Week 8: Chicago BEARS vs. New Orleans Saints, 3:25 local time (FOX)

[raw]

Time to move on from the disaster from Monday Night. The Bears had a few similar stinkers in 2019 and each time came back with less of a stinker and an ugly win to get some positive vibes going or something.

 

3-10 L vs. Green Bay in the opener, came back with an ugly literal last second win against the Broncos.

7-17 L vs. LA Rams mid-season, came back with an ugly 19-14 win against the Giants.

3-26 L vs. KC Chiefs late in the year, came back with a boring 21-19 win against the Vikings backups in the finale.

 

Problem is this time, they aren't going into a game against an inferior team or one playing backups intentionally. The Saints come to town with an offense that has put up 30 points per game while missing a top 3 WR in the league for all but 1 of their games. Their defense is allowing 29 per game, though it doesn't seem likely that the Bears are capable of doing much about that.

 

Luckily for the Bears, Michael Thomas is still going to be missing from the Saints offense which is a welcomed sign after his 9-131 performance in this game last year. Emmanuel Sanders' status is up in the air as he's on the COVID list. Sunday would be the first day he could come back, but it would also be without any practice before hand. Unluckily, Alvin Kamara will be playing and he missed the game last year (as did Drew Brees). Kamara is their leading receiver with the same number of receptions as the next 2 leading receivers and 150+ more yards than the next guy. But Brees will throw to any and everybody, spreading the ball around, which the Rams had success with.

 

When the Bears have the ball, they are going to be facing another decent run D. But the Bears won't and shouldn't try to run much anyway because the Saints pass D isn't very good. They aren't good on 3rd downs (29th). And they are the worst team at stopping teams in the redzone. Their previously very good DBs (Marshon Lattimore and Marcus Williams) aren't playing very well right now. They aren't great at rushing the passer, but then again neither was Leonard Floyd for 4 years until he faced the Bears OL.

 

Weather will be on the Bears side as it will be kinda cold and windy for a dome team on the road. But they are simply the inferior team in this matchup and don't have the short week on their side for this one. 6-2 would ease most of the angst surrounding this team as playoffs would be a near certainty. 5-3 would likely take them from the NFC's #1 seed last Monday morning, to potentially out of a projected playoff spot by this coming Monday.

[jumbo]

I can't see this team beating the Saints.

 

Almost certain losses:

Saints, Titans, Packers, Packers

 

Almost certain wins:

Jaguars

 

Toss Ups:

Vikings, Lions, Texans, Vikings

 

If they go 3-1 in the toss ups, that's 9-7

[raw]

I can't see this team beating the Saints.

 

Almost certain losses:

Saints, Titans, Packers, Packers

 

Almost certain wins:

Jaguars

 

Toss Ups:

Vikings, Lions, Texans, Vikings

 

If they go 3-1 in the toss ups, that's 9-7

 

On paper, I would agree. But Packers week 17 could be pretty meaningless for them (though they could try to keep the Bears out of the playoffs). The Vikings are probably the best of the "bad" teams on paper, but they have either blown leads or comeback for a lot of their games, IIRC. The Bears have beat them 4 straight under Nagy, and I'd like to think those are easier than tossups if this Bears teams hopes to compete, but I could definitely see a split in those games. The Texans had better not be a toss up. They are terrible and likely to get worse as they potentially trade people away to try and get cap space and draft picks, which they have little of either for 2021.

 

9-7 was thought to be good enough for 7th seed, but that would make things interesting. Assuming TB, GB and whoever wins the NFC East are in. That leaves 4 spots for Arizona, Seattle, SF, LA Rams, Saints, and the Bears. The Bears having 2 losses to the only of those teams they face won't bode well, and that doesn't even mention the Lions who seem about as capable as the Bears.

[WrigleyField 22]

I can't see this team beating the Saints.

 

Almost certain losses:

Saints, Titans, Packers, Packers

 

Almost certain wins:

Jaguars

 

Toss Ups:

Vikings, Lions, Texans, Vikings

 

If they go 3-1 in the toss ups, that's 9-7

The Packers and Saint's have bad enough pass defenses, that I really don't think its fair to say those are almost certain losses. I don't know what the Bears are going to do about Henry and they have a decent enough D, so I'm okay chalking that up to a L.

 

Now I actually don't think 9-7 is an unrealistic expectation, but the Bears D is probably good enough to carry them a few wins alone, so it really comes down to whether the offense can be consistent or not (even if they're consistently below average). 8-8 is probably my floor, but I don't think 11-5 would be crazy shocking because they've got a lot of house money with their early wins they've squeaked out, and a couple bounces or two can quickly lead to that 2-3 W spread. IF they do go 11-5 I'm already ready to call them the worst 11-5 team ever though.

