Article: Jordan Montgomery and What the Cubs Want From a Starting Pitcher

[Matthew Trueblood]

On Friday, Jeff Passan rolled out his preview of the Winter Meetings at ESPN+. Within it were several juicy Cubs tidbits, not least an unexpected connection to one of the market's top left-handed starters.

Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

It's true that this is the first time we've heard the Cubs tied to Jordan Montgomery, the erstwhile Yankees and Cardinals southpaw who made such a strong impression by fronting the Rangers rotation in October. That doesn't make this actually surprising, though, because the guy does a lot of the things the Cubs want starting pitchers to do. As much as fans have fixated on the apparent need for more whiffs from the starting rotation in 2024, that's not necessarily the Cubs' priority.

Contrariwise, the team prizes durability, pitchability, and the ability to fill up the strike zone. It's not by pure coincidence that they went out into last winter's free-agent market and came back with Jameson Taillon. It's not an accident that Kyle Hendricks is the final on-field holdover of the 2016 team. It's not Justin Steele's internal wiring that led to the halving of his walk rate and his command-over-stuff breakout in 2023. Whereas many teams lock in on specific, stuff-oriented pitch characteristics, the Cubs prefer a holistic and fundamentally old-school approach--even if they use extremely modern and quantitative methods to make sure that approach works.

Montgomery fits into all of that gorgeously. He runs below-average strikeout rates, which will dent his value on the market even as his postseason brilliance gooses it. He also limits walks and induces lots of weak or harmless contact, though. Moreover, he takes the ball every fifth day. Since the start of 2020, Montgomery has made 104 regular-season starts--more than all but eight other pitchers in MLB. He's 19th in innings pitched over that span. 

While the Cubs have quietly become great at finding high-velocity, great-stuff arms in relief, they continue to prefer things other than raw power or movement in the rotation. That's why Montgomery, who sits right around 93 miles per hour with a sinker that doesn't really miss bats (but which he does command very well), figures to appeal to them as much as to almost any other team in MLB. I think the team believes that some of the movements that generate extreme velocities and elite spin also tend to generate physical problems. They believe in guys with pitching-specific athleticism, who can succeed without pushing the limits of their tissues as hard as some others do.

It's not as though Montgomery is without an injury history. He underwent Tommy John surgery five years ago. Other than that, though, he has an impressively clean record. The only starts he's missed since coming back from that operation were when he was shelved with COVID in 2021. When on the mound, he also pitches in a distinctly Cubs style.

Though he utilizes a sinker as his primary fastball, Montgomery works with the pitch up in the zone, just as Kyle Hendricks and other Cubs have recently had some success doing. It doesn't miss bats, but it induces weak contact and plenty of ground balls. By contrast, and partially because of the combination of his over-the-top delivery fastball command, his changeup and curveball each miss plenty of bats. The curve isn't one of those hissing, 3,000-RPM things, though. It has perfect spin mirroring with the sinker, but tumbles, a bit the way Drew Smyly's works. It doesn't back up, as Smyly's sometimes does, but it has the same unorthodox hook-behind-the-navel effect on hitters.

His changeup is especially funky. Of the 139 pitchers who threw at least 200 changeups in 2023, only six had less arm-side run on that pitch than Montgomery, and only two got less drop on it. What he throws is a true, floating straight change, a pitch that befuddles right-handed batters because it looks so much like his sinker out of the hand and then feels like it never gets to them. The Cubs (led by Hendricks's famous cut-change) had the changeups with the least run in the league last year, and they were sixth in changeups with the least downward movement.

None of this means that Montgomery will actually sign with the Cubs. They have irons in many fires when it comes to upgrading the rotation, and they also have to bolster their lineup this winter, all without breaking the bank too badly. Still, it shouldn't shock anyone to see these parties mentioned in connection with one another, because they could not be a more serendipitous match on a pure profile level. Dating apps would run these two at each other like zoo breeders locking endangered animals in one small habitat. Whether that actually results in consummation is uncertain even for Farmers Only and the zoo, though, so we shouldn't expect it to be automatic here, either.

View full article

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I can't escape the feeling that from a results perspective, the main thing separating pre-FA Montgomery from pre-FA Taillon is that Montgomery got to spend 30 starts over the last 2 years in one of the worst parks for hitting HR while Taillon was a RHP pitching in Yankee stadium.  I'm not sure they're exactly the same caliber, and I wouldn't forecast Taillon's 2023 for Montgomery.  Nor do I think Taillon was an especially bad signing.  But I'm pretty uneasy signing up to give a 6 year deal in the 20-25M AAV range for someone running such pedestrian K rates given the team's needs.  Especially when Montgomery's stuff and pedigree doesn't offer much hope for further advancement.

[Bertz]

I am mostly anti-Montgomery.  Giving him ~$150M is not unreasonable in a vacuum, especially with no QO, but it's paying a premium for safety and stability and durability.   A team with the cache of minor league arms the Cubs have should be doing more hunting for impact.  It's part of why I'm so full throated in my support of the Glasnow idea.  On the FA side I like Imanaga, who has a 3 WAR projection in 120 innings. 

Like the Cubs' rotation is not impervious to injury.  Steele's huge innings jump is a major red flag, Taillon’s had two TJs, and Hendricks is not far removed from a major shoulder problem.  But even still the volume is there that I don't love paying a premium for the safe option.  Maybe to be safe you need to add two arms to mitigate risks, but this FA market has a really great crop of secondary SP options.  

[Jason Ross]

I'm pretty much in full-agreement with @Transmogrified Tigerand @Bertzhere. I don't think Montgomery is the worst player, or the worst outcome, but represents much of what I hope the Cubs stop doing; which is targeting the safer, less impactful market (regardless of his price tag) nearly exclusively. What the Cubs need, even if it comes with a bit of risk, are some upper echelon, impact talents on the team. 

Edited December 1, 2023 by 1908_Cubs