Chicago Cubs Trade Target: Alex Bregman

It remains hard to see how, given the competitive posture of the Toronto Blue Jays and the two years of team control they still hold over Bo Bichette, the Cubs could acquire the young star at a price commensurate with his value to them. They'd be paying the exorbitant price a contender ought to extract when trading a key player at a premium position with multiple years of control left, and they'd then be moving Bichette from shortstop to third base, where his replacement level is inevitably lower.

There are just enough variables moved around, though, to make rumors that Alex Bregman is available much more plausible. Under contract for just one more season, Bregman is due $28.5 million in 2024, and while he remains an incredible player, it's been four full seasons since he was a superstar and MVP candidate in 2018 and 2019. The Astros have not paid the competitive balance tax since that tax gained some real teeth, over a decade ago. The only year in which they exceeded the tax was 2020--when the league furloughed the tax to allow teams to save money during the pandemic. Without any additions or further subtractions, the team stands just a few million dollars below the first threshold for 2024; they have to move some money.

"I think they're listening. Keep on eye on Alex Bregman." @JimDuquetteGM isn't sure the #Astros can re-sign their star third baseman next offseason.

Here's what he's hearing about Bregman's availability in the trade market: @Astros | #Ready2Reign pic.twitter.com/sf0LrDflu0

— MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (@MLBNetworkRadio) November 27, 2023

Bregman is a good candidate, in terms of striking the delicate balance between having substantial trade value, not being locked in beyond the coming season, and having a lot of real dollars attached to him. Because of the structure of his deal, trading him would only clear $20 million from Houston's books for tax purposes, but the difference between that and his real salary (so, $8.5 million) could become a cushion that Jim Crane would use to pay any bills if the team just edged over the threshold for this year. After 2024, it's not just Bregman who leaves. So, too, does Justin Verlander, for whom the Astros are on the hook for over $18 million next year. They'll have the flexibility to duck right back under the threshold, but in order to be willing to clear it even for one year, Crane might ask his front office to save him money en route.

Because the push factors making Bregman (theoretically) available are stronger than is the case with Bichette, the asking price would be lower. He's older, more expensive, and will hit free agency again sooner. He also has a lower ceiling than Bichette, who has been very good but not yet a true superstar in his time in MLB, and who will be just 26 years old in 2024. The Cubs wouldn't be getting as dynamic a player, but the certainty and the smaller transaction cost with Bregman matter. Bregman is already a third baseman, and a fine one. The Cubs wouldn't need to make a position change and hope it went well, and they wouldn't be asking for someone's house so they could use it as a car.

While his power has sagged slightly since his peak, Bregman controls the strike zone as well as any hitter in baseball. Of the 201 batters with at least 750 plate appearances since the start of 2022, Bregman has the 12th-highest walk rate and 10th-lowest strikeout rate. Arguably, there's no one in baseball who puts together tougher at-bats. Unlike many other players who are almost as good at those plate-discipline skills, he also gets the ball in the air at a high rate.

That doesn't mean he's without risk. Again, his power is diminished, relative to his best seasons, and it's fair to wonder if some of that power was more about the extremely aerodynamic ball the league used in 2018 and 2019 than about Bregman himself. He pulled the ball much less last season than in the past, which had something to do with an intentional change in approach but might also indicate that his bat is starting to decline. 

Nonetheless, the fit here is obvious. Bregman does well the things the Cubs prize most from their hitters. In the Killer Tofu lineup they keep threatening to build (lethal, but without beef), Bregman would make a lot of sense. The question is what the Astros would want in return for him, but even there, a match might be found with relative ease. Houston is suddenly in need of some upper-level pitching depth, and the Cubs have that to spare, given an opportunity like this.

What do you think of Bregman as a potential Cubs acquisition? How far should the Cubs go to make this happen? Let's chop it up.