Darvish & Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies & 4 Rookie Ball Prospects

[Clem Fandango]

I feel like some of these guys being in or near our Top 10 is less of a qualifier for acquiring these prospects and more of an indictment on our system's depth. There's no reason you don't get a top 5 org prospect plus more for that haul.

[David]

I feel like some of these guys being in or near our Top 10 is less of a qualifier for acquiring these prospects and more of an indictment on our system's depth. There's no reason you don't get a top 5 org prospect plus more for that haul.

 

i don't think our system (pre-trade) is really all that bad.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I feel like some of these guys being in or near our Top 10 is less of a qualifier for acquiring these prospects and more of an indictment on our system's depth. There's no reason you don't get a top 5 org prospect plus more for that haul.

 

i don't think our system (pre-trade) is really all that bad.

 

does this trade improve it significantly or marginally?

 

 

 

bye Yu! I miss you already

[Bertz]

I feel like some of these guys being in or near our Top 10 is less of a qualifier for acquiring these prospects and more of an indictment on our system's depth. There's no reason you don't get a top 5 org prospect plus more for that haul.

 

It works both ways right? You can't say that them being in our top 10 is an indictment of our system and at the same time not acknowledge that not being in the Padres top 10 isn't an insult. This is precisely why some outlets have moved to the Future Value model, to make these comparisons more apples to apples.

[CoolHandLuke]

Preciado and Mena were part of the same international class as Quintero and Made, but were ranked a bit behind them both. Preciado's signing bonus was about the same as Made's and significantly less than Quintero's. Now, after playing very little baseball, the Padres duo seem to be ranked ahead of the Cubs. Can someone explain this to me? Is it possible for scouting opinions to change so much without games being played? Edited December 29, 2020 by CoolHandLuke

[Derwood]

I don't get the hate of Davies.

 

I also don't get the love of Caratini

[Backtobanks]

Don’t worry, it will all make sense when Davies puts together 3 ace-caliber months and we flip him for an epic haul.

 

Two words: Scott Feldman.

 

:beg:

 

Yeah, Hoyer will trade him plus another player for Arrieta and Strope at the deadline.

[David]

I don't get the hate of Davies.

 

I also don't get the love of Caratini

 

he's a nancy boy soft tosser and he's not kyle hendricks

 

what's there not to get

[David]

I feel like some of these guys being in or near our Top 10 is less of a qualifier for acquiring these prospects and more of an indictment on our system's depth. There's no reason you don't get a top 5 org prospect plus more for that haul.

 

i don't think our system (pre-trade) is really all that bad.

 

does this trade improve it significantly or marginally?

 

 

 

bye Yu! I miss you already

 

i'll leave that to the guys who actually know stuff.

 

i will say that since these guys are so young, there's likely a lot of variance in how they are projected. if we put some weight into logenhagen's assessment, that would seem to be a pretty good boost to the farm depth. unfortunately, you kinda needed to do more than boost the depth of the farm system with this trade.

[gflore34]

 

The trade looks MUCH better in this light. Eric has Preciado as a Top 100 guy, better than Ed Howard. Yeisson Santana is a 45 FB guy, meaning he'd be in the top 10 in a typical system. Ismael Mena is on the 40/45 line, depending on how reports of whether he can stick in CF shake out.

 

It's appalling how far away all these guys are, but it's looking more like the raw value is there at least.

 

 

But still, it doesn't read all that hopeful, there's nothing about any of them that jumps out plus they're eons away.

[Bertz]

Preciado and Mena were part of the same international class as Quintero and Made, but were ranked a bit behind them both. Preciado's signing bonus was about the same as Made's and significantly less than Quintero's. Now, after playing very little baseball, the Padres duo seem to be ranked ahead of the Cubs. Can someone explain this to me? Is it possible for scouting opinions to change so much without games being played?

 

It's a few things:

 

- Signing bonuses aren't always linear. They're agreed to when kids are 14/15, and finalized at 16. Sometimes the $1M 14 year old develops a little better than the $3M one. So while the huge money kids are almost always still the top kids in the class, the order can get fudged a bit in that intervening period

- When going from amateur to professional ball, you change to an almost entirely new ecosystem of scouts. That's how you get like Nico Hoerner going from being a 40th-ish ranked draft prospect to a top 100 overall guy after 6 weeks in short season ball

- In this case specifically, the only place they've been seen since March was the instructional league in October. Longenhagen lives near there, so luckily he has actually seen 3/4 of these guys in the last few months. So while I typically value Keith Law's or Jim Callis' opinion more, I think Eric's opinion holds much more weight currently

[gflore34]

Preciado and Mena were part of the same international class as Quintero and Made, but were ranked a bit behind them both. Preciado's signing bonus was about the same as Made's and significantly less than Quintero's. Now, after playing very little baseball, the Padres duo seem to be ranked ahead of the Cubs. Can someone explain this to me? Is it possible for scouting opinions to change so much without games being played?

