5/4 Cubs (remember game 6 of 2016 NLCS) vs White Sox (some guy)

[CubinNY]

I have to wonder what the Ricketts are thinking. Are they proud of the product? Are they embarrassed? Do they care?

[NOLA]

Seiya is bad now? What the hell. Hadn’t paid attention in probably 2 weeks.

 

.425 OPS and 30% K rate for the last 14 games or so. Adjustments are needed and I’m sure he’ll pull out of the tailspin eventually.

Didn’t Fukudome have a hot start then crash after a few weeks?

[Bertz]

Seiya is bad now? What the hell. Hadn’t paid attention in probably 2 weeks.

 

.425 OPS and 30% K rate for the last 14 games or so. Adjustments are needed and I’m sure he’ll pull out of the tailspin eventually.

 

I think he's going through normal struggles but it looks really bad because it's against the roughest part of our schedule. Going back to the Rays series, here are our opponents ranks in pitcher strikeout rate:

 

Rays - 5th

Pirates - 25th

Braves - 10th

Brewers - 1st

White Sox - 4th

Dodgers - 3rd

Padres - 8th

 

There's a stretch in July that's going to come somewhat close, but for the offense this is the worst gauntlet of the season for the offense.

[mul21]

Hendricks stinks

 

His ERA over his last 18 starts is about double what his career ERA was before entering this stretch.

 

It’s beyond a slump at this point. He’s not putting the ball where he wants it.

 

He got very screwed by two hits that had a less than 70 mph exit velocity last night. He's out of that 6th inning with the game tied and a 4.5 ERA for the game if not for some terrible BABIP luck. I'll freely admit the dingers are a big problem, but he was mostly fine last night.

[squally1313]

Hendricks stinks

 

His ERA over his last 18 starts is about double what his career ERA was before entering this stretch.

 

It’s beyond a slump at this point. He’s not putting the ball where he wants it.

 

He got very screwed by two hits that had a less than 70 mph exit velocity last night. He's out of that 6th inning with the game tied and a 4.5 ERA for the game if not for some terrible BABIP luck. I'll freely admit the dingers are a big problem, but he was mostly fine last night.

 

He had 2 strikeouts. You let that many balls get in play, those types of things are going to happen. His BABIP for the game was .263.

[Bertz]

Kyle's deal is really weird. He's missing bats more than ever. Even if you exclude his first start of the year because reasons, the contact rates are still at his career averages. The scariest thing about him last year by far was that he just seemingly couldn't get a swing and miss to save his life for some reason.

 

But the groundball rate is way down, and the hard contact rate is way up. He's also throwing four seamers at a career high rate, which may explain both the added swing and miss and the extra damage when guys do connect.

 

I'd be selling my Kyle Hendricks stock right now, but there's enoughsilver linings that make it so I wouldn't be especially shocked if he's fine.

[squally1313]

Kyle's deal is really weird. He's missing bats more than ever. Even if you exclude his first start of the year because reasons, the contact rates are still at his career averages. The scariest thing about him last year by far was that he just seemingly couldn't get a swing and miss to save his life for some reason.

 

But the groundball rate is way down, and the hard contact rate is way up. He's also throwing four seamers at a career high rate, which may explain both the added swing and miss and the extra damage when guys do connect.

 

I'd be selling my Kyle Hendricks stock right now, but there's enoughsilver linings that make it so I wouldn't be especially shocked if he's fine.

 

Looking for positives…His velocity’s on pace to be a little hopefully significantly higher than last, CSW% and SwSt% are league average for SPs…Too lazy to check but maybe we’re seeing approach change similar to Stroman, FGs has the fastball (4S not sinker) as his most valuable pitch this year, both first pitch and called strikes are way down

 

I don’t know, don’t really have a problem with veterans like Stroman and Hendricks thinking more big picture if that’s the case. These guys don’t have so much to prove and would immediately find work with a better offense if made available so just keep them healthy and try some things until an offense shows up

 

I'm fully on the 'This is a Bad Team' train, but seems a little defeatist to write off Stroman/Hendricks not aiming for success when those two pitching like top 30 pitchers was really our main path to some sort of wild card contention. But if they're written off the offense already like some of us have...whatever. Get tickets in the bleachers and bring a glove* for Kyle's starts.

