Bears Week 18 Against Who Cares

[WrigleyField 22]

Come on, this is basically the Pre-Offseason thread.

 

Okay they play the Vikings. I'll cheer for them to win since its always fun to beat a division rival and they can't finish in 2nd and get the harder schedule. A loss will bump up 4 of their picks, so if it happens it happens. If Fields plays, I hope he stays uninjured primarily and secondarily, I hope he throws for 400+ yards. No I'm not worried about him saving Nagy's job.

 

I've been intending to take some time off work to re-set and I think Black Monday and Tuesday are going to be great days to do that since I'll be glued to media when the Bears announce their firings and maybe restructure?

[WrigleyField 22]

Yea, so I'm just treating this as my primer for an offseason thread. And while we wait to see what happens GM and HC wise, its not too early to start obsessively looking at FA/Draft plans.

 

FA Strategy. (This was a good, though now slightly outdated primer https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2022-nfl-free-agency-primer-top-players-at-every-position)

 

I want the 2014-2017 Bears FA strategy back. Focus on younger, possibly ascending guys in that under-30 range. No old guys unless they're just filler 1 year pieces. Get some guys on Hicks-like deals, 2 year prove it deals along with a few longer deals on young ascending types. Guys will like the ability to get in FA market in 2024 with a new cap and that keeps the Bears cap situation flexible. A month ago I would have said splurge on a WR on a long deal, but the market has dried up with 2 major injuries to FA targets. So that has definitely shifted some of my thinking. They have an effective cap space of about $30M. But with some cuts and the ability to backload and restructure if necessary, my target is to spend about $50M in AAV in new money deals. That will still leave them plenty of money going into 2023 with only really one FA of note projected (once I extend Roquan below).

 

Cuts: Cohen, Goldman, Trevathan. Designate Trevathan and Goldmas as post June 1.

 

Offense

Non priority positions: QB, RB. I'll probably just stick with Foles as the $3M isn't that big of a savings. Grab a young PS piece as 3rd QB. RB room needs a Williams type 3rd RB at minimum salary

 

WR: With only Mooney under contract, they need to make some moves here. As noted, with the Godwin and Gallup injuries they lost 2 options to make a big splash. So I think they need to take the reclamation angle here and fill up on depth. a $2-3M target for a slot spot (maybe Grant as WR/PR?). Newsome as a 6th WR. Byrd/Goodwin or similar for a 5th WR spot at minimum again. And for the #2 spot next to Mooney, I'm targeting a $7M AAV. Will Fuller and Juju Smith-Schuster are two young injury reclamation candidates who should be ready week 1 (unlike Gallup/Godwin). Mike Williams (LAC) and Sammy Watkins (BAL) are two pretty known quantities that can fill in and catch some balls at a volume, but neither with great upside. And OBJ while not under 30 is an interesting option still. Of course they could also try for a guy like Gallup knowing they won't get him until later in the season, but sign to a 3-4 year incentive laden deal. Frankly, I'll hope to draft a WR in the 2nd/3rd, but you need contingencies and can't force it.

 

TE: While I originally was going to more or less roll cheaply here, the changes to the WR market and the need to get weapons for Fields I think warrants a consideration. And its a decent FA class. While I think Goedert and Gesicki won't hit the market and Gronk doesn't fit my youth movement, there should be some good depth, and I'd target about $5M for a U-TE to complement Kmet and give Fields another weapon. Njoku (CLE) and Engram (NYG) are young reclamation projects. Tonyan is a somewhat interesting piece GB will struggle to afford. I'd also bring back Horsted and get a minimum vet backup for Kmet.

 

