Chris Morel: 3rd Baseman?

[Bertz]

This is probably (hopefully?) the biggest non-Boras thing to watch this spring, so we should give it it's own thread 

 

 

[CubinNY]

Love it. His problems have been throwing not fielding. They appear to be mechanical and correctable. Hopefully it works out.

[Bertz]

If you take what Morel did on offense and on the bases last year, pro-rate it to 600 PAs, and give him average defense at 3B, it comes out to just a hair under 4 WAR.  I am sure Jed is not just hearing about this from Craig Counsell

Chris Morel has been just that bad at 3B.  He has 44 errors in 164 professional games at 3B.  It's not just a Jimmy Rollins situation where he piled them up in rookie ball either, he has 15 in 55 games at AA and above.  I don't have his winter league numbers from December handy but they were right in line with this as well.

We've generally moved beyond errors and Fielding Percentage in analysis, but that is a catastrophically high number of errors.  Patrick Wisdom, who has begun piling up errors the last two years and lost playing time as a result, has 25 in 166 games and the advanced metrics grade him as a -10 fielder.  Extrapolate Morel out and you get a damn near -20 defender at 3B.  The Adam Dunn of 3B.  You can see why the team hasn't made the move that feels so obvious if you just focus on his bat.

The glass half full is that Morel has been doing the super-utility thing since COVID.  If he can actually focus on 3B he's not going to get all the way into the black, but maybe he can cleqn things up just enough to get somewhere in the -5 to -10 range?  You'd still not let him on the field when Steele's pitching, but otherwise that's perfectly playable.

 

[Petrey10]

Aramis Ramirez was pretty bad defensively when he came to the cubs. Turned into a nice glove there. That’s my hope here.

[Rcal10]

39 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Idk playing him at 3B in ST is am obvious thing to do but key is “we have to play them at a certain level that it makes for the bat to be in there.” AfaIk Morel hasn’t been a good defensive IFer for years and the ceiling as a starter doesn’t seem particularly high given his low OBPs. We’re basically looking for a younger Wisdom, no? Not bad but not necessarily taking the team to new heights as Wisdom is a second division player they’re 0/3 for playoffs with. I love surprises and opportunity doesn’t hurt in ST, but my expectations are definitely tempered going in 

Last year Morel had OPS of 821 with OPS+ of 116. 2nd year in the majors with very few AB over AA. How is is offensive ceiling not particularly high? Even if last year was his ceiling, that is a good offensive player. If he could handle 3rd it would be a huge plus for the team. 

[Rob]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Last year Morel had OPS of 821 with OPS+ of 116. 2nd year in the majors with very few AB over AA. How is is offensive ceiling not particularly high? Even if last year was his ceiling, that is a good offensive player. If he could handle 3rd it would be a huge plus for the team. 

Morel doesn't have much plate discipline and has major swing-and-miss issues.

Some guys, like PCA, have a weakness. In his case, it's high heaters. And if you can get PCA to make whatever adjustments are necessary such that he can reliably get to high heaters without sacrificing his coverage of the rest of the zone, then he could cut the strikeout rate pretty significantly.

But Morel's contact issues aren't quite as isolated like that. It's all across the zone, and on all types of pitches. He's a bit better against fastballs, so maybe you can make some improvement by getting him to wait back a bit on the breaking stuff, but that'll exacerbate the fastball issue such that it's probably a breakeven thing overall. So nobody is expecting anything more than modest improvements from Morel.

[Rcal10]

18 minutes ago, Rob said:

Morel doesn't have much plate discipline and has major swing-and-miss issues.

Some guys, like PCA, have a weakness. In his case, it's high heaters. And if you can get PCA to make whatever adjustments are necessary such that he can reliably get to high heaters without sacrificing his coverage of the rest of the zone, then he could cut the strikeout rate pretty significantly.

But Morel's contact issues aren't quite as isolated like that. It's all across the zone, and on all types of pitches. He's a bit better against fastballs, so maybe you can make some improvement by getting him to wait back a bit on the breaking stuff, but that'll exacerbate the fastball issue such that it's probably a breakeven thing overall. So nobody is expecting anything more than modest improvements from Morel.

So modest improvements on 821 OPS? So what is that, 840 OPS? I would consider that very good. Even if he settles into numbers like last year he would be a good offensive player. I understand some people not liking the swing and miss in his game. But in the end, anyone with OPS over 800 and OPS+ of 116 is a solid offensive player. Those place in 3rd on the team last year and 2nd in the current team. 