 

It's a few things:

 

- Signing bonuses aren't always linear. They're agreed to when kids are 14/15, and finalized at 16. Sometimes the $1M 14 year old develops a little better than the $3M one. So while the huge money kids are almost always still the top kids in the class, the order can get fudged a bit in that intervening period

- When going from amateur to professional ball, you change to an almost entirely new ecosystem of scouts. That's how you get like Nico Hoerner going from being a 40th-ish ranked draft prospect to a top 100 overall guy after 6 weeks in short season ball

- In this case specifically, the only place they've been seen since March was the instructional league in October. Longenhagen lives near there, so luckily he has actually seen 3/4 of these guys in the last few months. So while I typically value Keith Law's or Jim Callis' opinion more, I think Eric's opinion holds much more weight currently

 

Isn't troublesome that they've got to be framed in a such a manner to put any positive spin on them? Doesn't it mean there's a long shot to none they'll amount to anything?

Edited December 29, 2020 by gflore34

[Derwood]

I don't get the hate of Davies.

 

I also don't get the love of Caratini

 

he's a nancy boy soft tosser and he's not kyle hendricks

 

what's there not to get

 

His numbers are goodish so :dontknow:

[minnesotacubsfan]

I don't get the hate of Davies.

 

I also don't get the love of Caratini

 

he's a nancy boy soft tosser and he's not kyle hendricks

 

what's there not to get

 

His numbers are goodish so :dontknow:

 

YOU CANT BE A NANCY BOY SOFT TOSSER AND AND NOT BE KYLE HENDRICKS DUH

 

I don't like the idea of replacing Darvish with Davies in the rotation, but overall Davies isn't a complete dumpster fire

[Bertz]

Preciado and Mena were part of the same international class as Quintero and Made, but were ranked a bit behind them both. Preciado's signing bonus was about the same as Made's and significantly less than Quintero's. Now, after playing very little baseball, the Padres duo seem to be ranked ahead of the Cubs. Can someone explain this to me? Is it possible for scouting opinions to change so much without games being played?

 

It's a few things:

 

- Signing bonuses aren't always linear. They're agreed to when kids are 14/15, and finalized at 16. Sometimes the $1M 14 year old develops a little better than the $3M one. So while the huge money kids are almost always still the top kids in the class, the order can get fudged a bit in that intervening period

- When going from amateur to professional ball, you change to an almost entirely new ecosystem of scouts. That's how you get like Nico Hoerner going from being a 40th-ish ranked draft prospect to a top 100 overall guy after 6 weeks in short season ball

- In this case specifically, the only place they've been seen since March was the instructional league in October. Longenhagen lives near there, so luckily he has actually seen 3/4 of these guys in the last few months. So while I typically value Keith Law's or Jim Callis' opinion more, I think Eric's opinion holds much more weight currently

 

Isn't troublesome that they've got to be framed in a such a manner to put any positive spin on them? Doesn't it mean there's a long shot to none they'll amount to anything?

 

Even the glass half full take on this trade is "these guys are nice but man are they far away." I'm not too worried about media spin or anything like that. Especially since we know Eric Longenhagen is the primary source on his own reports (at least for the 3 Latin kids). If a second-hand source like Jim Callis' or Keith Law was giving us positive spin, I'd be a lot more worried that the info was being colored by like Jason McLeod or someone else in the Cubs' FO.

[Clem Fandango]

I don't get the hate of Davies.

 

I also don't get the love of Caratini

 

he's a nancy boy soft tosser and he's not kyle hendricks

 

what's there not to get

 

His numbers are goodish so :dontknow:

 

You could argue he's a Hendricks type who uses contact and accuracy to his advantage, but in reality, he had a hot first half of 2019, then reverted back to the backend starter he's been, then got traded to the greatest pitchers park in baseball and put up career-best numbers over 12 starts. His positive results are suspect and hard to take seriously due to the sample size of this season. It's hard to tell which pitcher he truly is, but he doesn't throw hard at all and he's not like Hendricks who doesn't walk a lot of batters. Davie's 2020 BB/9 would've been bottom 40 in MLB for worst in 2019. And his BB/9 the two years before that was even worse. He also doesn't typically go deep into ballgames.