OLine: I'm keeping Jenkins and Borom as the starting tackles and bring in a swing tackle vet for around $2-3M. Inside I want to replace Mustipher, but will bring him back as a ERFA and to be the 9th OL, backup C. RFA Tag Bars with the original round tender. If someone signs him, let him walk and replace with a Vet FA in the vein of Ifedi in 2020. For the last starting spot there's frankly lots of options. Daniels I would bring back on up to a 5/50 deal. While he hasn't quite played to that level yet, this is a projection deal. He'll be as young as some draft prospects and this deal could look cheap in years 3-5 with a coming cap explosion, even if he never becomes a pro-bowler. Whitehair is an iffy cut candidate to me. Despite the big dead cap number, he will be making $8M and looks to be on the decline. And it looks like a strong C/G class (although a couple names are off that above link already). That said, I'd target one spot at $5M which should get you a mid-range FA vet and upgrade to Mustipher. I'd also target $8M for a possible Whitehair replacement if I can get a younger, comparable player. If not, keep Whitehair for one year. This won't get them Jensen who's the top name, but a little older anyways. But maybe a guy like Allen from the Rams, who has a 81.1 PFF grade this year and is only 27. Guards include Williams (DAL), Corbett (LAR), Glowinski (IND) and either Whitehair or Daniels could be given serious consideration to bump back to C. Another vet FA G to fill out the 8th spot.

 

Defense

DL: Honestly this will go from a strong suit to a weakness, but its a bad FA class and I'm gonna place hope that whichever scout has helped us find good value DL sticks around. I'm targeting one $3M vet FA signing and possibly two(I'll explain below)

 

LB: Need something next to Smith, but not gonna break the bank. Another $3M vet FA slot here. Fill out some backups at vet min and they have the UDFA from last year Johnson as depth. I extend Roquan now. Probably a 80/4 extension (for a total of ~5/90). Quibble with that if you want, but I'm wiling to take that bet, especially with a rising cap. Assume it will set a high water mark for ILB contracts.

 

EDGE: Its set here. Roll back with Mack, Quinn, Gipson, Attaochu, Kamara (all under contract)

 

FLEX: Depending on if they stick with a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme, I think they can do either, but you are looking at the difference of an extra LB or extra DL basically. Another $3M spot here for a rotational LB or DL.

 

CB: This needs to be the other big splash area. I don't think they can justify a top 5 type CB, but a healthy $9M multi year contract should get them a starter quality guy. Darious Williams (LAR), JC Jackson (NE), Steven Nelson (PHI) are among the options. Graham penciled in as NB and maybe bring in an extra vet FA min or two. They can RFA tag Tebor and still have Shelley and Vildor under contract as well for depth.

 

S: Jackson has done enough to return. The S FA class looks deep, so I'd wait out the market and try and find a replacement level average starter with the vet minimum exception. Might as well pencil in DHC and Bush to once again return as backups at the minimum. This ended up a squeeze spot for me based on the market depth. Though I wouldn't mind seeing DHC given a real chance either.

 

Bring back O'Donnell and Scales for specialists.

 

Pre-draft that gives me a tentative 53 man roster like this. I played around with estimating these values on Over the cap calculator and still should have at least $50M in effective projected 2023 cap space, assuming those $3M are mostly one year deals (and that's without considering any additional cuts). And hopefully with many less spots to fill and only one major FA (Montgomery). So 2023 would be the year they can splash big for impact players to finish filling out a contender roster (Fields has to hit)

 

QB: Fields, Foles

RB: Montgomery, Herbert, FA Min

WR-X: FA $7M, FA Min

WR-Z: Mooney, FA Min

Slot: FA $3M , Newsome

TE-Y: Kmet, FA Min

TE-U: FA $5M, Horsted

LT: Jenkins, FA $3M

LG: FA $5M, Bars

C: Whitehair or $8M FA, Mustipher

RG: Daniels, FA Min

RT: Borom

 

DL: Blackson, Edwards, Tonga, FA $3M

LB: Smith, $3M FA, Johnson, FA Min

EDGE: Mack, Quinn, Gipson, Attaochu, Kamara

FLEX: FA $3M, FA Min, FA Min

CB: Johnson, Tabor

CB: FA $9M, Vildor

NB: Graham Jr, Shelley

FS: Jackson, Bush

SS: FA Min, DHC

 

Spec: Santos, O'Donnell, Scales

 

Will do a separate draft post.

Edited January 5, 2022 by WrigleyField 22

[WrigleyField 22]

Part II Draft. I ran it on PFN's simulator and included some of their scouting notes in italics as well as my own thoughts. No good trade down opportunities, so I stuck to just the 5 picks, which I'm fine with for mock purposes.