[Rob]

9 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So modest improvements on 821 OPS? So what is that, 840 OPS? I would consider that very good. Even if he settles into numbers like last year he would be a good offensive player. I understand some people not liking the swing and miss in his game. But in the end, anyone with OPS over 800 and OPS+ of 116 is a solid offensive player. Those place in 3rd on the team last year and 2nd in the current team. 

His OPS is slugging-heavy, which is less than ideal. His .821 OPS was roughly equivalent in value to Happ's .791 OPS which was heavier on OBP.

I don't want it to sound like I'm bashing Morel. I like him. And I too have dreams of him finding the ability to play adequate defense, making some offensive adjustments, and looking like Adolis Garcia last year. But that's a pretty aggressive wish. More likely than not, he wont develop so well.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, The20thK said:

Didn’t they try him at first in the DR? 

They reportedly had him doing work with a coach during winter league, but in the games he didn't play at all at 1B.  18 games worth of innings at 3B, 3 at SS, and 1 in the OF.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The glass half full view is that Morel has shown some measure of competency at 2B, which combined with his arm and athleticism means there's no structural/talent reason he can't be functional at 3B.  And while he has played a lot on the left side of the infield, but he hasn't had the clarity of a single position to try to drill into the nuances so he can avoid avoidable mistakes, and make the footwork second nature.

 

The glass half empty view is that Morel's problems have shown up at both SS and 3B where he is unplayably error prone, and that makes up almost 75% of his minor league defensive innings.  And while he has shown better at 2B, that's still only about 55 games across minors and majors so it doesn't inspire confidence that it's not noise or something else.  Plus at nearly 25 he's not at the age where you typically see dramatic changes in defensive competency, especially on the infield.

 

I certainly hope it's more the former than the latter, and would even be interested in Morel starting at Iowa again if that's what gave him the reps to be playable without compromising the MLB team in the meantime.  But I suspect the latter is what wins out here and that Morel simply doesn't have the skills to be a MLB infielder.

[Rex Buckingham]

OPS+ leaders for players who primarily played 3B in 2023:

Jose Ramirez 131

Isaac Paredes 131

Austin Riley 128

Rafael Devers 126

Gunnar Henderson 125

Alex Bregman 122

Jake Burger 120

Jeimer Candelario 119

Manny Machado 115

Max Muncy 115

 

Burger put up 2.5 WAR (BRef)  and Jeimer put up 2.9  - both of those guys (I think) lost value from their time at DH and 1B... both played around 140 games... I think Morel can easily provide that value, and if Morel is playable at 3rd like those two (not good, but not a butcher) it allows greater flexibility at the DH position because you no longer HAVE to use it to get your best power hitter in the lineup

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Rex Buckingham said:

OPS+ leaders for players who primarily played 3B in 2023:

Jose Ramirez 131

Isaac Paredes 131

Austin Riley 128

Rafael Devers 126

Gunnar Henderson 125

Alex Bregman 122

Jake Burger 120

Jeimer Candelario 119

Manny Machado 115

Max Muncy 115

 

Burger put up 2.5 WAR (BRef)  and Jeimer put up 2.9  - both of those guys (I think) lost value from their time at DH and 1B... both played around 140 games... I think Morel can easily provide that value, and if Morel is playable at 3rd like those two (not good, but not a butcher) it allows greater flexibility at the DH position because you no longer HAVE to use it to get your best power hitter in the lineup

What he said. 

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Rob said:

His OPS is slugging-heavy, which is less than ideal. His .821 OPS was roughly equivalent in value to Happ's .791 OPS which was heavier on OBP.

I don't want it to sound like I'm bashing Morel. I like him. And I too have dreams of him finding the ability to play adequate defense, making some offensive adjustments, and looking like Adolis Garcia last year. But that's a pretty aggressive wish. More likely than not, he wont develop so well.

But again, so what if he doesn’t develop at all? If he post 821 with OPS+ of 116, he is a bat that deserves to be in the line up. So IF he can play 3rd it would be a huge win. I also find it odd that anyone can say a guy who is under 25 with little AAA experience and basically learned in the majors, won’t develop. Especially so if that someone likes the player and doesn’t want to bash him. Interesting that you mentioned Garcia as if it some dream for Morel to turn into him. They had the same slugging % and Garcia beat Morel in OPS .836 to .821. Alonso checked in at .821 as well. So exactly how much growth does Morel really need to be considered a good offensive player. 