 

*Kidding, do not under any circumstances bring a glove to a baseball game.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think if you want the case for Hendricks optimism, it's in both his history and his current results. His recent results are bad, but not bad in a way that suggests the way he got hitters out before doesn't work any more. He's reliant on elite command, and he doesn't have that right now. His history also shows that more often than not, his worst month is at the beginning of the season, which logically checks out given that his feel and command should improve through repetition. That's not to say 'don't worry he's fine', his end of 2021 was bad and eventually age will rob him of margins that he previously needed, even in terms of consistent command. Maybe that means he goes from an ERA below 3.5 to above 5.5 in a snap. But I think you can also make the case that a feel-dependent pitcher who regularly has subpar starts to the season, coming off an abbreviated spring training after a lockout(and potentially adjusting to the new ball) has room for (significant) improvement that wouldn't be much of a surprise.

[UMFan83]

Seiya is bad now? What the hell. Hadn’t paid attention in probably 2 weeks.

 

.425 OPS and 30% K rate for the last 14 games or so. Adjustments are needed and I’m sure he’ll pull out of the tailspin eventually.

Didn’t Fukudome have a hot start then crash after a few weeks?

 

Yes, very Fukudomish but lots of players start hot and then go through adjustments. Suzuki is younger so he's still in his prime while Kosuke was I think 31 when he joined the Cubs...adjusting to heat is probably more difficult at that age than at age 27.

[UMFan83]

I have to wonder what the Ricketts are thinking. Are they proud of the product? Are they embarrassed? Do they care?

 

The Cubs are averaging 31k fans per game despite historically bad spring weather, low expectations, a lockout and while school is still going on. So I bet they are very happy with how things are going.

[squally1313]

I have to wonder what the Ricketts are thinking. Are they proud of the product? Are they embarrassed? Do they care?

 

The Cubs are averaging 31k fans per game despite historically bad spring weather, low expectations, a lockout and while school is still going on. So I bet they are very happy with how things are going.

How deep was the season ticket holder list like, a year ago? Buddy got the 'sorry' email last year that had him about 100,000 on the list, and got it again this year that said he was like 8,000. Meanwhile, I dropped my tickets but I'm still in the season ticket holder facebook group, and it's nothing but complaints about how they are being forced to sell their tickets for like, $6 on Stubhub. Can't imagine that holds up over a few year period.

[UMFan83]

I have to wonder what the Ricketts are thinking. Are they proud of the product? Are they embarrassed? Do they care?

 

The Cubs are averaging 31k fans per game despite historically bad spring weather, low expectations, a lockout and while school is still going on. So I bet they are very happy with how things are going.

How deep was the season ticket holder list like, a year ago? Buddy got the 'sorry' email last year that had him about 100,000 on the list, and got it again this year that said he was like 8,000. Meanwhile, I dropped my tickets but I'm still in the season ticket holder facebook group, and it's nothing but complaints about how they are being forced to sell their tickets for like, $6 on Stubhub. Can't imagine that holds up over a few year period.

 

Yeah i don't think he'd be ok with the Cubs being bad forever but the fact that he can charge the highest ticket prices in baseball (though to be fair they are a lot cheaper in April and May) and still fill almost 80% of the park despite the team being bad and people generally angry with the team says a lot about how inelastic the demand for Cubs tickets is. People may be less willing to buy an entire season up front, but go to Wrigley for a weekend game in the summer and there will be a minimum of 32k. Plus the Cubs payroll is about 2/3s of what it was 3 years ago, so if attendance is 80% of what it was in 2019 he still comes out on top (I think?).

[squally1313]

 

The Cubs are averaging 31k fans per game despite historically bad spring weather, low expectations, a lockout and while school is still going on. So I bet they are very happy with how things are going.