[raw]

I can't see this team beating the Saints.

 

Almost certain losses:

Saints, Titans, Packers, Packers

 

Almost certain wins:

Jaguars

 

Toss Ups:

Vikings, Lions, Texans, Vikings

 

If they go 3-1 in the toss ups, that's 9-7

The Packers and Saint's have bad enough pass defenses, that I really don't think its fair to say those are almost certain losses. I don't know what the Bears are going to do about Henry and they have a decent enough D, so I'm okay chalking that up to a L.

 

Now I actually don't think 9-7 is an unrealistic expectation, but the Bears D is probably good enough to carry them a few wins alone, so it really comes down to whether the offense can be consistent or not (even if they're consistently below average). 8-8 is probably my floor, but I don't think 11-5 would be crazy shocking because they've got a lot of house money with their early wins they've squeaked out, and a couple bounces or two can quickly lead to that 2-3 W spread. IF they do go 11-5 I'm already ready to call them the worst 11-5 team ever though.

 

Other than points per game (where they are the best of the 3), the Titans actually have the worst defense of the 3. Worst pass D and run D the Bears will face all season until the Texans.

[raw]

Allen Robinson is in concussion protocol. Obviously on short week, the Bears could be without him on Sunday. So that's fun.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I can't see this team beating the Saints.

 

Almost certain losses:

Saints, Titans, Packers, Packers

 

Almost certain wins:

Jaguars

 

Toss Ups:

Vikings, Lions, Texans, Vikings

 

If they go 3-1 in the toss ups, that's 9-7

The Packers and Saint's have bad enough pass defenses, that I really don't think its fair to say those are almost certain losses. I don't know what the Bears are going to do about Henry and they have a decent enough D, so I'm okay chalking that up to a L.

 

Now I actually don't think 9-7 is an unrealistic expectation, but the Bears D is probably good enough to carry them a few wins alone, so it really comes down to whether the offense can be consistent or not (even if they're consistently below average). 8-8 is probably my floor, but I don't think 11-5 would be crazy shocking because they've got a lot of house money with their early wins they've squeaked out, and a couple bounces or two can quickly lead to that 2-3 W spread. IF they do go 11-5 I'm already ready to call them the worst 11-5 team ever though.

 

with that schedule, I'd say 9-7 is our ceiling, 6-10 isnt out of the realm of possibilities and 8-8 or 7-9 seems likely. But I'm optimistic.

[WrigleyField 22]

Other than points per game (where they are the best of the 3), the Titans actually have the worst defense of the 3. Worst pass D and run D the Bears will face all season until the Texans.

Well the Bears kind of suck at running, so I'm more concerned about the opponents pass D's honestly. The Bears will run well only if they can open up the passing game... that's looking apparent to me.

 

Quick analysis, but based on defense pass rating;

https://www.nfl.com/stats/team-stats/defense/passing/2020/reg/all

Current defense passer rankings;

Texans; 32nd

Saints; 30th

Vikings x 2; 29th

Packers x2; 28th

Jaguars; 27th

Lions and Titans around middle of the pack.

Through 7 games maybe there's still some noise working its way through passer rating, but even if you look at other defense pass stats like Y/A, Saints, Packers, Vikings, Texans all look weak.

 

If we jump into advanced and go DVOA

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-defense/2020

Team - Pass Rank- Run Rank - Total Rank

Saints - 16 - 4 - 9

Packers - 20 - 22 - 24

Vikings - 15 - 20 - 18

Jaguars - 32 - 24- 32

Lions - 14 - 23 - 17

Texans - 24 - 27 - 27

Titans - 19 - 16 - 19

Per the link, the opponent strength adjustment is currently at 70% until week 10. Compared to IND-TB-LAR, those are still top D's overall and especially pass D (top 3 for that first two), still top 10 for LA. So all these teams still represent relative steps down for the pass O to get something going.

 

So comparing the two lists, perhaps the Saints poor Pass D is a reflection of game situation (teams catching up), and if DVOA is right about their run D, that's going to be tough to do anything against. The rest of the teams though... all pretty much bad D's. So I guess there's just a lot of Great O v Great D and Bad O v Bad D games to look forward to. But Bad pass D's can lead to a lot less predictability overall.

[NOLA]

A little deeper dive into the Saints...

