Article: Projecting the Cubs' 2024 Opening Day Roster, v. 2.0

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Cubs' offseason is far from complete, but they've made enough moves in the last two weeks to merit a refresh of the roster projection we did for them last month. Let's tackle the task.

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

One month ago, I wrote up the most likely 26-man roster for Opening Day 2024, which then looked an awful lot like the team we last saw at the end of 2023, less the much-discussed Cody Bellinger. It was purely an exercise in framing, because we all knew the roster would look much different than that come late March.

Now, things are a little more in focus. The lineup, the rotation, and the bullpen have each gotten an infusion of talent, and the depth chart at each position is starting to make more sense. Still, it feels certain that more will change. We just heard from Josh Illes this weekend about Jed Hoyer's enigmatic "fourth or fifth inning" comments, and the implication that there might be a lot more action ahead. For today, then, let's lay out the various units of the roster as it stands, while understanding that this is more work-in-progress than either rough draft or final copy.

Lineup

1. Mike Tauchman, CF
2. Nico Hoerner, 2B
3. Ian Happ, LF
4. Seiya Suzuki, RF
5. Michael Busch, 1B
6. Dansby Swanson, SS
7. Christopher Morel, DH
8. Yan Gomes, C
9. Nick Madrigal, 3B

The addition of Busch really makes the lineup feel less shaky. Sliding his left-handed bat into the middle of the batting order, even with the understanding that he's somewhere south of stardom, pushes Swanson and Morel down into spots where they fit more naturally, and Busch seems better able to balance and lengthen the heart of the order than the guy he's replacing in this mix, Matt Mervis.

As we creep closer to spring, I wonder increasingly whether Gomes will be the starting catcher again. Bringing him back on an affordable team option was a no-brainer, because he's respected and beloved by teammates and had a fine year at the plate. He's in hid mid-30s, though, and massive offensive regression would be no big surprise. We might see more of Miguel Amaya than has been generally believed, and sooner.

Bench

• Amaya, C
• Patrick Wisdom, 3B/1B
• Miles Mastrobuoni, IF
• Alexander Canario, OF

Again, I'm leaving Pete Crow-Armstrong off the roster and back in Iowa, for the moment. If the team can assemble a more reliable, dangerous position-player group, and if Crow-Armstraong has a great Cactus League, I won't object to seeing him break camp with the team. Right now, though, he looks like an almost glove-only contributor in the short term, and that's a tough fit on this roster. 

By contrast, Wisdom becomes a better fit for the team by the day. With Busch taking the majority of the playing time at first base, Wisdom pairs beautifully as a platoon partner for him, and can continue to be deployed on a matchups basis opposite Madrigal at third. Of course, a Bellinger signing would change some things, but it looks like there's a wide-open lane to 300 plate appearances for Wisdom again, in a way that could help the team.

Starting Rotation

1. Justin Steele - LHP
2. Shota Imanaga - LHP
3. Jameson Taillon - RHP
4. Kyle Hendricks - RHP
5. Jordan Wicks - LHP
6. Javier Assad - RHP

Even more than the Busch acquisition, Imanaga changes the landscape. While we continue to feel out how they'll actually do things, I'm listing six starters, because I expect the rotation to feel as much like a six-man group as a five-man one, even if they rarely use six in an on-schedule cycle. At any rate, this pushes Taillon and Hendricks down to the area where they fit much better, and the depth (in addition to prospects on the come, like Cade Horton) is such that they can give themselves a chance to win just about every day.

Bullpen

• Adbert Alzolay - RHP
• Julian Merryweather - RHP
• Yency Almonte - RHP
• Mark Leiter Jr. -  RHP
• Drew Smyly - LHP
• José Cuas - RHP
• Hayden Wesneski - RHP

This unit feels the most out of joint right now--not worst, just least smooth or complete. They need more certainty at the back end of the game, but they also face the constraint of several players being out of options and unable to be sent to the minors. Few teams in MLB worry less about having those out-of-options guys piled up in the pen; Jed Hoyer is willing to lose the relief projects who don't work out. Still, they have some rebalancing to do, here and elsewhere.

