gets by on a deep arsenal, as he threw six different pitches last year at least 65 times each.

All of those pitches had different use cases, as he threw the slider almost exclusively to righties (to the tune of a 44.9% whiff rate) and the changeup exclusively to lefties. He also has three distinct fastballs. The four-seamer is primarily used on lefties (72.5% of the ones he threw last year were to them); the sinker is reserved for righties (68.2%) and the cutter has a nearly even split. Those three pitches all average between 89 and 93 miles per hour, with spin rates ranging from 1900 to 2100 revolutions per minute.

Assad really improved his batted-ball profile last year, increasing his groundball rate (41.4% in 2022 to 47.3% in 2023), pulled ball percentage (40.5% to 30.9%) and weak contact rate (5.2% to 7.1%), all of which helped offset a spike in barrels surrendered (5.2% to 9.0%). If he can keep his pitch mix diverse and play to the strengths of the Cubs’ defense (up the middle, in the infield), Assad should have the fast track to being the fifth starter out of camp.

The Sleeper
Jordan Wicks: 2023 stats - 7 G (7 GS), 34.2 IP, 4.41 ERA, 4.70 FIP, 24 SO, 0.3 WAR
2024 Projections: ZiPS - 25 GS, 110.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 94 SO, 1.3 WAR
PECOTA - 19 GS, 81 IP, 4.85 ERA, 5.04 DRA, 67 SO, 0.4 WARP

Wicks is the prospect of the group, still maintaining his rookie eligibility heading into 2024. The relatively soft-tossing lefty has a devastating changeup-curveball combination that enabled him to fill in admirably down the stretch (during a playoff push) last season, and his six-pitch repertoire produced three pitches with an expected batting average below .225: the changeup (.212 xBA), the sinker (.224) and the curveball (.106). 

In his September cup of coffee, Wicks’s average exit velocity (88.1 mph), walk rate (7.5%), barrel percentage (6.3%), hard-hit percentage (33%), and groundball rate (50%) all would have been well-above average had he faced enough batters to qualify. His other stats are limited due to the sample being just over 30 innings, but rest assured that Wicks did everything his profile suggested he could do, while he steadily rose through the minors since being picked 21st overall in the 2021 Draft. 

If it’s not going to be Assad (perhaps so manager Craig Counsell can deploy him out of the bullpen), Wicks should be the heavy favorite for the final spot in the rotation. He doesn’t have the same pronounced lefty-righty splits of the other options below, and his durability (and ability to throw 100+ pitches in an outing) gives him a greater ceiling than Assad as a starter. If Wicks can mold his slider into an out-pitch against opposing left-handed batters (who hit .333 off of it in 2023), he’ll be in business. 

The Others
Hayden Wesneski: 2023 stats - 34 G (11 GS), 89.1 IP, 4.63 ERA, 5.48 FIP, 83 SO, 0.3 WAR
2024 Projections: ZiPS - 17 GS, 101.2 IP, 4.51 ERA, 4.41 FIP, 94 SO, 1.1 WAR
PECOTA - 8 GS, 66 IP, 4.29 ERA, 4.52 DRA, 58 SO, 0.6 WARP

Right off the bat, ZiPS is the high man on Wesneski’s starting prospects this year, as no other projection service has him exceeding 70 innings pitched nor ten games starting. As such, ZiPS is also the most generous in terms of his projected strikeouts and WAR, whereas PECOTA falls more in line with the consensus prediction for Wesneski in 2024. It may be helpful to view ZiPS’ projection as Wesneski’s ceiling this season, and PECOTA’s as a median outcome. 

The book on Wesneski is well-known by now: he completely owns opposing righties, but he gets owned by lefties. In 134 at-bats against opposite-handed batters in 2023, he gave up a .313/.374/.649 slash line. That’s a 1.023 OPS. In other words, lefties facing Wesneski had a higher OPS than Ronald Acuña Jr., the reigning National League MVP, did last season (1.012). In contrast, righties only slashed .202/.269/.348 against “Wesnasty,” in 173 at-bats, meaning the average righty hit him about as well as Luis Torrens (who had a .618 OPS for the Cubs in 2023).

The pitch mix for Wesneski is also familiar, as he primarily throws a fastball, a sinker and his sweeper. That sweeper is performing fine against lefties: he threw 158 last year to lefties, yielding a .200 batting average against and .400 slugging percentage against. However, his fastball is a problem: in 220 fastballs thrown to lefties in 2023, Wesneski gave up a .387 batting average and a .790 slugging average. In contrast, those pitches have performed admirably against opposing righties (the sweeper generated a .086 batting average in 298 pitches, and the fastball accrued a .237 average across 166 pitches). 