How deep was the season ticket holder list like, a year ago? Buddy got the 'sorry' email last year that had him about 100,000 on the list, and got it again this year that said he was like 8,000. Meanwhile, I dropped my tickets but I'm still in the season ticket holder facebook group, and it's nothing but complaints about how they are being forced to sell their tickets for like, $6 on Stubhub. Can't imagine that holds up over a few year period.

 

Yeah i don't think he'd be ok with the Cubs being bad forever but the fact that he can charge the highest ticket prices in baseball (though to be fair they are a lot cheaper in April and May) and still fill almost 80% of the park despite the team being bad and people generally angry with the team says a lot about how inelastic the demand for Cubs tickets is. People may be less willing to buy an entire season up front, but go to Wrigley for a weekend game in the summer and there will be a minimum of 32k. Plus the Cubs payroll is about 2/3s of what it was 3 years ago, so if attendance is 80% of what it was in 2019 he still comes out on top (I think?).

 

My thought, and maybe I'm misunderstanding how these numbers are being put together, is that a lot of the 31k so far (and hypothetical 32k this summer) are people scooping up $9 tickets on Stubhub from the full slate of season ticket holders, and it's my understanding that they ran through a huge portion of the season ticket wait list in this offseason between people dropping tickets and peoples name getting called and passing on buying them. It seems outrageous that would it would get to a point where there would be no wait list, not a full amount of season ticket holders, etc, but...maybe it wouldn't? Pretty much everyone knows how to use the secondary market websites now, and they're all seeing how cheaply they can go to the game if they use those and let STHs subsidize the Cubs for the rest of the ticket price. But those people showing up for $9 a ticket aren't going to walk up to the gate in a couple years and pay the face value if the thousands of season tickets available on Stubhub for every game starts to dry up.

[UMFan83]

How deep was the season ticket holder list like, a year ago? Buddy got the 'sorry' email last year that had him about 100,000 on the list, and got it again this year that said he was like 8,000. Meanwhile, I dropped my tickets but I'm still in the season ticket holder facebook group, and it's nothing but complaints about how they are being forced to sell their tickets for like, $6 on Stubhub. Can't imagine that holds up over a few year period.

 

Yeah i don't think he'd be ok with the Cubs being bad forever but the fact that he can charge the highest ticket prices in baseball (though to be fair they are a lot cheaper in April and May) and still fill almost 80% of the park despite the team being bad and people generally angry with the team says a lot about how inelastic the demand for Cubs tickets is. People may be less willing to buy an entire season up front, but go to Wrigley for a weekend game in the summer and there will be a minimum of 32k. Plus the Cubs payroll is about 2/3s of what it was 3 years ago, so if attendance is 80% of what it was in 2019 he still comes out on top (I think?).

 

My thought, and maybe I'm misunderstanding how these numbers are being put together, is that a lot of the 31k so far (and hypothetical 32k this summer) are people scooping up $9 tickets on Stubhub from the full slate of season ticket holders, and it's my understanding that they ran through a huge portion of the season ticket wait list in this offseason between people dropping tickets and peoples name getting called and passing on buying them. It seems outrageous that would it would get to a point where there would be no wait list, not a full amount of season ticket holders, etc, but...maybe it wouldn't? Pretty much everyone knows how to use the secondary market websites now, and they're all seeing how cheaply they can go to the game if they use those and let STHs subsidize the Cubs for the rest of the ticket price. But those people showing up for $9 a ticket aren't going to walk up to the gate in a couple years and pay the face value if the thousands of season tickets available on Stubhub for every game starts to dry up.

