Article: What Would You Give Up to Make Framber Valdez a Cub?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Names are flying through the MLB trade rumor mill on the eve of the Winter Meetings. One stands out, though, as both an especially unexpected and an especially impactful potential target for the Cubs.

Image courtesy of © Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

To be clear, The Athletic Astros beat writer Chandler Rome didn't say the Astros are looking to trade Framber Valdez. On the contrary, they're still viewing themselves as right in the thick of their competitive window, even if the Rangers' win over them in the ALCS and their thinning farm system suggest that that reign of terror is finally heading into its decline phase. However, given some salary constraints we discussed last week in the context of a different Houston-related trade rumor, Rome still views Valdez as a possible trade candidate.

There’s no indication that the Astros are seriously considering trading any of their established major league talent, but not listening to what other clubs offer would be negligent. One name makes more sense than others - https://t.co/a58ubVMTbv

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) November 30, 2023

That would be a fascinating trade market, and as enticing a target for the Cubs as has yet been named. Valdez, 30, ran out of steam in a visible and worrisome way late in this season, but he's one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. In the age of the 160-inning ace, he's averaged just a whisker under 200 innings over the last two regular seasons, and another 37 frames across the two postseasons. In the last four seasons, he's received Cy Young votes three times.

With two years of team control left and a projected salary between $12 million and $13 million for 2024 via arbitration, Valdez would cost more to acquire than Tyler Glasnow, Corbin Burnes, or Shane Bieber. He's also worth much more. One of the elite ground-ball guys in the game, he fired a no-hitter in 2023, and dazzled in the 2022 World Series, contributing as much as anyone to the Astros pulling out that championship. Lest his rough second half and his age worry you, he threw harder than ever in 2023, with his sinker averaging north of 95 miles per hour. 

It's the curveball that makes Valdez great. The pitch is nicknamed 'the Ax', and that's fitting, because its violent downward chop cuts through hitters so ruthlessly. Few breaking balls are both bat-missers and ground-ball getters, but Valdez's curve manages that trick. He was almost a two-pitch starting southpaw (like Drew Smyly and Justin Steele) until a few years ago, but he's brought along (first) his changeup and (especially in 2023) his cutter to such an extent that he's now a fairly legitimate four-pitch guy. The cutter firmed up significantly after an in-season mental adjustment, and works a lot like a slider off his sinker against fellow lefties. 

Again, the Astros are trying to thread the needle. Any trade for Valdez would need to include young talent they believe will help them in the short term, as well as in years beyond 2025. Christopher Morel probably isn't a great fit there, though he could certainly find playing time in the short term and they could try to groom him as the replacement for Alex Bregman after Bregman hits free agency next fall. It's likely that the lead piece in a trade would have to be someone like Jordan Wicks or Ben Brown--a level above the top pitching names the Cubs figure to make available in trades for Glasnow or Bieber.

With Valdez, though, the Cubs' pressure to add to the starting rotation would essentially disappear. They'd have one of the game's most durable aces, and someone from whom Justin Steele might still learn a trick or two. Any other additions the team made--be it Shohei Ohtani, Josh Hader, re-signing Cody Bellinger, or something completely off our radar--would get more exciting with Valdez as the anchor of the rotation. It's worth discussing, even if it's unlikely that the deal will actually materialize.

What do you think? Is two years enough club control to make you willing to trade Wicks or Brown? Do you prefer Valdez, Glasnow, Bieber, or a bigger splash in the free-agent starter market than the Cubs appear to have planned?

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[Transmogrified Tiger]

I haven't thought deeply about this but I think I prefer the path of pursuing Glasnow, even if for no other reason than he's really and truly "available", while these Astros rumors seem to be them signaling for some other team to impress them more than really needing to get a deal done.  That said, Valdez would afford you more flexibility in how you approach those "Tier 2" additions on top of a big bat and the SP.  If that's the difference in getting Hoskins v. getting more into the Mancini zone in salary that has more collapse risk, I surely wouldn't hate that on top of Valdez having the extra year of control.

[Bertz]

Can we bring Valdez's 70% groundball rate back?  The walks and strikeouts are moving in the right direction, so he's probably better tha he was a couple years ago, but he was way more fun when we was running freakish GB rates.

But he'd be a huge add.  Also feels more realistic for Houston to put on the market than Bregman.  They've got decent pitching depth.

Cost would be huge.  Morel, their choice of Brown/Wicks, their choice of Alcantara/Caissie?  I'd do it depending on what else Jed does.  It'd also be something fun to pair with Glasnow in a no-Ohtani/no-Soto scenario.  A rotation where Justin Steele is our 3rd starter would be one of the few ways to alleviate the sting of missing both those generational bata.

 

 

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Can we bring Valdez's 70% groundball rate back?  The walks and strikeouts are moving in the right direction, so he's probably better tha he was a couple years ago, but he was way more fun when we was running freakish GB rates.

But he'd be a huge add.  Also feels more realistic for Houston to put on the market than Bregman.  They've got decent pitching depth.

Cost would be huge.  Morel, their choice of Brown/Wicks, their choice of Alcantara/Caissie?  I'd do it depending on what else Jed does.  It'd also be something fun to pair with Glasnow in a no-Ohtani/no-Soto scenario.  A rotation where Justin Steele is our 3rd starter would be one of the few ways to alleviate the sting of missing both those generational bata.

 

 

I don't think the third piece would be quite on that level. Maybe more like Canario or Arias, depending on their appetite for risk and upside. Or maybe it's Brown or Wicks and Shaw, and they don't want Morel at all. But yeah, the potential fits are equal parts fascinating and improbable. Sure would make a compelling new roster though.

[Stratos]

His numbers look like what Yamamoto might put up in MLB.