 

He's just Bizarro-Hendricks. If you squint you might say they look the same, but they're really not.

[David]

I don't get the hate of Davies.

 

I also don't get the love of Caratini

 

he's a nancy boy soft tosser and he's not kyle hendricks

 

what's there not to get

 

His numbers are goodish so :dontknow:

 

he's perfectly cromulent. he's just lame and boring.

[Bertz]

I don't get the hate of Davies.

 

I also don't get the love of Caratini

 

he's a nancy boy soft tosser and he's not kyle hendricks

 

what's there not to get

 

His numbers are goodish so :dontknow:

 

Devil's Advocate Post:

 

2020:

 

Yu Darvish - 76 IP, 2.01 ERA

Zach Davies - 69.1 IP, 2.73 ERA

 

2019-2020:

 

Yu Darvish - 254.2 IP, 3.39 ERA

Zach Davies - 229 IP, 3.30 ERA

 

2018-2020:

 

Yu Darvish - 294.2 IP, 3.60 ERA

Zach Davies - 295 IP, 3.60 ERA

 

2017-2020:

 

Yu Darvish - 481.1 IP, 3.70 ERA

Zach Davies - 486.1 IP, 3.74 ERA

 

I don't actually think Davies is anywhere near as good as Darvish, but it's kinda remarkable how similar the top line results are for both guys.

[David]

Oh yeah and speaking of the Cubs' FO...this move strikes me as more Kantrovitz than anyone else in the FO. He was brought in largely on the strength of his draft and amateur models, especially for younger prospects, and we're basically one literal 2020 HS draft pick and two guys who'd be among the youngest HSers in the 2020 draft. Santana and Davies maybe less Kantrovitz, but there's an obvious analytical angle on each

 

kinda thought the same, tbh

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Yeah, but how many wins, holds, and saves did they have in those seasons?

[gflore34]

 

he's a nancy boy soft tosser and he's not kyle hendricks

 

what's there not to get

 

His numbers are goodish so :dontknow:

 

Devil's Advocate Post:

 

2020:

 

Yu Darvish - 76 IP, 2.01 ERA

Zach Davies - 69.1 IP, 2.73 ERA

 

2019-2020:

 

Yu Darvish - 254.2 IP, 3.39 ERA

Zach Davies - 229 IP, 3.30 ERA

 

2018-2020:

 

Yu Darvish - 294.2 IP, 3.60 ERA

Zach Davies - 295 IP, 3.60 ERA

 

2017-2020:

 

Yu Darvish - 481.1 IP, 3.70 ERA

Zach Davies - 486.1 IP, 3.74 ERA

 

I don't actually think Davies is anywhere near as good as Darvish, but it's kinda remarkable how similar the top line results are for both guys.

 

They are however, is there any doubt Davies is going to be obliterated as a Cub? He's going from one the best pitcher' parks in baseball to Wrigley Field, at times, it can be pitcher' park but, on those days when the wind is blowing out and minimizing contact is in order not a good environment for Davies' to be successful.

[Derwood]

His HR/9 numbers are good.

[minnesotacubsfan]

 

His numbers are goodish so :dontknow:

 

Devil's Advocate Post:

 

2020:

 

Yu Darvish - 76 IP, 2.01 ERA

Zach Davies - 69.1 IP, 2.73 ERA

 

2019-2020:

 

Yu Darvish - 254.2 IP, 3.39 ERA

Zach Davies - 229 IP, 3.30 ERA

 

2018-2020:

 

Yu Darvish - 294.2 IP, 3.60 ERA

Zach Davies - 295 IP, 3.60 ERA

 

2017-2020:

 

Yu Darvish - 481.1 IP, 3.70 ERA

Zach Davies - 486.1 IP, 3.74 ERA

 

I don't actually think Davies is anywhere near as good as Darvish, but it's kinda remarkable how similar the top line results are for both guys.

 

They are however, is there any doubt Davies is going to be obliterated as a Cub? He's going from one the best pitcher' parks in baseball to Wrigley Field, at times, it can be pitcher' park but, on those days when the wind is blowing out and minimizing contact is in order not a good environment for Davies' to be successful.

He's spent more time in Milwaukee fwiw, and pitched against a Cubs team full of power hitters in that time

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Doug is early-puberty Caillou so that completely checks out and is extremely on brand. Quality whiny Tom post. This trade sucks ass.

[SouthSideRyan]

Doug is early-puberty Caillou

 

How horsefeathering dare you