Article: What is it Eric Hosmer Does Here, Exactly?

[Ian J Battaglia]

The Cubs signed Eric Hosmer to be a positive veteran influence and a part of their defensive phalanx. Less than a week into the season, though, we already have cause to wonder how long that experiment will last.

In the selloff of the championship Cubs, perhaps no bigger gap was created than the one left by Anthony Rizzo. Nico Hoerner stepped into shortstop after Javier Baez’s departure, and Patrick Wisdom had already displaced Kris Bryant at third base during the course of the 2021 season. However, the heart-shaped hole at 1B has proven tougher to fill. While we got one of the best storylines in baseball in Frank Schwindel’s brilliant half-season to close out 2021, that magic proved impossible to recapture. Alfonso Rivas was also unable to lock down a roster spot after producing a lackluster 82 wRC+ over 101 games for the Cubs in 2022.

The Cubs front office called out 1B as a position in need of an upgrade going into the season, and made several moves to do so. They signed Trey Mancini to a two-year deal (with an opt-out after this year if he reaches 350 plate appearances), and picked up a squeezed-out Edwin Ríos from the Dodgers. But the primary plan was also the earliest move they made: signing Eric Hosmer. 

Released from the last three years of his contract with the Padres (à la Jason Heyward), Hosmer found himself traded to the Red Sox this past season, and released from their roster in December. The Cubs didn’t hesitate much, signing Hosmer to a league-minimum deal (as the rest of his salary remains paid by the Padres) in early January.

Hosmer is a name that’s been bandied about for the Cubs for a few seasons now, but why? Well, I’d argue you only need to look around at the rest of the diamond to see the full picture. While first base is a bat-first position, the Cubs have decided to make one part of baseball their touchstone for 2023: defense. This should be no surprise to anyone who’s watched the first few games, as Marquee is keen to show the Outs Above Average (OAA) of their two star infielders, Hoerner and Dansby Swanson, as well as the Gold Glove wins by each member when introducing the defensive alignment at the start of the game.

Sure enough, with four Gold Gloves to his name, Hosmer stands out even among a highly-decorated defensive unit. However, Gold Gloves are a flawed marker at best. As happens with many other awards, narratives can sometimes lead metrics, so the reputation and hardware might not match the results. Cubs fans should know this well; Ian Happ beat out the Brewers’ Christian Yelich (who’s borderline unplayable defensively) for his first Gold Glove in left field last year.

So what do the defensive metrics say about Hosmer? Defensive statistics are notably noisy. They often vary greatly year to year, and different metrics might disagree on the same player. Yet, they paint a fairly consistent picture about Hosmer. By OAA, last year Hosmer graded out at -2, in the same company as Rizzo. Still, it should be noted that this only puts him in the middle of the pack, with most first basemen falling between +3 and -4. That -2 range is the recent story for Hosmer; he’s ended up around there since 2020. Actually, it’s in his early career that he ran into trouble–ironically during the seasons in which he won his defensive awards. For his career, he’s been worth -38 OAA, and -35 of that came between 2016 to 2019. That seems to suggest either some defensive improvement (or at least a leveling out), in spite of what Padres fans might tell you.

Is that enough? For one thing, Trey Mancini has graded out as well as Hosmer by OAA, albeit over a smaller sample. Beyond the glove, you can’t forget the bat. The story with Hosmer has been the same for years. He’s hitting the ball fairly hard, but directly into the dirt, turning him into one of the game's most-efficient double-play machines. Last year, he led first basemen with a whopping 56.8 ground-ball percentage. Among all players last year, only the Diamondbacks’ Alek Thomas and the Brewers’ Yelich beat him out. Unlike OAA, this is not a recent trend. Going back to 2018, his rate remains 56.6 percent, the fourth-highest in baseball.

So what is it the Cubs think he brings to the table? Well, it seems clear to me that they view him as the best defender available on the roster at first; someone they were able to add for a league-minimum salary; and someone who projects to be an above-average bat (if only slightly) according to ZiPS, with an above-average walk rate and below-average strikeout rate. But you can’t talk about first base for the Cubs in 2023 without talking about the man waiting in the wings, prospect Matt Mervis. While Mervis is not exactly viewed as a defensive wizard, his bat is becoming undeniable. At the very least, he has little left to prove in the minors. Between Hosmer’s low salary, middling performance, and the potential future of the position a mere bus ride away, Hosmer’s got his work cut out for him to hang on to this roster spot for more than a few weeks. Each missed pick and mental miscue will only make his playing time harder to justify.
 

