2020 Offseason Thread

[Cubswin11]

 

Good is probably a strong word for the SP market, but certainly much less bad than expected. At least so far.

Yeah these early numbers have been decent. I still think there’s going to be a lot of guys who have to take 1 year deals in the $3-8 mil range and there will be good bargains for us to wait it out. Assuming Chatwood is healthy (don’t know if he ever had a surgery) I wouldn’t mind him back on a cheap/make good deal.

[Cubswin11]

Yeah, the owners have used the cover of a handful of deals over the years to hide how bad FA has gotten. This is no different, only instead of say Machado and Harper getting $300+ million, 2/$18 and 1/$11 is good enough. They're still going to reset records on MiL deals, split contracts, and non-guaranteed money this offseason

I mean of the pitchers signed who should’ve gotten significantly more? The numbers all seem pretty good (some seem to have exceeded my expectations and others on the board) given their age, injury risk, recent and expected performance, etc. Morton is 37 and wanted to stay close to home, Ray has been average to bad the last 3 years with major control issues, Smyly has thrown like 120 innings since 2016 with mixed results and looks more like a pen/swing man type player now, Minor has been average the last few years, is 33 and saw a velo drop this year. I think they all got pretty healthy amounts for what they are and where the market is.

[Backtobanks]

Diamondbacks assistant GM Jared Porter “is the heavy favorite” to become the Cubs’ next general manager, according to The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma (subscription required). Newly-minted Chicago president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has stated that he wants to make an external hire for the GM job in order to bring a fresh viewpoint into the Cubs’ front office, though Porter is still a known quantity, having previously worked with Hoyer in both Chicago and Boston. Other speculative general manager possibilities for the Cubs include another Diamondbacks AGM in Amiel Sawdaye, as well as former Marlins president of baseball ops Michael Hill.

 

I've got nothing against Porter personally, the D'Backs' first 5 prospects on MLB.com are all possible beasts and they seem smart, but would still be disappointed for other reasons. Epstein talked about adding diversity to this FO, not just low hanging fruit like race but maybe just maybe moving away from these white guys from rich or wealthy families living in rich or wealthy parts of the country who attended highly exclusive schools that track their students for the most exclusive, high reward, low risk jobs *extremely* early in life. Porter would, in that sense, be more of the same.I just don't think it's a coincidence that, as FOs and baseball in general filled up jobs with these same-ish people, revenues exploded with more and more and more and more and more of it going to the top

 

While diversity is certainly a goal, most executives are going to hire the "known" factor of success in the current crop of available candidates. This is especially true of teams that consider themselves contenders.

[Backtobanks]

On a less crazy note, just want to point out:

 

Victor Caratini career numbers: 88 wRC+, 88.6 EV, 21.4% K rate

Average ML catcher since 2015: 86 wRC+, 87.6 EV, 23.6% K rate

 

Should note that his career EV is the same as Contreras but with a 2% lower K rate and from a switch hitter...I was trying to convince myself the Cubs shouldn't try and trade Contreras but yeah, still seems like the most obvious thing they can do without killing the club due to having a qualified guy to bump up

 

Or point out these stats to other teams (along with his contract status) and tell them to offer a Contreras-type package for Vic.

[Cubswin11]

I think Vic is closer to the hitter he was in 2018 and 2020 (still above average backup) than where he was in 2019. If a team values him as a top ~5 catcher in MLB (like Willy) under team control I’d love to move him.

[Post Count Padder]

Uhhhhhhhh

 

The Twins have placed outfielder Eddie Rosario on outright waivers, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. The club previously tried to find a taker for Rosario in a trade, but it wasn’t able to do so, according to Rosenthal.

 

He's been pretty good for them the past few years. I guess this doesn't bode well about our ability to trade Schwarber then?

[Cubswin11]

 

I think Vic is closer to the hitter he was in 2018 and 2020

 

Why? It's not like he was a bad hitter in the minors (.290/.371/.428 with a 17% K rate, including .332/.393/.527 in 481 AAA PAs), so what's this based on?

