Article: Let's Not Let the Prospect of Bringing Back Cody Bellinger Lose Its Sizzle

[Transmogrified Tiger]

56 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Bellinger is a great fit for the 2024 Cubs, and maybe the 2025 Cubs too.  Being able to jump between center and 1st is extremely valuable here in the short term where we have fun kids at both spots.  If PCA is going all Corbin Carroll on the league Bellinger can play 1st, conversely if he struggles while Caissie is hitting 119 MPH nukes at 1B Bellinger can cover center.

The problem is that while 2023 Cody Bellinger hit enough for you to happily play him anywhere, 2024 Cody Bellinger is probably going to have a bat that's fairly uninspired at 1B.  To be a quality starter at 1B you need to be 20+% above average at the plate.  Bellinger's bat going forward looks like it'll come in right there, probably a bit south of there.  For as long as he's needed to regularly cover CF that's fine, but I don't want to give him Dansby Swanson money for what should hopefully only be a couple months of coverage.  Even if you're bearish on PCA, CF isn't a situation like shortstop last year where if we don't grab a guy then we are resigning ourselves to it being a hole for a while.  We have internal CF's behind PCA and the market's not totally barren over the next 15 months either.

If Happ and Suzuki weren't locked down it'd be totally different.  Bellinger moving to a corner is a bit of a waste but not enough to lose sleep over.  But as it is, I just can't look at paying market price for Bellinger as a good idea unless PCA gets dealt.  And I can't really get behind that unless Jed goes really big game hunting.

 

I don't want to be a broken record about this or trivialize that it would be a somewhat tricky management challenge(earn your money Craig, I guess?), but Bellinger can play RF and Seiya can DH.  For that matter, maybe Seiya *should* DH given how he's graded out at the position over 2 years and how much emphasis the roster has around defense.  And even if you're convinced the 'if PCA hits' outcome is definitely 1B, don't forget that Bellinger adds value above the typical 1B with his speed, and as such even with offensive regression would still be around a 3 win 1B.  I understand how that may not be optimal given the power composition of the rest of the lineup, but it doesn't scare me off making the upgrade if that's what's there.  Though I am on the team that doesn't want PCA up until Memorial Day and am trying to remind myself that the odds are decent he's a platoon or worse bat in a lot of different outcomes.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Oh one other thing on this that really informs my thinking.  From the 3 OF spots, 1B, and DH you need 810 games each year.  Even if you have 6 guys you love for those spots, with equal playing time they're still averaging 135 games each, and less than 4 players per team exceeded that mark last year.  Injuries, rest, matchups, and poor performance will happen,  so I'm not really cowed by him not being an insanely snug fit on Day 1.  Doubly so in the case of someone like Bellinger with a well rounded profile and doesn't need to be signed until he's 38.

[Bertz]

33 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I don't want to be a broken record about this or trivialize that it would be a somewhat tricky management challenge(earn your money Craig, I guess?), but Bellinger can play RF and Seiya can DH.  For that matter, maybe Seiya *should* DH given how he's graded out at the position over 2 years and how much emphasis the roster has around defense.  And even if you're convinced the 'if PCA hits' outcome is definitely 1B, don't forget that Bellinger adds value above the typical 1B with his speed, and as such even with offensive regression would still be around a 3 win 1B.  I understand how that may not be optimal given the power composition of the rest of the lineup, but it doesn't scare me off making the upgrade if that's what's there.  Though I am on the team that doesn't want PCA up until Memorial Day and am trying to remind myself that the odds are decent he's a platoon or worse bat in a lot of different outcomes.

It just feels like a lot to accommodate a what by most estimations looks like a good-not-great bat? 

I'm probably overstating how likely it is that one of PCA, Canario, Alcantara, etc. are a first division starter within the next 18 months.  But even if you want to pick apart the internal options, it's just not that hard to find a CF on the market currently.  Tyler O'neill, Manuel Margot, Cedric Mullins, Mike Yastrzemski, and Trent Grisham all hit the FA next offseason or the offseason after (and thus potentially the trade block before that).  I'd prefer Bellinger to any of those guys, but not by enough to lock into  2027-2029 Bellinger.

