Spring Training Mega Thread

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This might be more of a conceptual question, but do we look at decisions like 'playing Velazquez in center' last year a little different going into this year given the pretty clear lack of importance place on actually winning games last year? I treat the second half of last year (and really probably the whole year) as more of an audition for the younger guys than some sort of tacit approval of skill sets.

 

I think that's fair, and I wouldn't take Velazquez's playing time to mean they think he's a bona fide MLB CFer. But in the context of this roster decision and the angle that Bertz described, I think it's noteworthy that they at least thought highly enough to try him there in an experimental time when they definitely didn't *have* to with the other players on the roster. I think that's at least a slight indicator that in answering the call for 'we need someone on the roster who can play a solid *RF* in Suzuki's absence', the team would think Velazquez is up for it, especially considering arm is not a limiting factor in his case.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Boooooooooo and does anyone know the difference?

 

40 man vs not I think?

[Tim]

 

Boooooooooo and does anyone know the difference?

 

40 man vs not I think?

Correct.

[ChiCubsFan]

LOVE the new rules/pace. Just got to watch Wesneski mow down 12 straight batters in like 35 minutes.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Whichever team has the most pitchers arms explode/the worst pitching depth

 

To that end, the Mets rotation is 3 guys 36 or older, a Japanese import that got less than expected, and the prayer that Quintana’s HR rate stays unsustainably low, with little hope for a SP stalwart on the farm. The negative long tail outcomes are really really bad.

 

Yeah, I think the Mets are the vulnerable ones, too. Their upper end outcomes are so damn good that it makes you a little uneasy to say it, because if they win 104 games or something then I'll feel stupid, but if we remember that all we're looking for is the team projected for 88+ wins who's most likely to sag back to 92 or something? I firmly believe that could be the Mets. Maybe Baty and Alvarez, their top prospects, really hit, but if they don't, then there's also some age- and injury-related downside in the lineup. I think the prices they paid for guys like Eduardo Escobar, Mark Canha, and Omar Narvaez can obscure the fact that there's a real risk of those guys not producing much of anything in a given season. Their bullpen depth is a bit less daunting than it could be, too.

 

hey look Quintana isn't gonna pick up a baseball until June, well I'm sure the 36, 38, and 40 year old in that rotation will be able to make 90+ starts no problem

[CubinNY]

[Bertz]

 

The bullpen is going to shove this year

[CubinNY]

 

The bullpen is going to shove this year

It's kind of amazing, really. This guy has been bumping around the minors since he was 22. Didn't come to this bigs until 29 and has a total of about 40 IP in the majors.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

A pretty good mailbag from Mooney focused on the opening day roster: https://theathletic.com/4310817/2023/03/15/cubs-javier-assad-nick-madrigal/

 

- Madrigal seems favored to make the team

- Morel and Velazquez probably more likely to get developmental at bats in Iowa, which means Tauchman is probably the beneficiary while Seiya is on the IL

- Wesneski appears to be the clear favorite for the #5 spot

- Wick getting his contract signed without arbitration signals the Cubs have a plan for him and his roster spot isn't in jeopardy

- A second LHP in the pen isn't certain, and someone like Leiter Jr(who was very good against LHH last year) may take that spot instead

 

There's also a note on Assad's WBC performance. Pending further injuries, you can see this come into clearer focus:

 

Gomes/Hosmer/Hoerner/Swanson/Rios/Wisdom/Bellinger/Happ/Mancini

Barnhart/McKinstry/Madrigal/Tauchman

Stroman/Taillon/Steele/Smyly/Wesneski

Fulmer/Boxberger/Hughes/Thompson/Alzolay/Wick/???/???

 

That leaves the remaining questions as:

 

- Does someone force their way onto the MLB bench? DeLuzio and Mastrobuoni are the two main options this side of Mervis, and I'm not sure the bench group with them looks appreciably different/better.

 

- Who gets those last 2 bullpen spots? You've got Leiter Jr, Duffey, Merryweather, Assad, and Sampson as the main candidates, plus Sanders and Burdi have made some noise in ST. I could honestly see almost any pair of those first 4, the most declarative statement I'd make is I doubt both Assad and Sampson make the OD roster.