Edited February 18, 2024 by Rcal10

[Rob]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

But again, so what if he doesn’t develop at all? If he post 821 with OPS+ of 116, he is a bat that deserves to be in the line up. So IF he can play 3rd it would be a huge win. I also find it odd that anyone can say a guy who is under 25 with little AAA experience and basically learned in the majors, won’t develop. Especially so if that someone likes the player and doesn’t want to bash him. There is a lot of gray between Garcia and Morel. If last year was Morel’s average season that would be fine. 

I am on record in this thread as having said I liked Morel, and expect modest improvements. So let's keep it in perspective. Nowhere did I say he won't develop, or that he isn't a fine player as-is.

That said, if he doesn't develop any further, he's going to find himself in an awkward position in 3-4 years. He's a good hitter, but not a great one. Once he starts getting expensive, the Cubs aren't going to want to pay him much money to be a DH. But we can cross that bridge when we get there.

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, Rob said:

I am on record in this thread as having said I liked Morel, and expect modest improvements. So let's keep it in perspective. Nowhere did I say he won't develop, or that he isn't a fine player as-is.

That said, if he doesn't develop any further, he's going to find himself in an awkward position in 3-4 years. He's a good hitter, but not a great one. Once he starts getting expensive, the Cubs aren't going to want to pay him much money to be a DH. But we can cross that bridge when we get there.

Keeping it in perspective my comment is IF Morel can handle 3rd base it would be a huge win for the Cubs. Offensively he doesn’t even have to improve to be valuable. I am sure a guy with OPS of .821 and OPS+ of 116 has a spot in the line up assuming he also plays a passable 3rd base. I do expect some improvement as well. But my biggest worry is he can’t play 3rd. Then your point in what happens with him in 3 or 4 years becomes a valid point. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Morel's not so young or skilled that it's so easy to see improvement (esp that .260 IsoSLG) let alone on both sides of the ball.  He hit .250/.323/.441 in nearly 1500 MiLB PAs, has hit .241/.311/.471 over nearly 1000 MLB PAs (847). Power is king and he hits the crap out of the ball so the offense may not fall off too much in 2024 (ftr ZiPs projects him for a 108 OPS+, Steamer abt the same), but I'd be wildly (pleasantly) surprised if Morel hit like last year, took, and held 3B even this one season

Wildly surprised? I am not going to argue with you on this. Some people just love to use analytics to predict everything. I am not an analytical person. I just see a young guy put up the number he did, get better from one year to the next and still not be in his prime and say “he should get even a bit better” since prime age for a ballplayer js 27-30. But if I had to bet, I would say he is closer to 115 than he is 108 next year. And maybe even 120’s. I would be mildly surprised if he regressed. 
And, keep in mind I am only talking offensively. I honestly don’t know if he can handle 3rd. I am just glad they are trying him there.
BTW, I am in no way criticizing you for your POV. I just don’t share it. I watched baseball long before analytics became a huge thing. I am too old and don’t really want to dig deep into numbers so that I can prove what someone did one year he shouldn’t be able to do again. I just choose to believe if someone did it before and improved for 2 straight years and is still young”ish” there may be more upside. I have at least enough believe to not be wildly surprised if he did it again. 

[CubinNY]

Morel cleaned up his main problem from previous seasons last season. But now he needs to cut down on chasing. He’ll be 24 this year. Two years young than Busch. 
His offensive future is bright or they would not be trying so hard to find him a position. 
 

if he can’t play 3rd, it’s going to be tough going for him on the Cubs. 

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Morel cleaned up his main problem from previous seasons last season. But now he needs to cut down on chasing. He’ll be 24 this year. Two years young than Busch. 
His offensive future is bright or they would not be trying so hard to find him a position. 
 

if he can’t play 3rd, it’s going to be tough going for him on the Cubs. 

I agree with you in his hitting upside. I also believe if he can play 3rd it would be a major win. But if he can’t he is still a solid DH(next year)Just would much rather see him at 3rd so they can sign a DH bat to take AB away from Wisdom and Madrigal. 

I also agree with you that if he can’t play 3rd he might not be long for the Cubs. But for next year he would DH.