2021 Offseason Thread

[CubinNY]

With the resources the Cubs have there isn’t a single reason why they shouldn’t be contending or trying to contend every year. Not one.

[Rob]

They both have certainly under preformed their contracts, but the complaint about Heyward is his offense. Since 2016 Heyward's OWar is 4.6, while Hosmer's is 10.1.

 

From 2018 to 2021, Eric Hosmer has hit .264/.323/.415, good for an OPS+ of 102 -- which is the same number Ian Happ and Jonathan Villar put up last season. That's an oWAR of 3.6 in four years, lower than Heyward's 4.6 over the same timeframe. His ground ball rate is 56.9%. He's not getting many barrels. He's not hitting the ball particularly hard. There's absolutely nothing about his performance that screams all-star DH. He's essentially a league average bat with no defensive value. We've already got plenty of those.

 

You can make his numbers look better if you go back to 2016 and 2017, like you did. And I'm perfectly happy to discuss that if you think there's actual relevance to his numbers in those years. But I'm having trouble seeing how that could be, outside of a generally applicable argument that a change of scenery could be helpful -- which is an argument I already conceded, and will concede for basically everybody who has ever had a track record of semi-recent success.

[cl smooth]

[Bertz]

While this roster leaves a lot to be desired, here are some things I really like about it

 

- There's a real diversity of offensive styles and approaches. Madrigal is the most extreme contact bats in the league. Wisdom one of the most extreme launch angle guys. Schwindel's power/contact profile is very unique. Frazier is one of the ~10 most patient guys in the league. Suzuki scouts and projects to have a phenomenal plate approach. Hoerner is a prolific all-fields hitter, etc. This group is not nearly as good as the one that just left, but that team every day ran out Rizzo, Baez, and six guys with essentially the same approach. That's one of the big theories behind their disappointing lack of consistency

 

- While there's a clear lack of top end talent, no one on the position player side except Frazier projects as bad (<1 WAR in full time play). Offensively, six guys project as average or better bats, while everyone except Simmons and Gomes project to at least a 90 wRC+, (meaning they're within 10% of being a league average bat). Simmons and Gomes obviously have defensive value to lean on, and three of the others (Hermosillo, Ramirez, Wisdom) are really liked by one projection system and really disliked by the other (so there's reasons for optimism but they come with wide error bars)

 

- Defensively the team is very strong. Schwindel sucks, but 1B defense is pretty marginal anyways. I'm also not sure there's a plus defensive CF on the roster. Hermosillo probably is, and Hoerner has the speed to be but not the experience. But everywhere else is very good. Contreras has gotten his framing up enough that his other skills make him plus behind the plate. Madrigal is good at second, Wisdom good at 3rd, Simmons still great at short. Suzuki is reportedly a plus or maybe even plus plus RF, and while Happ was a bit of a putz in CF should be plus in left. Keep Frazier purely at DH and this team will pick it

 

- I'm pretty nervous about the rotation. Not a ton that I'm excited about except for Stroman at the front and Kilian being a phone call away at Iowa

 

- I feel great about the pen. It's solid enough right now after all of the vets that were brought in, but then you have a phenomenal Iowa pen as well. Spend April-May working through the vets to see who still have it, and any that prove they're cooked get replaced by live arms from Iowa. This group is gonna absolutely shove by the summer

 

It's a very Oakland-y roster. Not a ton of star power, depth of high floor options, very strong defense.

Honestly, if Alzolay were healthy and Jed hadn't chickened out on the shortstops, I'd be pretty full throated in my praise.

[CubinNY]

With the Voit trade, it seems evident that something is going to have to shake loose from the Padres, no?

[Bertz]

 

I believe all of the signings so far can be accomadated by known 60 Day IL stints or obvious cuts (e.g. one of Ramirez or Hermosillo, Alcantara, etc.).

 

I believe this would take us past that point however. Not sure if there's another injury we don't know about or if trade(s) are coming.

[UMFan83]

“Property of the Cubs,” eh? Really cool

 

For his sake thank goodness he's white or Bruce Levine would have been put out to pasture.

[Derwood]

Braves sign Kenley Jansen

 

That was unexpected

[CubinNY]

So is this the team they start the season with?

[Bertz]

So is this the team they start the season with?

 

Pretty much, yeah. There doesn't appear to be a reason for the Padres to do a Hosmer deal anymore, and the Cubs have never been tied to Trevor Story. That's pretty much it as far as relevant players out there.

 

I'd expect up to three additional moves, any being pretty minor:

 

1. Another starter. The rumor yesterday was Smyly, so that's the tier we're talking. This seems the most likely

2. A LH platoon bat for 1B e.g. Colin Moran or Mitch Moreland

3. A small trade or two to clean up the back end of the roster e.g. an Alec Mills trade after they add the starter above

[Derwood]

 

why though?