[Bertz]

I'm going to be extremely annoying if one of Merryweather or Estrada doesn't make the bullpen. If I ruled the world they both would, but we damn sure ought to have at least one monster stuff guy on the roster at all times.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm going to be extremely annoying if one of Merryweather or Estrada doesn't make the bullpen. If I ruled the world they both would, but we damn sure ought to have at least one monster stuff guy on the roster at all times.

 

I forgot about Estrada, though I think he's fine to start the year in Iowa. It's a tough call, because someone between the stuff monster(Merryweather/Estrada), the long reliever(Sampson/Assad), or the lefty killer(Leiter Jr/Duffey) can't make the opening day roster unless Mooney is way off in his confidence about Wick(who has been good this spring himself). I honestly don't know which of those I prefer, I guess Merryweather/Sampson? Might change my mind by tomorrow though, never mind Opening Day.

[Tim]

I vote for team "stuff monster"

[Bertz]

I'm going to be extremely annoying if one of Merryweather or Estrada doesn't make the bullpen. If I ruled the world they both would, but we damn sure ought to have at least one monster stuff guy on the roster at all times.

 

I forgot about Estrada, though I think he's fine to start the year in Iowa. It's a tough call, because someone between the stuff monster(Merryweather/Estrada), the long reliever(Sampson/Assad), or the lefty killer(Leiter Jr/Duffey) can't make the opening day roster unless Mooney is way off in his confidence about Wick(who has been good this spring himself). I honestly don't know which of those I prefer, I guess Merryweather/Sampson? Might change my mind by tomorrow though, never mind Opening Day.

 

I wonder how long they're going to let Thompson and Alzolay go on a regular basis, because I think that does a lot to determine whether a long reliever is at all necessary. The indications seem to be that they're shortening them up significantly from last year, but if Thompson in particular can go 3ish innings whenever I don't think we need a LRP like Sampson around to do long stints of mopup duty.

[PackLandVA]

Cubs / Reds cancelled. In the 4th inning. Due to rain. In Arizona. In Phoenix. Who’da thunk?.?

[We Got The Whole 9]

I got caught in one of the nastiest storms I've ever experienced leaving Sedona, AZ. Could not see the road at all and there was lightning striking the hills around us for miles. Fires breaking out in the pouring rain. Those flash floods are no joke.

 

Sent from my motorola one 5G UW using Tapatalk

[David]

[CubinNY]

dry swings sounds painful.

[David]

[Bertz]

 

Sounds like there is some mild concern around Thompson and Hughes. It's not stated explicitly in here but IMO don't be surprised if Assad takes the Thompson role while Keegan irons things out at Iowa. Leiter is the obvious replacement for Hughes, but that requires a 40 man move (they already need to make a spot for Tauchman too).

 

Regarding the 40 man, it's a tough situation. There's not really much dead weight on there currently. Rucker probably comes closest, but he's in that awkward zone of too good to cut unceremoniously not good enough that I want him on the roster. Are either of Hosmer or Mckinstry's struggles this spring something the team is actually worried about? 60 Day IL for Canario? A trade would be ideal, but I guess we'll see.

[Gilby]

McKinstry has to be a DFA I would think. Mastrobuoni is a more athletic version who is also seemingly better at SS and CF.

[Bertz]

 

Pretty sold on his defense being at least playable at this point. Frequently has to take that extra step to get more on his throws, but that impacts his ceiling more than his floor IMO.

[David]

[Gilby]

at least Stroman also rips barstool on twitter

[Bertz]

https://theathletic.com/4334334/2023/03/22/cubs-keegan-thompson-velocity-struggles?source=user-shared-article

 

Good article this AM from Sharma on Keegan Thompson. The tl;dr is that its mostly mechanical in his legs, and is actually something he's dealt with before.

 

More and more looking like Iowa for him, with a callup pretty much immediately after he gets things sorted.

[David]