What should we expect from Bellinger?

[Bull]

This page shows the players most likely to benefit from the shift this year. It's a fairly simple analysis that shows what they did in 2022. It doesn't attempt to predict if players like Seager and Muncy will change their swing patterns to pull the ball more. Hint: they will.

The other interesting thing here is Cody Bellinger on this list (alongside Schwarber). His 9 outs that would have been hits on line drives adds .018 to his BA automatically. Add the grounders that would have snuck through. Add the fact that he won't be afraid to pull the ball because of the shift and I think you have something even without any "improvement".

His barrel percentage was in the 54th percentile, which means he was making good contact better that 54% of hitters, but his hard hit percentage was only 38th percentile, meaning that these barrels were not resulting in the power you'd expect. You might write this off as a lack of strength due to the injury, but his average exit velocity was 57th percentile, meaning when he did make good contact, it was really good contact.

Sooo... either he was sometimes weak/sore and other times his old MVP self --or-- he was being shifted so often that he was afraid to really pull the ball and do what he was capable of. Either way, I think we can expect big things from Bellinger this year.

[Bertz]

Bellinger is definitely going to be a benefactor from the shift ban. That said, if it's 18 points of average, that's like 40ish of OPS? Probably enough to get Bellinger's 2022 within a stones throw of league average offense, but not much more. Coincidentally, that is where he's being projected for this year. So if we're asking what we should expect, that's exactly it IMO. Maybe give him a bit more boost if Ross is more aggressive providing platoon help than the Dodgers were. With his defense and baserunning that should be a quality player, but not an impact one.

 

Obviously the hope is for a lot more, and for him to revert to his star (if not MVP) form. I do hope it's as simple as better health and being further removed from his injury. One thing I'm going to be keeping a close eye on is his top end exit velocities. Bellinger, even in his MVP year, never put up those silly Judge/Stanton/Schwarber sorts of numbers of like 120 MPH. But he was well above average, and since he hit essentially everything in the air it led to primo power numbers. The last two years post shoulder injury Bellinger's max EVs have been 107 and change, which is what you'd associate with like a second basemen. If Bellinger rips a ball or two at 110 or 112 early in the season that's a really good sign that really good things are back on the way.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I hesitate to put too much weight behind this, but Spring Training may be a pretty decent bellwether for Bellinger(bellwethinger?). At a minimum, he's never had a strong spring(.830+ OPS, .225+ AVG) and not been an above average hitter(110+ wRC+) that season, so if the results are there in Mesa we should feel pretty good about the season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The variance on Bellinger is so large I can't even begin to predict how he will perform this season. Nothing would surprise me at this point.

[cl smooth]

He looks perpetually high

[Bull]

Bellinger is definitely going to be a benefactor from the shift ban. That said, if it's 18 points of average, that's like 40ish of OPS? Probably enough to get Bellinger's 2022 within a stones throw of league average offense, but not much more. Coincidentally, that is where he's being projected for this year. So if we're asking what we should expect, that's exactly it IMO. Maybe give him a bit more boost if Ross is more aggressive providing platoon help than the Dodgers were. With his defense and baserunning that should be a quality player, but not an impact one.

 

Obviously the hope is for a lot more, and for him to revert to his star (if not MVP) form. I do hope it's as simple as better health and being further removed from his injury. One thing I'm going to be keeping a close eye on is his top end exit velocities. Bellinger, even in his MVP year, never put up those silly Judge/Stanton/Schwarber sorts of numbers of like 120 MPH. But he was well above average, and since he hit essentially everything in the air it led to primo power numbers. The last two years post shoulder injury Bellinger's max EVs have been 107 and change, which is what you'd associate with like a second basemen. If Bellinger rips a ball or two at 110 or 112 early in the season that's a really good sign that really good things are back on the way.

 

But is the .018 more if he pulls more balls. And will he pull more with no shift?

[Bertz]

Bellinger is definitely going to be a benefactor from the shift ban. That said, if it's 18 points of average, that's like 40ish of OPS? Probably enough to get Bellinger's 2022 within a stones throw of league average offense, but not much more. Coincidentally, that is where he's being projected for this year. So if we're asking what we should expect, that's exactly it IMO. Maybe give him a bit more boost if Ross is more aggressive providing platoon help than the Dodgers were. With his defense and baserunning that should be a quality player, but not an impact one.

 

Obviously the hope is for a lot more, and for him to revert to his star (if not MVP) form. I do hope it's as simple as better health and being further removed from his injury. One thing I'm going to be keeping a close eye on is his top end exit velocities. Bellinger, even in his MVP year, never put up those silly Judge/Stanton/Schwarber sorts of numbers of like 120 MPH. But he was well above average, and since he hit essentially everything in the air it led to primo power numbers. The last two years post shoulder injury Bellinger's max EVs have been 107 and change, which is what you'd associate with like a second basemen. If Bellinger rips a ball or two at 110 or 112 early in the season that's a really good sign that really good things are back on the way.

 

But is the .018 more if he pulls more balls. And will he pull more with no shift?

 

Bellinger's already near the top of the league in that regard, and has been very consistent throughout his career. I doubt there's a ton of room to go up without potentially breaking him. Although never say never I guess, Matt Carpenter did that in his short stint with the Yankees last year.

 

Hosmer on the other hand might be more of an option to try something radical. Teams and writers have wanted to flyball revolution him for nearly a decade, so it seems pretty unlikely he's got it in him. But maybe now that we are post shift and he's in the roster fringe stage of his career he'd be desperate enough to actually go through with it.

[We Got The Whole 9]

He looks perpetually high

He also always looks like he's trying to lift 1000 lbs when he swings

 

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[The_Achiever]

.238 & 18 home runs.

[Cubswin11]

Mid .800 OPS, 25+ dongs, gold glove type defense and wins comeback player of the year.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

76 games and a sendoff in late July.