 

Aren't the attendance numbers based on paid tickets? I know back in the day the NL used to base it on gate attendance but I thought that changed (or maybe I have it in reverse)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Right, and if the season ticket base starts dwindling, there's gonna be less money going to the team(individual buyers paying less per seat for these weekday games than STH) and paid attendance goes down with it(since some individual buyers aren't paying the prices without that STH subsidy)

[Sammy Sofa]

 

Yeah i don't think he'd be ok with the Cubs being bad forever but the fact that he can charge the highest ticket prices in baseball (though to be fair they are a lot cheaper in April and May) and still fill almost 80% of the park despite the team being bad and people generally angry with the team says a lot about how inelastic the demand for Cubs tickets is. People may be less willing to buy an entire season up front, but go to Wrigley for a weekend game in the summer and there will be a minimum of 32k. Plus the Cubs payroll is about 2/3s of what it was 3 years ago, so if attendance is 80% of what it was in 2019 he still comes out on top (I think?).

 

My thought, and maybe I'm misunderstanding how these numbers are being put together, is that a lot of the 31k so far (and hypothetical 32k this summer) are people scooping up $9 tickets on Stubhub from the full slate of season ticket holders, and it's my understanding that they ran through a huge portion of the season ticket wait list in this offseason between people dropping tickets and peoples name getting called and passing on buying them. It seems outrageous that would it would get to a point where there would be no wait list, not a full amount of season ticket holders, etc, but...maybe it wouldn't? Pretty much everyone knows how to use the secondary market websites now, and they're all seeing how cheaply they can go to the game if they use those and let STHs subsidize the Cubs for the rest of the ticket price. But those people showing up for $9 a ticket aren't going to walk up to the gate in a couple years and pay the face value if the thousands of season tickets available on Stubhub for every game starts to dry up.

 

Aren't the attendance numbers based on paid tickets? I know back in the day the NL used to base it on gate attendance but I thought that changed (or maybe I have it in reverse)

 

It's gotta be paid tickets. The game I went to they were claiming that there were more than 28,000 people there....despite it spitting rain almost the whole time. Bulllllllllllllllll horsefeathers. There were MAYBE 20,000 people there at the most.

[UMFan83]

Right, and if the season ticket base starts dwindling, there's gonna be less money going to the team(individual buyers paying less per seat for these weekday games than STH) and paid attendance goes down with it(since some individual buyers aren't paying the prices without that STH subsidy)

 

Help me understand the bolded. Is this due to having ticket prices that change based on demand as opposed to set pricing while STH pay a flat rate for the entire season?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Right, and if the season ticket base starts dwindling, there's gonna be less money going to the team(individual buyers paying less per seat for these weekday games than STH) and paid attendance goes down with it(since some individual buyers aren't paying the prices without that STH subsidy)

 

Help me understand the bolded. Is this due to having ticket prices that change based on demand as opposed to set pricing while STH pay a flat rate for the entire season?

 

Simplistic made up example. STH pay $30/ticket for the whole season, right now individual buyers are getting them on the secondary market for $10. Fewer STH means less of those $10 tickets available, which the club prices at $20. That $20 can change to find the revenue maximizing point, but it's never going to hit $30 if the team is the same quality(which is assumed if STH decrease), so the team loses money. We also assume that the individual prices are never going to stoop so low as to hit $10(it's almost certainly better for revenue to have fewer people paying $20), so the total number in paid attendance will never reach the amount from before the STH decrease.

[squally1313]

Right, and if the season ticket base starts dwindling, there's gonna be less money going to the team(individual buyers paying less per seat for these weekday games than STH) and paid attendance goes down with it(since some individual buyers aren't paying the prices without that STH subsidy)

 

Help me understand the bolded. Is this due to having ticket prices that change based on demand as opposed to set pricing while STH pay a flat rate for the entire season?

 

Simplistic made up example. STH pay $30/ticket for the whole season, right now individual buyers are getting them on the secondary market for $10. Fewer STH means less of those $10 tickets available, which the club prices at $20. That $20 can change to find the revenue maximizing point, but it's never going to hit $30 if the team is the same quality(which is assumed if STH decrease), so the team loses money. We also assume that the individual prices are never going to stoop so low as to hit $10(it's almost certainly better for revenue to have fewer people paying $20), so the total number in paid attendance will never reach the amount from before the STH decrease.

