Plan your own trade deadline

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 minute ago, UMFan83 said:

I never looked at his savant numbers.  He has the lowest hard hit% in his career by a decent amount, and is in the bottom 10% of the league.  16% percentile in EV, 19% percentile on barrel%, below average in most of the expected numbers.  Interesting, though I don't think the Cubs ever really planned on extending Bellinger anyways.

I had no idea his metrics were that low, but how much of that could be driven by his approach at the plate?  His two strike approach lately has been to shorten up significantly and just dump the ball into the outfield, and it has been working.  Maybe that is unsustainable, but it sure appears that he is making a concerted effort to just put the ball in play when he gets behind in the count.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I expect the return for Bellinger will be similar to the return they got for Willson. I think it's possible they could get a back of the Top 100 type for him, and I fully expect that to be not nearly enough to part with the draft compensation they'll get for him.  There was the rumor that Willson would've gone to the Astros for a current MLB player(Urquidy) were it not for Crane/Dusty so maybe a deal pops up in that vein that's worth it, but that's such a narrow path as the Willson adventure shows.

[JBears79]

14 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

As a thought exercise or way to pass the time until more legitimate rumors come about, let's do a roundup of hypothetical bold trades.  These are not necessarily endorsements, but I can see the logic for them and they pass the BBTV calculator so there's some external validation that they aren't way off in left field even if they may not be everyone's cup of tea.

 

• Kevin Alcantara for Michael Kopech
  • Why? To piss people off right at the start.  More seriously, the Sox will be selling, and Kopech offers velocity at a cheaper cost than you can find most anywhere else, along with the pedigree to dream on a Diet Arrieta turnaround.  The Sox have both the lack of prospect depth and short term urgency to be able to push Alcantara to MLB as fast as his option clock requires him to.
• Christopher Morel for Edward Cabrera
  • Why? Morel has been a young, controlled offensive success so why trade him?  Because the front office doesn't appear to trust him to play any position, and while the skills are there the consistency is not(case in point: Morel has a 91 wRC+ since his HR streak ended in May).  Cabrera is another premium velocity SP who hasn't put it entirely together, and the Marlins are the rare org that would be looking to deal from a surplus of pitching talent for additional oomph in their lineup.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong for Dylan Cease
  • Why? Because we didn't learn our lesson from the first trade involving Cease.  Kidding aside, prospects fail, and a future with Cease + an extended Bellinger is arguably more attractive than PCA + FA SP.  The Sox get a big time headliner for their big trade chip that other orgs are likely unwilling to offer.
• Justin Steele for Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad
  • Why? The odds of Steele staying at this level for the entirety of his team control given his age and stuff are slim.  Mayo and Kjerstad solve multiple short & long term problems at 2 of 3B/1B/DH (depending on your view of Mayo's D) and make the offseason a more straightforward task of reassembling the rotation.  Baltimore borrows from the thing it has the most(hitting prospects lower in the defensive spectrum) to get the thing it has least(controllable SP with MLB success).

I think I'd do all these but PCA for Cease would be a tough one for me. Love Cease but PCA's floor combined with his ceiling makes him hard for me to give him up when he should be a core piece for the next decade or so. That's also personal preference for me. Finding a CF with his floor and ceiling combo is tough to do imo.

 

It would suck to lose Steele but there is an argument to be made for moving him and I really like the pitching talent we have coming up and we have a ton of offensive holes everywhere. I think I would try to get Westberg over Mayo though since I think Westberg has a better chance of sticking at 3B.

[Hrubes20]

17 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

As a thought exercise or way to pass the time until more legitimate rumors come about, let's do a roundup of hypothetical bold trades.  These are not necessarily endorsements, but I can see the logic for them and they pass the BBTV calculator so there's some external validation that they aren't way off in left field even if they may not be everyone's cup of tea.

 

• Kevin Alcantara for Michael Kopech
  • Why? To piss people off right at the start.  More seriously, the Sox will be selling, and Kopech offers velocity at a cheaper cost than you can find most anywhere else, along with the pedigree to dream on a Diet Arrieta turnaround.  The Sox have both the lack of prospect depth and short term urgency to be able to push Alcantara to MLB as fast as his option clock requires him to.
• Christopher Morel for Edward Cabrera
  • Why? Morel has been a young, controlled offensive success so why trade him?  Because the front office doesn't appear to trust him to play any position, and while the skills are there the consistency is not(case in point: Morel has a 91 wRC+ since his HR streak ended in May).  Cabrera is another premium velocity SP who hasn't put it entirely together, and the Marlins are the rare org that would be looking to deal from a surplus of pitching talent for additional oomph in their lineup.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong for Dylan Cease
  • Why? Because we didn't learn our lesson from the first trade involving Cease.  Kidding aside, prospects fail, and a future with Cease + an extended Bellinger is arguably more attractive than PCA + FA SP.  The Sox get a big time headliner for their big trade chip that other orgs are likely unwilling to offer.
• Justin Steele for Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad
  • Why? The odds of Steele staying at this level for the entirety of his team control given his age and stuff are slim.  Mayo and Kjerstad solve multiple short & long term problems at 2 of 3B/1B/DH (depending on your view of Mayo's D) and make the offseason a more straightforward task of reassembling the rotation.  Baltimore borrows from the thing it has the most(hitting prospects lower in the defensive spectrum) to get the thing it has least(controllable SP with MLB success).

1.  Kopech is pretty terrible, so the first trade would be a hard pass for me.  Maybe make that deal based around a Nelly Velasquez package.  

2.  I would do the Morel/Cabrera deal.  This one makes a lot of sense to me.

3.  I would absolutely be on board with PCA for Cease, but only if a reasonable Bellinger extension was already in place.  That won't happen with Boras, so this one is moot.  But that would be the type of deal you would have ask for if PCA was involved.  

4.  I don't hate the framework of the Steele deal.  I think Kjerstad is going to hit well for quite awhile in this league.  But I wouldn't want Mayo as part of this deal unless the O's somehow threw him in as a 3rd piece.  Iffy defense at 3B and I'm not a fan of his hit tool.  Power is terrific though, when he does make contact.  

[Tryptamine]

With Cedric Mullins looking like he's out for an extended period and Mountcastle sucking, the Orioles become a perfect home for Stroman and Bellinger. I wonder how reasonable this is.

Stroman+Bellinger for Kjersted+Seth Johnson+Connor Norby. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

With Cedric Mullins looking like he's out for an extended period and Mountcastle sucking, the Orioles become a perfect home for Stroman and Bellinger. I wonder how reasonable this is.

Stroman+Bellinger for Kjersted+Seth Johnson+Connor Norby. 

I'm guessing a team at the Orioles point in the competitive window is gonna be a tough sell to give so that much value for two rentals, even if the value isn't wrong.  It'd be easier if e.g. Brandon Marsh went down and the Phillies were the team(though they have fewer fun things to trade for) given their roster/future outlook/Dombrowski.

[Tryptamine]

2 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’d rather try to boil the O’s down to Westburg than be cute about this 

Heston by himself is a better piece than Westburg

[Jason Ross]

52 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

With Cedric Mullins looking like he's out for an extended period and Mountcastle sucking, the Orioles become a perfect home for Stroman and Bellinger. I wonder how reasonable this is.

Stroman+Bellinger for Kjersted+Seth Johnson+Connor Norby. 

I think probably too much on the O's end.  I think Kjerstad + one of the other 2, maybe some low level 19/20 year old arm with upside as a third, the Cubs picking up significant money on the contracts.