 

As you said raw, the run D is solid and the pass D is pretty rough, but it’s mistakes that have haunted them. Marcus Williams at S has been a disaster, biting on the wrong receivers, blowing assignments and giving up wide open big plays. Like, at least one a game, every week. That, plus there’s been a ton of PI calls on 3rd downs. Lattimore at CB has been disappointing, but he and Jenkins at the other CB have rarely been on the field at the same time this year, so I’m anxious to see if things improve. Davenport at DE finally being healthy is a huge boost to the pass rush as Cam Jordan was getting doubled 45% of plays, leading the league until last week.

 

On offense, Marquez Callaway is looking pretty good stepping in for Thomas. The cold weather thing isn’t a factor anymore with the Saints. As Drew’s gotten older, they’re a running, screen and short pass, move the chains kind of team-just pretty good at it. OL has been a bright spot and Drew’s best game by far was last week.

[NOLA]

[minnesotacubsfan]

Is Poe good at stuffing the run?

 

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30214145/dallas-cowboys-release-dontari-poe-due-weight-performance

[raw]

Is Poe good at stuffing the run?

 

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30214145/dallas-cowboys-release-dontari-poe-due-weight-performance

 

Dontari Poe isn't good at anything. I saw something on Twitter yesterday that graded him as the worst run defender and pass rusher of NFL d-linemen.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Nvm then

[BigbadB]

Maybe Houston and Minny gut their teams even more at the trade deadline. However, needing teams to gut their roster prior to playing them isn't really speaking with much confidence in the Bears to be a threat even if they make it to the playoffs.

[WrigleyField 22]

Relevant 538 article in advance of this week's game.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/drew-brees-almost-never-throws-deep-anymore-is-that-a-problem-for-the-saints/

 

So these short passes are basically an extension of the run game and the Bears suck against the run. The awesome coverage of Fuller, Johnson, Jackson, and Gipson is limited if they're just dinking it and dunking it anyways.

 

Is this a week for a lot of big dime and a big nickel package? The thought of Danny T possibly getting stuck out on a island with Kamara grabbing short passes sounds like a terrible idea. Play lots of Bush, and switch Jackson up more at the line. Hell, maybe they can run the 46, but with an extra safety in for Danny T.

[NOLA]

Emmanuel Sanders will still be out Sunday. Michael Thomas practiced today.

[raw]

Michael Thomas practiced for the Saints today (as NOLA said). Meanwhile, Robinson, Whitehair and oh, Khalil Mack have yet to practice this week. Whitehair has sucked all year. I'm kinda morbidly interested in the offense without Robinson. But the defense without Mack is just asking for a 34-16 beatdown.

[raw]

Michael Thomas is OUT

Cody Whitehair is OUT

Allen Robinson is DOUBTFUL. The Bears initially said he was questionable, but he's still in concussion protocol at least until Saturday. If he passes, he could play. But league rules mandate that he be considered doubtful because he hasn't passed concussion protocol yet.

Khalil Mack limited in practice today, he's Questionable

[raw]

And Marquez Callaway is OUT for New Orleans. Was their top WR last week.

[minnesotacubsfan]

And Marquez Callaway is OUT for New Orleans. Was their top WR last week.

Not that it means much, Brees spreads the ball around like he's horsefeathering Santa Claus on Xmas eve

[raw]

And Marquez Callaway is OUT for New Orleans. Was their top WR last week.

Not that it means much, Brees spreads the ball around like he's horsefeathering Santa Claus on Xmas eve

 

Yeah, but he'll be spreading it around to RBs and TEs and a backup QB. OF course, this could play against the Bears as they typically are pretty good at covering WRs. They've been good at covering TEs this year too, but lack of WRs means lack of spread formations and more Danny Trevathan on the field where he can be taken advantage of in the pass game.

[raw]

Allen Robinson cleared concussion protocol and will play tomorrow. Uh wow.

 

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

[minnesotacubsfan]

This is a game the Bears have no business winning, but with all the injuries on the Saints side and Robinson playing, Mack likely too, they have a legit shot at pulling it off

[BigbadB]

Allen Robinson cleared concussion protocol and will play tomorrow. Uh wow.

 

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

 

Even though the Bears give him no incentive to play. It's not looking good for an extension.

[NOLA]

This is a game the Bears have no business winning, but with all the injuries on the Saints side and Robinson playing, Mack likely too, they have a legit shot at pulling it off

The Bears absolutely have a chance to win. Saints D isn’t going to allow them to run away from anyone. If Chicago gets enough big plays, the Saints weakness, they can win.