 

Couple points here:

 

1. You guys probably knew this, but season tickets are still priced per game. Our draft would always charge people on an average ticket price/per game, but I know some people who charge per ticket. Think your overall point there still stands, that they can be more reflexive in season if attendance starts to lag vs STHs who paid everything up front.

2. I'm curious on the actual breakeven point once you start pricing that low, factoring in the price of beer/concessions, potential memorabilia, and whatever value you want to assign to recruiting future fans. Seems to be the most purely profitable part of the experience for them is taking the 15 seconds to pour a beer they paid 80 cents for and having someone swipe their credit card for $12.

[UMFan83]

Just googling more on this and I found an article from a couple years ago about the effect losing has on revenues. It's interesting:

 

https://www.blessyouboys.com/2020/5/18/20900958/mlb-baseball-detroit-tigers-economics-of-baseball-revenue-profit

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Help me understand the bolded. Is this due to having ticket prices that change based on demand as opposed to set pricing while STH pay a flat rate for the entire season?

 

Simplistic made up example. STH pay $30/ticket for the whole season, right now individual buyers are getting them on the secondary market for $10. Fewer STH means less of those $10 tickets available, which the club prices at $20. That $20 can change to find the revenue maximizing point, but it's never going to hit $30 if the team is the same quality(which is assumed if STH decrease), so the team loses money. We also assume that the individual prices are never going to stoop so low as to hit $10(it's almost certainly better for revenue to have fewer people paying $20), so the total number in paid attendance will never reach the amount from before the STH decrease.

 

Couple points here:

 

1. You guys probably knew this, but season tickets are still priced per game. Our draft would always charge people on an average ticket price/per game, but I know some people who charge per ticket. Think your overall point there still stands, that they can be more reflexive in season if attendance starts to lag vs STHs who paid everything up front.

2. I'm curious on the actual breakeven point once you start pricing that low, factoring in the price of beer/concessions, potential memorabilia, and whatever value you want to assign to recruiting future fans. Seems to be the most purely profitable part of the experience for them is taking the 15 seconds to pour a beer they paid 80 cents for and having someone swipe their credit card for $12.

 

Yeah there's a whole lot of complexity and pricing theory that we're bypassing in either direction. The people who would've paid $30 might be more willing to pay $10 if that's an option, there's a whole lot of dynamic profit maximizing/rent seeking changes you can do on different axes to minimize the downside. But to your larger point, if the team is uninspiring enough that season ticket holders are going down, you can be pretty confident that any changes made in response are defensive and hoping to minimize losses(to revenue, top line attendance, etc), so from a business standpoint it's unmistakably bad.

[CubinNY]

 

Help me understand the bolded. Is this due to having ticket prices that change based on demand as opposed to set pricing while STH pay a flat rate for the entire season?

 

Simplistic made up example. STH pay $30/ticket for the whole season, right now individual buyers are getting them on the secondary market for $10. Fewer STH means less of those $10 tickets available, which the club prices at $20. That $20 can change to find the revenue maximizing point, but it's never going to hit $30 if the team is the same quality(which is assumed if STH decrease), so the team loses money. We also assume that the individual prices are never going to stoop so low as to hit $10(it's almost certainly better for revenue to have fewer people paying $20), so the total number in paid attendance will never reach the amount from before the STH decrease.

 

Couple points here:

 

1. You guys probably knew this, but season tickets are still priced per game. Our draft would always charge people on an average ticket price/per game, but I know some people who charge per ticket. Think your overall point there still stands, that they can be more reflexive in season if attendance starts to lag vs STHs who paid everything up front.

2. I'm curious on the actual breakeven point once you start pricing that low, factoring in the price of beer/concessions, potential memorabilia, and whatever value you want to assign to recruiting future fans. Seems to be the most purely profitable part of the experience for them is taking the 15 seconds to pour a beer they paid 80 cents for and having someone swipe their credit card for $12.

In some respects, the ticket is a loss leader, but I think the value of the ticket is much higher than the value of the beer because the ticket isn't really exchanged for a durable/non-durable product. You want people at the game to buy stuff, but getting them at the game is the most valuable thing.