 

39. David Bell, WR Purdue

Just a beautiful alignment of value and need. As mentioned before, the WR FA class is now leaving something to lacking and Bell is a great prospect to add to the group of WR and TE I assembled above, as well as a hopeful long term block

 

When evaluating wide receivers, one important thing is physicality, and Bell is as physical as they come. He puts this to good use in contested-catch situations, where he routinely comes down with the ball. There were several examples of him snatching the ball away from the defensive back. Additionally, his physicality helps him gain additional yardage, as he is rarely taken down on the first contact.

 

73. Chad Muma, LB Wyoming

Learning about Muma and he sounds like a great fit next to Smith. 6'3" 242 and physical. Has some coverage skills (HS DB), but probably needs some work. But he can be a physical run stopping presence and free up Roquan to be a big play roaming LB in coverage and run.

 

The Wyoming linebacker has excellent ability to diagnose against the run. He reads the play well and is rarely wrong-footed. Furthermore, he can fill gaps to prevent big running plays. Muma also has decent sideline-to-sideline range, enabling him to chase down ball carriers. As a tackler, Muma is a heavy hitter. You don’t want to meet him in the alley. But, more than this, he is efficient. In the games studied, he allowed very few broken tackles.

 

147. Cade Mays, OG Tennessee

In reading up on him, I love that he is versatile (played 4/5 spots, but mostly RG). While it was great for the Bears to add two promising lineman and I'm hopeful to re-sign Daniels (UFA, 24) and have Mustipher (ERFA, 26) and Bars (RFA, 27) as young depth pieces, I'd love to add another young prospect to the mix. Value seemed to line up great here in the early 4th. That he could likely immediately contribute as a swing guy if he doesn't start is great at this stage in the draft.

 

At 6’6″ and 325 pounds, he has the requisite size to play guard or tackle in the NFL. He also plays the game with nastiness, looking to put his man on the ground at any opportunity.

 

Furthermore, he’s demonstrated strength in multiple ways. Mays is more than capable of taking a man out of the play with one powerful punch. The Tennessee guard also showcases impressive grip strength when he gets his hands on his man. Once he’s engaged, it’s rare to see his opponent break free from his vice-like grip. Mays also uses his lower body strength to anchor well when he gets set in pass protection....There is also an element of scheme versatility that will make Mays a valuable draft prospect. He spent time in a power-run offense at Georgia before transferring to a more zone-based scheme at Tennessee. With scheme fit a crucial part of the evaluation, Mays will increase his options at the next level.

 

149. Jalyn Armour-Davis, CB Alabama

Big 6'1" CB. Are we noticing a physicality them yet? Doesn't sound like a day 1 contributor, and maybe rides the pine most of his rookie year. I don't believe he's declared either and he may well opt to return and re-enter the draft next year. Reading the profile, a switch to safety doesn't sound out of the question either. Maybe he can play some jumbo dime/nickel off the bat, with Jackson bumping down to the slot.

 

The 6'1″, 192-pound cornerback often plays second fiddle to Josh Jobe in mock drafts, but I think Armour-Davis is actually the better prospect. Both are long coverage defenders, but Armour-Davis is more twitchy, fluid, and natural with his footwork. He's also less reckless from a physicality standpoint. If there is a knock on Armour-Davis, it's that he's not elite at producing on the ball. He has 2 interceptions and 2 pass deflections this year, with one of those picks coming last week against Tennessee. While it looks nice on the stat sheet, it was truly caused by a miscommunication between the QB and the WR. Armour-Davis can be more consistently proactive when in position. But already, he has the fluidity, short-range burst, and instincts to put himself in position more often than not.

 

188. Brian Robinson Jr., RB Alabama

Not gonna abandon physicality at this point! At 6'1" 225, he adds a nice size element to the RB group and hopefully helps make Montgomery expandable with a projected 2023 RB duo of Herbert/Robinson.

 

Listed at 6’1″, 225 pounds, Robinson has a dense, relatively high-cut frame. With this dense frame, Robinson shines as a physical back. He’s an aggressive finisher who uses his size to his advantage. He can lower his shoulder and grind out extra yards in short-yardage situations, and he can drag defenders with his steady leg drive through contact.

 

Robinson’s footwork is exceptionally coordinated and perhaps the primary meshing agent for his game. The Alabama RB churns his feet as he approaches holes and can utilize shuffles, stutter steps, and gallops to adjust his angle and set up runs. He can also kick his feet up to avoid arm tackles in the backfield and has a natural feel for staying upright.

