1B/DH roster choices

[BigbadB]

Watching Hosmer fumble that grounder last night drives me crazy. There are so many people that still think he has something to offer and I don't see it. This can be a playoff team, but apparently they'd rather have Iowa make playoffs instead. Dude hasn't won a gold glove since 2017 and isn't winning another one.

Bring up the guys who are proving they belong here. What happened to rewarding production?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I tend to try to be curious and think through all the reasons for a decision I don't understand, especially when it comes to ostensibly smart front offices making them.  But there's two things that really tip me to Mervis needing to come up and play most days. 

 

One is that Hosmer is not delivering the profile that's expected.  I don't mean from a raw production, wRC+ level, though he's not been good on that front.  I mean in terms of optimizing him relative to alternatives he's regressing.  His K rate is up to 23.5%, which while not brutal in 2023 is far from the contact heavy 16-17% he'd been at for years.  He's also giving away value on the margins.  The baserunning mistake in Miami, the unearned run on the bobble yesterday, this isn't the work of a guy who's doing everything but hit for 1B power, it's a guy who's been below average across the board.

 

But the other reason that really pushes things over the line for me is Rios.  I don't know how I overlooked it until yesterday, but he's played two (2) innings at 3B this year, meaning all other PT has been in the Hosmer zone of PH/DH.  I like Rios and would be curious to see him play more, though with Wisdom's torrid start and Rios not capitalizing on small opportunities I understand it.  But he is on the roster and has an option, which means you can make several risk free changes to the status quo.  Worried about Mervis simply being unplayable for unknown reasons?  Swap the PT between Rios and Hosmer so you know what you have in Rios.  Not ready to kick Hosmer to the curb?  Option Rios for Mervis and give him Hosmer's previous share of time while Hosmer becomes the PH/matchup DH Rios was.  If Mervis isn't ready or creates some other imbalance you haven't lost any roster flexibility.

 

I suspect there's a small disconnect that's creating the current situation between Ross and the Front Office.  Reading between the lines, Ross trusts Hosmer more and Rios less than the FO, but the FO doesn't see that as a big enough deal to do something they are not comfortable with in the moment(bringing up Mervis for Hosmer or Rios).  But we're at that point, Hosmer is getting about 75-80% of possible playing time at 1B/DH while Rios is getting ~20%.  It can or cannot involve Mervis, and it can or cannot involve Hosmer getting cut, but Hosmer's PT has to go down.

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I tend to try to be curious and think through all the reasons for a decision I don't understand, especially when it comes to ostensibly smart front offices making them.  But there's two things that really tip me to Mervis needing to come up and play most days. 

 

One is that Hosmer is not delivering the profile that's expected.  I don't mean from a raw production, wRC+ level, though he's not been good on that front.  I mean in terms of optimizing him relative to alternatives he's regressing.  His K rate is up to 23.5%, which while not brutal in 2023 is far from the contact heavy 16-17% he'd been at for years.  He's also giving away value on the margins.  The baserunning mistake in Miami, the unearned run on the bobble yesterday, this isn't the work of a guy who's doing everything but hit for 1B power, it's a guy who's been below average across the board.

 

But the other reason that really pushes things over the line for me is Rios.  I don't know how I overlooked it until yesterday, but he's played two (2) innings at 3B this year, meaning all other PT has been in the Hosmer zone of PH/DH.  I like Rios and would be curious to see him play more, though with Wisdom's torrid start and Rios not capitalizing on small opportunities I understand it.  But he is on the roster and has an option, which means you can make several risk free changes to the status quo.  Worried about Mervis simply being unplayable for unknown reasons?  Swap the PT between Rios and Hosmer so you know what you have in Rios.  Not ready to kick Hosmer to the curb?  Option Rios for Mervis and give him Hosmer's previous share of time while Hosmer becomes the PH/matchup DH Rios was.  If Mervis isn't ready or creates some other imbalance you haven't lost any roster flexibility.

 

I suspect there's a small disconnect that's creating the current situation between Ross and the Front Office.  Reading between the lines, Ross trusts Hosmer more and Rios less than the FO, but the FO doesn't see that as a big enough deal to do something they are not comfortable with in the moment(bringing up Mervis for Hosmer or Rios).  But we're at that point, Hosmer is getting about 75-80% of possible playing time at 1B/DH while Rios is getting ~20%.  It can or cannot involve Mervis, and it can or cannot involve Hosmer getting cut, but Hosmer's PT has to go down.

Yeah I think this is right.  I'm fine with Hosmer on the roster, but give him the Rios PT and Mervis the Hosmer PT unless/until Mervis fails.  

I hope/assume this is going to happen soon.  We just finished a run with a ton of lefty starters, hence the near-0 playing time for Rios.  But that's done, so I'd think once they make a call on Gomes and figure out what they're doing for tomorrow's SP it should be Mervis time.  I've been amongst the most understanding of the leash Hosmer has received but Mervis not being on the roster Friday will make even me pretty irate.

[jersey cubs fan]

Does anybody really have faith that Ross would set aside the crafty vet for the unproven sort of kid? Seems like a situation where you might have to take away the security blanket from the manager to force him not to use it. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

13 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Does anybody really have faith that Ross would set aside the crafty vet for the unproven sort of kid? Seems like a situation where you might have to take away the security blanket from the manager to force him not to use it. 

Without looking up the exact specifics I feel like we've seen Ross lean too hard on some veterans and be quick/timely to move on from others, so it probably depends on how much he really loves Hosmer v. doesn't like Rios, and how much he'd take to Mervis.