Mainly I think you're just more bullish on Bellinger's bat than I am. The juice is worth the squeeze for a ~125 wRC+ where it's just simply not for a ~110.  The argument for the former isn't crazy.  You've laid out some good points previously, and there's also the Isaac Paredes pulled flyballs stuff.  But the totality of what I've seen has me expecting the latter.

[Layoutman]

Just don't think Jed is going to trade PCA - period.  PCA is cheap and should provide GG caliber defense up the middle with years of team control. Hopefully being humbled during his first ML stint will bring the needed changes for him.  

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

41 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Mainly I think you're just more bullish on Bellinger's bat than I am. The juice is worth the squeeze for a ~125 wRC+ where it's just simply not for a ~110.  The argument for the former isn't crazy.  You've laid out some good points previously, and there's also the Isaac Paredes pulled flyballs stuff.  But the totality of what I've seen has me expecting the latter.

Yeah there's two main points here.  One is 'how good is Bellinger's bat', and I'm not gonna tell people 'no absolutely not he's a 125 wRC+ hitter for sure' if you're super worried about the batted ball peripherals, even if I disagree.  The other is 'even if he hits he's not a great fit since we have PCA and a ~120 wRC+ is only okay for 1B', and that one I structurally think is incorrect given the lack of certainty from PCA, the value he would actually add at 1B, and the practical upshot of what positional needs the team has.

[Maddux31]

Bellinger scares me. He’s been injury prone and is long and lanky, with a lot going on with his swing that could easily get out of sync. But those batted ball numbers are what scares me the most. There just isn’t anything there to like. And defense often begins to slide when a player hits his early 30s.

That all said, it’s not hard to imagine getting to late January with the Cubs still desperate for a bat and Jed overpaying Bellinger in terms of both AAV and years.

I guess 6/150 would be palatable (barely), but I think it’s a big risk. The question might end up being, however, “Is it a risk the Cubs can afford NOT to take?”

[Backtobanks]

One reason to trade PCA is that he has the highest trade value on the Cubs.  A couple of hypothetical trades from MLBTV would certainly fill most of the major holes on the team.

Wesneski + PCA for Bieber + Clase + Naylor  

Alcantra + PCA + Palencia + Triantos + Wicks for Cease + Robert + Moncada

As everyone has stated before, the problem is that Hoyer doesn't want to spend the money or give the years to sign a star and he doesn't want to trade the prospects necessary to make a big trade.

 

[Rcal10]

I am fine with the Cubs not getting Bellinger. But is they don’t they have to make a trade for a solid left handed bat. There are none in free agency. Basically they would need to make a trade for Naylor. And then they would need another bat. So either Hoskins or Chapman as a free agent or trade for Alonso. If the Cubs feel Morel can handle third base Hoskins would be my choice. If not, sign Chapman and let Morel DH, or make, yet, another trade for someone like Torres, Lowe or Polanco and let them play 3rd and Morel DH.  If they were able to get Naylor and Bieber without using PCA, which they should be able to do, at least they would have a decent line up. Add another staring pitcher via free agency and a pen arm and you have a solid high 80’s to low 90’s win team. They have enough in the system to make any of those deals. And they would still have a decent system. Guys like Bieber, Alonso, Polanco, and even Torres shouldnt be too expensive because this is the last year of their contracts. If they don’t want to block prospects and Morel can’t handle third, maybe a trade is bettter than Chapman. 

[LBiittner]

57 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I am fine with the Cubs not getting Bellinger. But is they don’t they have to make a trade for a solid left handed bat. There are none in free agency. Basically they would need to make a trade for Naylor. And then they would need another bat. So either Hoskins or Chapman as a free agent or trade for Alonso. If the Cubs feel Morel can handle third base Hoskins would be my choice. If not, sign Chapman and let Morel DH, or make, yet, another trade for someone like Torres, Lowe or Polanco and let them play 3rd and Morel DH.  If they were able to get Naylor and Bieber without using PCA, which they should be able to do, at least they would have a decent line up. Add another staring pitcher via free agency and a pen arm and you have a solid high 80’s to low 90’s win team. They have enough in the system to make any of those deals. And they would still have a decent system. Guys like Bieber, Alonso, Polanco, and even Torres shouldnt be too expensive because this is the last year of their contracts. If they don’t want to block prospects and Morel can’t handle third, maybe a trade is bettter than Chapman. 

If these players are going to be had for a song and dance, why aren't other teams knocking down the door to snatch them up?