 

Post draft projected 53 man

QB: Fields, Foles

RB: Montgomery, Herbert, Robinson Jr ®

WR-X: FA $7M, Bell ®

WR-Z: Mooney, FA Min

Slot: FA $3M , Newsome

TE-Y: Kmet, FA Min

TE-U: FA $5M, Horsted

LT: Jenkins, FA $3M

LG: FA $5M, Bars

C: Whitehair or $8M FA, Mustipher

RG: Daniels, Mays ®

RT: Borom

 

DL: Blackson, Edwards, Tonga, FA $3M

LB: Smith, $3M FA, Muma ®, Johnson

EDGE: Mack, Quinn, Gipson, Attaochu, Kamara

FLEX: FA $3M, FA Min

CB: Johnson, Armour-Davis ®, Tabor

CB: FA $9M, Vildor

NB: Graham Jr, Shelley

FS: Jackson, Bush

SS: FA Min, DHC

 

Spec: Santos, O'Donnell, Scales

[WrigleyField 22]

Another good FA primer that's slightly less dated and has contract estimates for top 75. Obviously many of these guys will never hit the market.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2022-free-agent-rankings-free-agency

 

Might need to revise some of my FA estimates. Might be a choice between a bigger money TE or WR. WR obviously makes more sense, but the TE market is potentially more interesting.

[WrigleyField 22]

[minnesotacubsfan]

Itttttts happening!!!

[minnesotacubsfan]

Itttttts happening!!!

[WrigleyField 22]

Itttttts happening!!!

Except it's sounding likely Pace is staying.

 

I'm gonna root for Pace's next 7 to improve from his first 7, but I'm not confident in it. If Fields is a hit, it will obviously help him a lot. But he needs to stop with overpaying old FAs. He has some Harvard guy who brought with him from the Saints all those years ago why isn't he his Moneyball guy lol.

 

It he can nail the HC hire, it will hopefully all work out.

[gflore34]

I'd sure like to see Fields light it up, there will be limitations, Nagy' coaching, lack of receivers who can make a play on a ball, etc. but, him putting up some big time numbers would sure be encouraging going into 2022.

 

I was watching a little of the Packers and Vikings Sunday night, I noticed not every ball Rogers throws is perfect, in fact a few were downright shitty however, he's got a guy in Adams who's able to go up and grab those crappy passes. This it what Justin needs, maybe it'll be Mooney, they've definitely got a find a play maker at receiver.

[jersey cubs fan]

I've been intending to take some time off work to re-set and I think Black Monday and Tuesday are going to be great days to do that since I'll be glued to media when the Bears announce their firings and maybe restructure?

I don't know why but my guess is they will take their sweet ole' time restructuring.

[Brian]

prediction based on nothing but the speculation that Pace was staying with the organization - Ted Phillips retires and Pace moves up to president

 

EDIT - and now after a google search I see in mid December there were reports that Ted has been talking about stepping away, so I like my prediction even better now.

[gflore34]

I've been intending to take some time off work to re-set and I think Black Monday and Tuesday are going to be great days to do that since I'll be glued to media when the Bears announce their firings and maybe restructure?

I don't know why but my guess is they will take their sweet ole' time restructuring.

 

Make perfect sense, if it's counter-intuitive, against the grain of common sense, the Bears will follow that path down the road of stupidity. It's their way.

[UMFan83]

prediction based on nothing but the speculation that Pace was staying with the organization - Ted Phillips retires and Pace moves up to president

 

EDIT - and now after a google search I see in mid December there were reports that Ted has been talking about stepping away, so I like my prediction even better now.

 

yep i think that's what happens. if the most recent reports are true, it seems like George is conflicted about Pace, really likes him but knows the organizational structure needs an overhaul. In the warped mind of Bears ownership this seems like a win-win. They keep Pace for big picture stuff, but hire a fresh mind for day to day GMing. I do think that this limits the quality of GM we can hire as Pace will likely still be seen as running the show (unless they make it clear he has little influence on day-to-day)

[WrigleyField 22]

prediction based on nothing but the speculation that Pace was staying with the organization - Ted Phillips retires and Pace moves up to president

 

EDIT - and now after a google search I see in mid December there were reports that Ted has been talking about stepping away, so I like my prediction even better now.

