Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-1-22

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scheduled Game (All Times Central):

 

Iowa vs Columbus, 7:08 pm

Tennessee vs Rocket City, 6:15 pm

South Bend at Beloit, 6:35 pm

Myrtle Beach vs Charleston, 6:05 pm

ACL Cubs vs ACL Padres, 8:00 pm

DSL Cubs Blue at DSL NYY Yankees, 10:00 am

DSL Cubs Red vs DSL Mets 1, 10:00 am

 

Probable Starters:

 

Iowa: RHP Cam Sanders

Tennessee: RHP Chris Clarke

South Bens: RHP Joe Nahas

Myrtle Beach: LHP Luke Little

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Bertz]

 

That's fantastic. Hopefully he can offensively work his way through Tenn this year, and then next year be counted on for catching depth.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[muntjack]

If Made isn't at least in your top 5, you're doing it wrong.

[Jaxbro]

Dax Fulton struck out the entire South Bend line up first time through

[Bertz]

[Bertz]

[craig]

 

He's a triples machine! Those are so fun to watch. He now has 7 triples and 7 doubles on the season, crazy.

 

The Made HR binge has also been really fun. Seeing some of the clips, they are some long ones. He appears to be a rather quiet guy. In the couple of HR clips this week, I don't think he's cracked much of a smile either time, and not even much of one getting to the dugout and the other guys. Lots or players with various personalities.

 

Triantos got one, too, he's got 3 now.

 

Alex Hernandez got two hits including his first HR for DSL today. Average is up to .135. Lots of groundouts, but his K's don't actually look problematic. Just lots of grounders, groundouts, and low BABIP.

[craig]

Sam Thoreson, the Minnesota guy who had 36K/23IP last season, made his first rehab appearance for Mesa. Pitched the first and started the second, 4 walks before getting lifted.

[Bertz]

 

Add a double

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Moises Ballesteros hit 2 HRs. Cristian Hernández only was able to hit one HR (added a walk, no strikeouts).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Mervis and Slaughter both with a single and HR, Slaughter adding a BB and 2 K. I'd really like to know how viable a defender Slaughter is at 2B or 3B.

[David]

 

SHEESH.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[muntjack]

If Made isn't at least in your top 5, you're doing it wrong.

 

Eeeeeeh. I get it from the position that the system doesn't have any obvious stars and we're shy on pitchers so load up favored young bats. Beyond that I don't see how like an .8andchange OPS hitting in the high .260s to low .270s so far during round 2 at the level constitutes like a profile changing kind of jump in performance. He's getting much more contact in the air but that's more course correcting, he had to do that. I'm not sure it's any more impressive than Gallardo's big leap in pulled contact, Ks, K-BBs, otw to HR/FB% etc during his own round 2 as a similar ARL case in the system. Heck, I'd even say it's not *more* impressive as Hearn going from a 67 wRC+ to 91 with improved periphs entering tonight. I'd even go as far as offering this take that will surely go over well: Nothing Made's done during round 2 so far at MB is more impressive than Howard going from 30% Ks in MB/A to 20% Ks in SB/A+ over the sample size he got in. Don't get me wrong - better prospect than last year in pretty much every way, but still see more Orlando Cabrera than Carlos Guillen or another offensive minded starting SS (so far!)

 

Before/If we talk about walk rate and Iso...sample size! I'm much much much much more likely to buy the ~.130 IsoSLG, singledigit% HR/FB, ~7.5% BBs over 440 PAs at the level than the ~.180 and double digits he'll walk out with (so far for 2022) tn

 

----

 

Also I will insist Ethan Hearn get some love on midseason lists, solidly outside the top 10 but in top 30s for sure. It's ugly but he's productive, made big leaps, is still very young given the position and timeline (drafted 2019 out of HS as a top ranked player in his demo, pandemic 2020), and toolsy healthy LHH catchers with some defensive chops including arm strength and any sign of an offensive approach will get infinite opportunities in pro ball

 

I tend to think that having an .8andchange OPS that isn't heavily average driven is a good thing. The knock on him was pitch recognition/walk rate. He has made an unbelievable leap in that regard. I will concede that I give a lot of weight to performance over pedigree/tools, but then we all missed on Trout and Pujols and 1000 others so there's clearly a lot of room for error in subjective analysis.