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[squally1313]

Not to reduce this solid article too much here, but....

"someone they were able to add for a league-minimum salary".

That's kinda the whole point right? Feel like he's been lumped in with the Bellinger and Mancini deals when we are paying Hosmer a fraction of the money we're spending on those guys. The difference between any realistic Mervis projection and a very slightly above replacement level Hosmer over a few weeks stretch is essentially splitting hairs. If we're still having this conversation in the middle of May (which is contingent on Mervis continuing to mash), sure. Otherwise, we've got much bigger problems here. 

[Brian707]

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Hosmer is a hedge.  He was a hedge that other 1B/DH types might be too rich for them to add and they didn't want to do nothing in that space(they thankfully added Mancini).  He's a hedge that Mervis, an undrafted* 24 year old who was a complete non-entity a year ago, may not be ready for 500+ MLB PA this year.  And he's a hedge that the Cubs might have a way to help Hosmer himself, whether via mechanical changes or just riding a wave of rule changes he stands to benefit from to some degree.

[Brock Beauchamp]

11 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Hosmer is a hedge.  He was a hedge that other 1B/DH types might be too rich for them to add and they didn't want to do nothing in that space(they thankfully added Mancini).  He's a hedge that Mervis, an undrafted* 24 year old who was a complete non-entity a year ago, may not be ready for 500+ MLB PA this year.  And he's a hedge that the Cubs might have a way to help Hosmer himself, whether via mechanical changes or just riding a wave of rule changes he stands to benefit from to some degree.

I get this but guys better than Hosmer were available for not much more money. In today's game, it costs mediocre reliever money to sign a stop-gap 1B/DH type, I simply don't see a need to drop down to Eric Hosmer levels, particularly a franchise with the payroll capacity of the Cubs.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I get this but guys better than Hosmer were available for not much more money. In today's game, it costs mediocre reliever money to sign a stop-gap 1B/DH type, I simply don't see a need to drop down to Eric Hosmer levels, particularly a franchise with the payroll capacity of the Cubs.

They signed one of them too, Mancini.  And once Seiya is back you'll probably see more of Wisdom/Rios at first, to say nothing of Mervis(or even Morel) pushing Hosmer off the roster entirely if the former keeps raking and the latter doesn't hit.  Hosmer playing 1B all year was never plan A, but he was always going to get the most potential time at the start of the season, even before Suzuki's injury.  If he doesn't catch fire(and for all the hand wringing already we're talking about 4 games) he's not gonna be long for the roster unless there's other complications that go beyond his roster spot.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

They signed one of them too, Mancini.  And once Seiya is back you'll probably see more of Wisdom/Rios at first, to say nothing of Mervis(or even Morel) pushing Hosmer off the roster entirely if the former keeps raking and the latter doesn't hit.  Hosmer playing 1B all year was never plan A, but he was always going to get the most potential time at the start of the season, even before Suzuki's injury.  If he doesn't catch fire(and for all the hand wringing already we're talking about 4 games) he's not gonna be long for the roster unless there's other complications that go beyond his roster spot.

As long as they move on quickly if things go wrong, it won't be a disastrous move but for a team with payroll space and fringe competitor hopes, I feel they should aim higher in acquisitions.

I wholly get and support the Mancini and Bellinger signings. They help the team get better and have trade upside should things go awry.

Whereas I just don't "get" the Hosmer signing.

[squally1313]

9 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I get this but guys better than Hosmer were available for not much more money. In today's game, it costs mediocre reliever money to sign a stop-gap 1B/DH type, I simply don't see a need to drop down to Eric Hosmer levels, particularly a franchise with the payroll capacity of the Cubs.