Pace would be a very unconventional hire as a President. Every single person with a Pres title in the NFL has more business accumen than him. Even Elway who got to Pres from a football side has at least owned several businesses, including a minor league team. Even Wright in WAS has an MBA and brief mgmt consulting career. Not to mention both those franchises are/were also owned by legit business people and not heirs. All other Presidents are owners or came up exclusively through the business side.

 

It's the NFL and its a money machine so I'm not gonna try and overstate the business job too much, but if that were really the case, I think it'd have to be under someone with more experience in business ops. Like Phillips sticking around as CEO for several years until Pace learns the business side.

 

But I really don't think thats the case. I think he stays on the football ops side. And if Ted is leaving, he'll be replaced by someone else and perhaps it will be a Cubs like structure with Kenney. In that scenario, Pace is still a de facto GM, but you've erased report lines to the business side. I'm not opposed to that org structure but I dont think the other setup is necessarily wrong. Having a business person who is primarily responsible for revenue/profit should act as a good guiding check on a GM who is mostly graded on W-L. It's just Phillips isn't the right guy. Nor is McCaskey which is kind of the role he then serves in.

 

So maybe it's a title bump for Pace, but that's really not a status quo change then, except perhaps it replaces some report lines. What would be interesting perhaps is McCaskey hiring someone else on the football ops side, either in an advisor role or strategy role, who Pace wouldn't report directly to, but would be a full time advisor to McCaskey and work with football ops on certain areas. However I think that's kind of a light job unless thst person has some other big overarching mission that isn't directly related to player acquisition. Like say someone tasked with enhancing analytics in the org. However since they supposedly are being consulted by Polian/Dungy I'll hold my breath on that.

[WrigleyField 22]

prediction based on nothing but the speculation that Pace was staying with the organization - Ted Phillips retires and Pace moves up to president

 

EDIT - and now after a google search I see in mid December there were reports that Ted has been talking about stepping away, so I like my prediction even better now.

 

yep i think that's what happens. if the most recent reports are true, it seems like George is conflicted about Pace, really likes him but knows the organizational structure needs an overhaul. In the warped mind of Bears ownership this seems like a win-win. They keep Pace for big picture stuff, but hire a fresh mind for day to day GMing. I do think that this limits the quality of GM we can hire as Pace will likely still be seen as running the show (unless they make it clear he has little influence on day-to-day)

I think it 100% limits the next GM. Only possible way is if it's an internal move, but even them I'm not convinced that guy wouldn't be able to be blocked from another teams GM job based on NFL tampering/hiring rules.

[jumbo]

Are we noticing a physicality them yet?

 

I wish I could give you more than one heart for these - thank you - great reads

 

If I was hiring the next coach I would expect physicality to be part of their answer when I asked what the team will look like. The kind of team that other teams groan when it's time to line up opposite because there's an ass beating coming win or lose. A Titans style offense would work really well for Fields. Fix the line, let draft pick RBs take the easy yards and set up the pass. Fields could be a beast throwing deep off PA or taking off against man coverage.

[jumbo]

What would be interesting perhaps is McCaskey hiring someone else on the football ops side, either in an advisor role or strategy role, who Pace wouldn't report directly to, but would be a full time advisor to McCaskey and work with football ops on certain areas. However I think that's kind of a light job unless thst person has some other big overarching mission that isn't directly related to player acquisition.

 

This is what the people demanding input from Alex Brown, Olin Kreutz, etc. are talking about - some football players who are in tune enough with the game to meet with McCaskey and co regularly and break down what they're seeing for him.

Like the Packers game when Jenkins came in and Nagy/Lazor went empty backfield 5-man protection - it makes no sense! Those guys could explain to George that decisions like this hurt the team in the game, in Jenkins' development, etc.

[WrigleyField 22]

Are we noticing a physicality them yet?

 

I wish I could give you more than one heart for these - thank you - great reads

 

If I was hiring the next coach I would expect physicality to be part of their answer when I asked what the team will look like. The kind of team that other teams groan when it's time to line up opposite because there's an ass beating coming win or lose. A Titans style offense would work really well for Fields. Fix the line, let draft pick RBs take the easy yards and set up the pass. Fields could be a beast throwing deep off PA or taking off against man coverage.