Unless the former Yankees prospect can figure out how to get the hard stuff by lefties, he’s always going to be a liability in the rotation. If he shows up to spring training with an improved changeup or cutter, then perhaps he can live up to his ZiPS projection. At this point in time, though, it feels like Wesneski is destined for match-up duty out of the pen. 

Drew Smyly: 2023 stats - 41 G (23 GS), 142.1 IP, 5.00 ERA, 4.96 FIP, 141 SO, 0.0 WAR
2024 Projections: ZiPS - 21 GS, 121 IP, 4.54 ERA, 4.63 FIP, 116 SO, 1.3 WAR
PECOTA - 0 GS, 47 IP, 4.47 ERA, 4.47 DRA, 43 SO, 0.3 WARP

Smyly has always been more of a fly ball pitcher, though his splits were as pronounced as ever last season: 34.8% ground ball percentage, 43.9% fly ball percentage. That skill set isn’t an issue when the pitcher is keeping the ball in the park, as Smyly did at the end of 2022, when he had a sub-10% home run per fly ball ratio in the second half, but it is when the pitcher is giving up 1.6 home runs per nine innings. Opponents' average exit velocity and number of batted balls exceeding 95+ miles per hour both jumped up for Smyly from 2022 to 2023. 

At this point in his career, Smyly is a three-pitch pitcher, primarily using a fastball (38.7% usage last season) and curveball (49.4%), while mixing in a cutter (12.0%). While starting, Smyly tends to use the cutter a lot more (over 20% usage in 2022). Given his limited repertoire, middling velocity (average 92.0 mph fastball last year), and ability to hold opposing lefties down, Smyly is best suited for the bullpen to start the year. Of course, if his attempted offseason repertoire adjustments take hold, the equation changes.

The Big Question
For the first time in a long time, the Cubs have significant depth in the rotation. An injury to Steele or Imanaga will hurt, of course, but it doesn’t automatically sink the season. Assad is likely to win the job after his impressive second half performance in 2023, but any of the above options would be fine as a fill-in choice, too. As pitching coach Tommy Hottovy explains: ““The more options we have, and the more flexibility that we have going into the season, [it's] always going to be the best way to start the season off. And then things always end up working themselves out.”

However, the big question lies beyond what's currently on the roster. Pitching prospects Ben Brown and Caleb Kilian are both set to begin the 2024 season in Triple-A Iowa, and chances are they’ll be stretched out as starters while the Cubs try to put off their (potential) respective transitions to the bullpen. 

Kilian has struggled mightily in his few bites at the big-league apple, compiling a 12.42 ERA in six appearances (four starts). He’s got premium velocity and sharp bite on his breaking pitches, but until and unless he learns better pitch sequencing and finally reigns in his control, Killian will remain destined to be a reliever--if he be a big-league hurler at all. Likewise, Brown struggled at Triple-A last year, posting a 5.70 ERA in 73 innings pitched. Armed with a mid-to-high-90s fastball and hammer curveball, he, too, could make for an effective reliever (or trade bait). 

The big fish in the minors is top pitching prospect Cade Horton, who, after stunning fans and pundits alike by being picked seventh overall in the 2022 Draft, has become a consensus top-30 prospect in baseball. As per North Side Baseball’s scouting report: “It was clear that with a fastball that sits comfortably in the mid-90s and flashes 98 mph, Horton's velocity wasn't an issue. We also knew about the slider: it's good. It was nice to see that Horton continued working on the changeup. While not a pitch he used often, it was a pitch he began to throw more and more as the season went along, specifically against left-handed hitters. Overall, the goateed pitcher struck out 117 hitters, walked just 27, and had a 2.65 ERA throughout 88 innings and 21 starts. It should be no shock that he was eventually named the 2023 Cubs MiLB Pitcher of the Year.”

Lastly, the Cubs are still being mentioned as suitors for the two remaining aces on the free agent market, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. As two of the Four Borasmen (Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger being the others), it’s no surprise they’re lingering on the market even as pitchers and catchers report across the game, but they will need to sign soon to get a full preseason in with their new teams. The Cubs will likely focus on the positional duo in that quartet, but don’t be shocked if the North Siders make a play for one of the left-handed starters if the long-term deals they desire aren’t out there.

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How are you feeling about the Cubs' rotation depth? Which other starting pitchers excite you, in 2024 and beyond?

 

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[CubinNY]

I would put Wicks as the favorite. I think he ran out of gas at the end of last season, Steele too. But I look for Wicks be the in the starting rotation. 

[Outshined_One]

43 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I would put Wicks as the favorite. I think he ran out of gas at the end of last season, Steele too. But I look for Wicks be the in the starting rotation. 