Can you name specifics? Santana put up a 102 wRC+ after two years of being a below average hitter and signed for 8x the money. Jesus Aguilar put up a .660 OPS last year in over 500 PAs. Franchy Cordero hasn't been an above average hitter since 2019. Are you talking Brandon Belt? $9m isn't 'not much more money' than $720k and kinda ruins any future Mervis has. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, Brock Beauchamp said:

As long as they move on quickly if things go wrong, it won't be a disastrous move but for a team with payroll space and fringe competitor hopes, I feel they should aim higher in acquisitions.

I wholly get and support the Mancini and Bellinger signings. They help the team get better and have trade upside should things go awry.

Whereas I just don't "get" the Hosmer signing.

I'm not gonna tell you the Hosmer signing is a masterstroke, but the investment here is equivalent to an NRI.  His name and that he started 4 of 5(partially because of an injury) games to start is probably giving greater weight to his importance than is really there.  Could they have spent more and gotten Wil Myers or Carlos Santana?  Maybe, but it seems clear the team is right at where they wanted to spend heading into the year(no coincidence the Hoerner extension starts next year so they don't go into the LT) so having your 1B depth be cheap and easy to part with if he fails/Mervis succeeds is just as much feature as bug.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

Can you name specifics? Santana put up a 102 wRC+ after two years of being a below average hitter and signed for 8x the money. Jesus Aguilar put up a .660 OPS last year in over 500 PAs. Franchy Cordero hasn't been an above average hitter since 2019. Are you talking Brandon Belt? $9m isn't 'not much more money' than $720k and kinda ruins any future Mervis has. 

Even though he doesn't profile as a typical first baseman, I'd rather have Donovan Solano for $2m. He has a lot more positional versatility, too, and I think low-power, high-average players will play up a bit in 2023.

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Even though he doesn't profile as a typical first baseman, I'd rather have Donovan Solano for $2m. He has a lot more positional versatility, too, and I think low-power, high-average players will play up a bit in 2023.

Zips projections:

Solano: .274/.326/.381

Hosmer: .273/.329/.409

Do we need another guy who can play the infield with the rest of the roster? He hasn't played in the outfield in 10 years. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Zips projections:

Solano: .274/.326/.381

Hosmer: .273/.329/.409

Do we need another guy who can play the infield with the rest of the roster? He hasn't played in the outfield in 10 years. 

I just really dislike Eric Hosmer. Maybe it's irrational.

(not personally, just as a player)

[Bertz]

I think Hosmer was a good idea in January that became a bit redundant when it became clear the team was happy with Rios' changes during ST.  But he's making the league minimum, once he goes from "a bit redundant" to "an actual problem" he'll get the boot.  

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I just really dislike Eric Hosmer. Maybe it's irrational.

(not personally, just as a player)

Yeah sure, totally fair. Just saying that the other options that are more or less on par financially are pretty much all in the same boat in terms of actual ability, even if they don't invoke such...frustration as someone so aggressively mediocre as Hosmer.

[Rob]

I feel weird taking up the banner, but I'm actually a fan of the Hosmer signing.

Let's get this out of the way early. The only reason that I like him at all is his league-minimum contract. And while there's no good reason for the Cubs to operate on the tight budget that they do, that's the reality of our ownership situation. And in that reality, guys on a contract like this can only be bad if they're performing below replacement-level or taking at-bats from better players.

And when it comes right down to it, Hosmer isn't likely to perform below replacement-level. He's not a great player, by any means. But he's an above-average defender, and he hits at a slightly better than league average clip. And to that point, given his extreme groundball proclivities, there's a good chance that the rule changes to the shift play to his benefit. He's not a good baserunner, but he's not Billy Butler.

So is Hosmer taking ABs from better players? It's certainly possible. Mervis may be better. But that's still a very open-ended question. There's likely no harm in trotting Hosmer out there until Mervis shows a little more. And it's not like the other guys Hosmer is competing with for ABs don't have their own question marks.

Hosmer is a steady enough known quantity with a little upside thanks to the new rules. And with his contract, he'll be out the door in a flash if he isn't living up to his end of the bargain, or if our young guys start mashing. He does no harm while holding the fort for a bit. Not bad for literally no additional investment above the league minimum.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I have no idea how the value math adds up, but his defense at first has been noticeable in a positive way.