Thanks. Funny I didnt necessarily go in with a physicality mindset, but if I'm honest I do really value that in draft profiles. I still think there has to be a fair amount of projection and a guy has to have legit athletic tools, and there could be situation where tools outshine a lack of physicality, but the board just really ended lining up in a way I liked. And yea, especially with a questionable WR FA class, a physical style O is probably the Bears best bet in 2022, at least. Still want to find some speed because they suck at separation and Fields needs that, though I wonder how much of that struggle is scheme. Certainly they added some speed pieces and it didn't create extra separation this year.

 

After re-reviewing the PFF FA estimates and contemplating comp pick scenarios I'd probably revise all those $3M FA signings to ~1.8M which would avoid netting comp losses and maybe get them a late comp pick or two in 2023. That also frees up some extra TE or WR money that I definitely underallocated upon review. But still wanna limit any "above min" spending to about 50M AAV in new money (not counting Smith extension).

[WrigleyField 22]

What would be interesting perhaps is McCaskey hiring someone else on the football ops side, either in an advisor role or strategy role, who Pace wouldn't report directly to, but would be a full time advisor to McCaskey and work with football ops on certain areas. However I think that's kind of a light job unless thst person has some other big overarching mission that isn't directly related to player acquisition.

 

This is what the people demanding input from Alex Brown, Olin Kreutz, etc. are talking about - some football players who are in tune enough with the game to meet with McCaskey and co regularly and break down what they're seeing for him.

Like the Packers game when Jenkins came in and Nagy/Lazor went empty backfield 5-man protection - it makes no sense! Those guys could explain to George that decisions like this hurt the team in the game, in Jenkins' development, etc.

I mean, if it's coach oversight that 100% needs to come from the FO (unless you have a structure where the HC sits at the top of thr chain). If Pace cant/won't do that he's just not the right guy.

 

I'd prefer something in more of a strategic role if they went that route, again going back to analytics implementation as an idea. If it's just a senior advisory role it really is just a sounding board for McCaskey. And it doesn't have to be a former Bear. That's just PR.

[David]

 

 

if it somehow doesn't require draft capital of significance, go get him.

 

The bottom line is the New Orleans window closed when the right arm of Drew Brees died. Now they’re trying to stay afloat but repeating the 2021 season is all that appealing to anyone involved in the organization.

 

Another matter is Payton’s contract. When he signed his current contract in 2019, it was reported as an extension. However, Spotrac appears to have it listed as a new deal, which would expire following the 2022 season. (Coach contracts are often a mystery, but Spotrac is as trustworthy of a source as exists.) An extension will be costly. Do the Saints really want to pay $15 million per season to finish with eight wins every year? One of their most impressive wins this season came when Payton was sidelined with COVID-19 and Dennis Allen filled in.

 

Perhaps this would be a good time for both parties to shake hands and move on?

 

i guess i shouldn't be surprised that payton's contract status isn't clearly publicly known given that we have no idea what nagy and pace may or may not have gotten (i.e. the talk of the secret extensions)

Edited January 5, 2022 by David

[jersey cubs fan]

There is nothing official about Nagy being told he is gone. He denied it.

[Outshined_One]

There is nothing official about Nagy being told he is gone. He denied it.

 

Maybe they'll move him up to GM and Pace up to President of Football Operations.

 

I'm only half-kidding.

[Soul]

Payton would be great of course, but with someone like him, he doesn't have to take any job. He can consider the organization he'd be signing on to, and frankly the McCaskeys count as a negative.

[UMFan83]

There is nothing official about Nagy being told he is gone. He denied it.

 

Theory: Nagy knows that the McCaskeys hate to be scooped as evidenced when he was supposed to be fired before thanksgiving and then stayed on, so he leaked this report in hopes that the McCaskeys will say 'dammit we cant be scooped, now we have to keep Nagy"

[UMFan83]

 

I'd love it if he could ball out and we can go into the offseason with some momentum and good vibes (not to mention make us more attractive to HC candidates)

 

Since its the Bears he will throw 3 INTs and fumble twice and the only person that will take our job is Mike Zimmer.