The hiccup that could come up from that is whether the Cubs want to keep his innings down in the early going to keep from shutting him down in August/September. In that case, they can stash him at Iowa until someone gets injured or sucks out loud.

I could see him forcing the issue in Spring Training, but we saw him run out of gas last season and he needs to build up his stamina for the long haul.

[Jason Ross]

 Yeah, I agree with @CubinNY; think Wicks is the favorite here. I think he ran out of gas in his last start or two, but that was probably bound to happen; he hasn't been going more than 5 a game in the MiLB and the Cubs were letting him go more and more often. It's not a concern I'd have moving into 2024, as I think over the offseason and with a full ST, he'll be more capable of going longer.  But I do think he's got the inside track and barring a face-fall-flat in Spring or an injury, he'll be the guy.

[Bertz]

I think Wicks is the favorite, but I do think Assad's chances are being understated by the fanbase.  There's a funny thing that happens when a guy, particularly a pitcher, is lucky.  Fans, even smart ones, often respond in one of two ways:

1. "Maybe he's an exception, and this is sustainable."  More or less boils down to this

2. Deciding the guy is bad actually.  There's a good bit of gambler's fallacy baked in here.  But you'll often see "his FIP was a run higher than his ERA!" followed by a screed about how therefore he sucks.  Blake Snell right now is a fantastic example of this. 

But there's a third path, if the ERA is lower than the FIP by a run, ask yourself: "So how would that FIP rank?" A LOT of baseball is luck, but lucky =/= bad.  Going back to Blake Snell, he pitched like an All Star last year and got luck carried him to Cy Young caliber results.  But don't ignore that first part about pitching like an All Star.

Bringing this back to Assad, he pitched well, regardless of role, after he came back to MLB for good in June.  His stint back in the rotation in August/September was particularly illuminating, as IMO even if you ignore the sparkling ERA he peripherally looked like a quality #4 starter.

I think Wicks' prospect pedigree and Assad's early success as a swingman is ultimately going to lead to Jordan getting that #5 spot.  But if I had to win a game right now Assad would pretty easily be my choice among the four contenders and so I don't think he's too much of a long shot to grab the spot for himself.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm gonna throw my hat in that I think Wesneski has a real shot, at least as much as the others.  Yes, he'll have to solve for his LHP woes last year, but given  this was the first real time this has been a problem(from MiLB thru a brilliant short MLB stint in 2022) I have faith the fixes are both in his control and reachable.  Plus you have little tidbits like Counsell name checking him as a player to be excited about and that he has the best stuff of all the options as well.

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I'm gonna throw my hat in that I think Wesneski has a real shot, at least as much as the others.  Yes, he'll have to solve for his LHP woes last year, but given  this was the first real time this has been a problem(from MiLB thru a brilliant short MLB stint in 2022) I have faith the fixes are both in his control and reachable.  Plus you have little tidbits like Counsell name checking him as a player to be excited about and that he has the best stuff of all the options as well.

For me to think he's got a chance, I've got to see the pitch mix change. His current pitch mix is just not suited to get lefties out. The sweeper is not a weapon against LHP and it's easily his best overall option. He needs a curve or a change that's viable to get there. That's not to say it's impossible, or that over the offseason it hasn't happened...just that I need to see it myself to believe it. 

I like Wesneski. But his path is mirroring more of an Alzolay path to the bullpen than anything right now. For his sake, the Cubs sake...a third viable pitch to get lefites out is just the best outcome. So fingers crossed.

[Illiterate Scholar]

I like Assad for the 5th spot out of spring. It allows Wesneski to try to figure out lefties for a bit in AAA and Wicks can have a lighter workload in Iowa for the first month or two.

Regarding Assad, I know some of the numbers don't like him as much as his ERA, but I was legitimately impressed with him toward the end of season in the rotation before he was inexplicably removed. He throws a lot of pitches and gets GBs, and I'm a big fan of his 2 seam/cutter combo. If there was a pitcher getting by on smoke and mirrors last season, it was more Wicks to me than Assad.

[Brandon Glick]

5 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I'm gonna throw my hat in that I think Wesneski has a real shot, at least as much as the others.  Yes, he'll have to solve for his LHP woes last year, but given  this was the first real time this has been a problem(from MiLB thru a brilliant short MLB stint in 2022) I have faith the fixes are both in his control and reachable.  Plus you have little tidbits like Counsell name checking him as a player to be excited about and that he has the best stuff of all the options as well.

I'm hoping so too. I was really excited when the Cubs got him at the deadline in 2022 (even if I was bummed to see efross go) and I had high hopes for him last year. If he can get his cutter-changeup combo to be more effective in and away from lefties this year, he's the dark horse in this competition.