[cl smooth]

 

EDIT: what's the knock against trevor story? doesn't take many walks? power comes and goes? coors effect?

[cl smooth]

[Bertz]

 

EDIT: what's the knock against trevor story? doesn't take many walks? power comes and goes? coors effect?

 

Coors + he sort of had the yips at the end last year. Though that was probably just a shoulder injury rather than any scary mental issue. Here are the terms

 

[cl smooth]

[UMFan83]

 

EDIT: what's the knock against trevor story? doesn't take many walks? power comes and goes? coors effect?

 

Coors + he sort of had the yips at the end last year. Though that was probably just a shoulder injury rather than any scary mental issue. Here are the terms

 

 

Haven’t we gotten over the concept of a Coors effect or is there a certain type of hitter that does not translate to playing for a team at sea level. We’ve seen several players now leave the Rockies and not see any sort of dramatic drop off in their numbers.

[Bertz]

 

EDIT: what's the knock against trevor story? doesn't take many walks? power comes and goes? coors effect?

 

Coors + he sort of had the yips at the end last year. Though that was probably just a shoulder injury rather than any scary mental issue. Here are the terms

 

 

Haven’t we gotten over the concept of a Coors effect or is there a certain type of hitter that does not translate to playing for a team at sea level. We’ve seen several players now leave the Rockies and not see any sort of dramatic drop off in their numbers.

 

Yeah I'd hope the Coors thing is mostly just fans and old school writers at this point. Going back to at least Matt Holliday every star who's left Coors has still been a star post Coors.

[Cubswin11]

 

Coors + he sort of had the yips at the end last year. Though that was probably just a shoulder injury rather than any scary mental issue. Here are the terms

 

 

Haven’t we gotten over the concept of a Coors effect or is there a certain type of hitter that does not translate to playing for a team at sea level. We’ve seen several players now leave the Rockies and not see any sort of dramatic drop off in their numbers.

 

Yeah I'd hope the Coors thing is mostly just fans and old school writers at this point. Going back to at least Matt Holliday every star who's left Coors has still been a star post Coors.

Arenando has seen a decent dip.

 

With Cardinals: .250/.310/.480 105 wRC+

 

With Rockies: .295/.351/.546 120 wRC+

[Tim]

Damn shame that.

[UMFan83]

 

Haven’t we gotten over the concept of a Coors effect or is there a certain type of hitter that does not translate to playing for a team at sea level. We’ve seen several players now leave the Rockies and not see any sort of dramatic drop off in their numbers.

 

Yeah I'd hope the Coors thing is mostly just fans and old school writers at this point. Going back to at least Matt Holliday every star who's left Coors has still been a star post Coors.

Arenando has seen a decent dip.

 

With Cardinals: .250/.310/.480 105 wRC+

 

With Rockies: .295/.351/.546 120 wRC+

 

Arenado already started to dip his last year in Colorado, albeit in the COVID season. He’s still a star though, I think he was like 4.5 wins last year, though much of that was fielding.

[Bertz]

 

Haven’t we gotten over the concept of a Coors effect or is there a certain type of hitter that does not translate to playing for a team at sea level. We’ve seen several players now leave the Rockies and not see any sort of dramatic drop off in their numbers.

 

Yeah I'd hope the Coors thing is mostly just fans and old school writers at this point. Going back to at least Matt Holliday every star who's left Coors has still been a star post Coors.

Arenando has seen a decent dip.

 

With Cardinals: .250/.310/.480 105 wRC+

 

With Rockies: .295/.351/.546 120 wRC+

 

I think wherever you pulled that data is off a bit (maybe including playoffs or ST or something?). FG and BR are showing him a little higher last year, .255/.312/.494. That's a 121 OPS+. And he was projected for a 117 going into last year:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2021-projections-colorado-rockies/

 

He's not quite the guy he was a few years ago, but he already showed that in 2020 with the Rockies.

[Backtobanks]

 

EDIT: what's the knock against trevor story? doesn't take many walks? power comes and goes? coors effect?

 

Coors + he sort of had the yips at the end last year. Though that was probably just a shoulder injury rather than any scary mental issue. Here are the terms

 

 

Haven’t we gotten over the concept of a Coors effect or is there a certain type of hitter that does not translate to playing for a team at sea level. We’ve seen several players now leave the Rockies and not see any sort of dramatic drop off in their numbers.

 

Wait until KB hits .380 with 72 HR.

[17 Seconds]

what stars have left colorado and been the same?

[Clem Fandango]

The only ones that do well go to St Louis

[17 Seconds]

The only ones that do well go to St Louis

 

holliday still had drop-off when he left coors, but that could have just been because of age