[craig]

If Made isn't at least in your top 5, you're doing it wrong.

 

Eeeeeeh. I get it from the position that the system doesn't have any obvious stars and we're shy on pitchers so load up favored young bats. Beyond that I don't see how like an .8andchange OPS hitting in the high .260s to low .270s so far during round 2 at the level constitutes like a profile changing kind of jump in performance. ...

 

You're maybe kinda changing the track. Munt suggested top 5. Given the system, who are the five guys who should be ahead of him?

-PCA, obviously.

-Probably Alcantara. Although even there, Made is a little younger, and plays an elite position at a major-league level, whereas I kinda question whether Alcantara will stay in center. Plus with Alcantara being SO tall, that puts his long-levers swing highly vulnerable.

-Herz. I still imagine he'll probably end up in relief. But a guy who is SO hard to hit, and has been consistently super hard to hit, I'd clearly put him in that top 5.

-Davis, still has tenure as a power-hitting prospect. Still have to keep him in the top-5. But being perpetually injured, probably not likely to actually stay in center for many big-league years, and with such a long-levers swing with so many holes, I admit I have some doubts whether he'll be able to hit over .230 in the majors.

-Caissie. Even there, Made is younger, projects as a good SS rather than a DH, and has hit more HR's this season. Heh heh, and if the shift never gets eliminated, Made wouldn't be fighting the big-league shifts, either! :) Caissie is stacking up lots of singles in South-Bend, but I don't imagine they have the analytics and the shifts in the Midwest league like they do in the majors.

 

After that, I'm not really sure who should be higher? Killian? Wicks? Your guy Gallardo, who's a year older? Howard, who's a year older, and has yet to hit? Triantos, who's basically the same age at the same level, but without having big-league-SS defense? Cristian, even though he's only a year younger and may not project quite as well defensively? Maybe Ballesteros, a catcher with mash? Devers, with his combo of control and breaking ball?

 

I don't know, there are so many factors with each guy. But I guess I'm thinking a teenager who projects as a good big-league SS defensively, and who's showing significant HR power, who isn't a K-guy but who has fixed his BB issue, I'm not sure why he wouldn't have as good of a #6-case as any of the other guys after PCA, Alcantara, Herz, Davis, and Caissie?

 

Munt, you have Made top 5. Of my PCA, Alcantara, Herz, Davis, and Caissie 5-some, which of those would you push off your top-5 and place after Made?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[JeffH]

Craig, I'm ashamed of you.

 

Wicks, Wicks, Wicks. Top 5 for sure.

[muntjack]

 

Munt, you have Made top 5. Of my PCA, Alcantara, Herz, Davis, and Caissie 5-some, which of those would you push off your top-5 and place after Made?

 

Like everyone, I am excited about Herz. I just can't bring myself to favor a relief prospect over a legit teenage ss prospect showing power and patience.

 

Cassie I have right there but his numbers seem propped up by BABIP a bit, and like you said, he's a potential DH being compared to a legit SS.

 

I have:

 

PCA

Alcantara

Brennan

Made

Wicks

 

I know that Made in there could be considered a hot take or whatever, but it's fun to make proclamations like that, and I stand behind it.

 

Also, I think there's a decent chance Kilian will out-WAR everyone on this list but I kind of consider him graduated.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[UK]

My top 10

 

PCA

Alcantara

Hernandez

Davis

Killan

Triantos

Made

Herz

Wicks

Caissie

[Donzo]

Who had Morel as a top 10 prospect and having a breakout major league season this year? :D

 

It shows ya just never know?!? It also shows it's good to have a lot of tools.