We'll probably end up doing this another time or two before Opening Day actually comes. The roster is far from final, and activity should come as soon as this week. For now, though, what do you think of the above production? Whom would you remove, and in favor of whom? Discuss it here.

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[CubinNY]

That's a shaky bullpen. 

[cincycub31]

Adding another reliever that can close (through signing or trade) pushes everyone down a spot...along with a dominant Luke Little and the bullpen would look a lot better.

[Bertz]

This definitely feels like the team if the season started today, maybe with an Assad or Wesneski down at Iowa instead of working long relief.  What I'm interested in is how some of these roles shift with the last couple acquisitions.

- Bellinger would push Tauchman to the bench and presumably Mastrobuoni off the roster.  I like Miles but there's nothing controversial here

- It sounded at Cubs convention like Jed's adding two bats.  Ideally that second guy would be a starting caliber 3B, but there don't appear to be many of those out there.  So who is that guy, and who does that push off the roster?  Like you alluded to Wisdom fits well right now but he's a prime candidate for being pushed off the roster

- The pen is like you said a bit weird.  There are currently three long relievers, which Ross would love but Counsell doesn't lean on as much.  Almonte and Cuas are both sinker/slider righty specialist types.  The closest thing to a LOOGY is Leiter.  I'm increasingly wondering if two more RPs are on the way.  One signing and one trade, with the trade coming via someone(s) that's a bit of a square peg on the roster

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

This definitely feels like the team if the season started today, maybe with an Assad or Wesneski down at Iowa instead of working long relief.  What I'm interested in is how some of these roles shift with the last couple acquisitions.

- Bellinger would push Tauchman to the bench and presumably Mastrobuoni off the roster.  I like Miles but there's nothing controversial here

- It sounded at Cubs convention like Jed's adding two bats.  Ideally that second guy would be a starting caliber 3B, but there don't appear to be many of those out there.  So who is that guy, and who does that push off the roster?  Like you alluded to Wisdom fits well right now but he's a prime candidate for being pushed off the roster

- The pen is like you said a bit weird.  There are currently three long relievers, which Ross would love but Counsell doesn't lean on as much.  Almonte and Cuas are both sinker/slider righty specialist types.  The closest thing to a LOOGY is Leiter.  I'm increasingly wondering if two more RPs are on the way.  One signing and one trade, with the trade coming via someone(s) that's a bit of a square peg on the roster

You pegged it right for me, too. And yet...

It feels like I'm forever torn between what I would do or want Hoyer to do, and what he's actually likely to do. I look at this layout and I think, "It needs a couple significant FA signings and three trades: one that's prospects for a key player, one that swaps need for need, and one that clears roster clutter for you and helps a team that doesn't have as much depth as you do, even if all you get out of it is small-scale salary relief."

But that feels like so much more than Hoyer's going to do. It feels more like he'll make one big signing, skip the need-for-need trade, and go into the season with a team that's well-positioned to win 86 games but stretched to even dream on 95.

[Rcal10]

40 minutes ago, Matt Trueblood said:

You pegged it right for me, too. And yet...

It feels like I'm forever torn between what I would do or want Hoyer to do, and what he's actually likely to do. I look at this layout and I think, "It needs a couple significant FA signings and three trades: one that's prospects for a key player, one that swaps need for need, and one that clears roster clutter for you and helps a team that doesn't have as much depth as you do, even if all you get out of it is small-scale salary relief."

But that feels like so much more than Hoyer's going to do. It feels more like he'll make one big signing, skip the need-for-need trade, and go into the season with a team that's well-positioned to win 86 games but stretched to even dream on 95.

I expect one bat FA signing, one pen arm as a free agent signing and one bat via trade. That is a minimum.