He hit fine in the minors. Never hit for power there and partly why I think 2019 likely wasn’t the real him. Also hits the ball on the ground a ton (50%+), which is problematic. Plus there just something watching him I don’t like on a subjective level. He’s a fine backup. I think a .240/.330/.350 type slash line is what I’d expect from him over a full season, maybe he can pop a 2019 slash line in a backup/limited role/batted ball luck. He’s a light hitting catcher with who plays adequate defense and seems to frame and call a good game. Perfectly fine as our backup, but wouldn’t want to depend on him as a full time starter if we were trying to win and if someone does I’d take advantage.

[Bertz]

The only meaningful difference between Caratini each season is HR/FB rate, which is incredibly noisy.

And given he is a part time player, that's going to be particularly noticeable. The safe assumption is that he's basically the guy from his three year averages. That's fairly unexciting, but is an above average hitter for a catcher. Combine that with modestly above average framing, and he'd be a decent starting caliber C IMO.

[Backtobanks]

 

I assume this guy was on my list of MiL FAs the Cubs should be interested in: still young, RHH capable of playing all 3 OF spots, .361 OBP in the minors, made contact early on in the MWL but started trading it for power as he moved up with a .217 IsoSLG in AAA, has some speed, two sport athlete when drafted with scholarship to play football at Illinois

 

Between he and Snelten, I'm liking Hoyer's eye for detail...Even if they don't work, they're MiL signings that should be the assumption, I like that there seems to be some nuance and attention to detail. The Snelten signing came on the heels of the Nats giving a ML contract to a MiL LH who was even better at stopping MiL HRs from happening, but Snelten throws way harder with the more impressive offspeed. Hermosillo comes in after Michael Taylor, maybe the closest true FA fit for the roster as a RHH bench CF, got his ML deal

 

 

This guy doesn't hit at all, so I'm not sure he could be a RHH bench player. Maybe a pinch runner or a defensive sub is all I see on a ML roster.

[Bertz]

 

If McCann is getting 4 years Willson is worth a stupid high amount in trade

[Cubswin11]

 

If McCann is getting 4 years Willson is worth a stupid high amount in trade

Cut out the work, Willy for McNeil with some other pieces either way makes sense. horsefeathers maybe you could do Vic+ for Mcneil if McCann is valued at that.

[Brian]

Bryant is going to be traded for an Ian Stewart type and a teams #20 prospect at the rate this offseason is going

[squally1313]

https://www.mlb.com/news/prospects-who-could-be-traded

 

Cubs: Chase Strumpf, 2B (No. 9)

 

Middle infielder might be the strength of the organization and the Cubs are in seemingly perpetual need of pitching, so perhaps Strumpf could be part of a package for a starter. He's an offensive-minded second baseman with the upside of hitting .275 with 20 homers per season.

 

I tend to agree with this just because they have so much MIF prospect depth not so far behind him. Pretty much everyone in the org around his age and experience or younger is a better defensive player except maybe Rafael Morel, who has alot of similarities to Strumpf IMO

 

Our starting second basemen OPS+ed a solid 63 last year and our actual best option has a real good shot at ending up at third base. I know we have a couple teenagers down there, but calling this a strength either seems like a stretch or is a sign of how much trouble we're in.

[CubinNY]

Lots of people are flipping out at Brett for posting the Cubs are open to trading Willie.

[Post Count Padder]

I don't want to trade Wily but it makes sense given the raises he'll get soon and #PTR.

 

Can pair Caratini with someone like Jason Castro and some other depth. Amaya will be ready in a couple years. If he goes to Toronto in a deal, get Jansen or McGuire as part of the return.

 

I'm mostly just trying to make sense of this horsefeathers offseason.

[TarzanJoeWallis]

Lots of people are flipping out at Brett for posting the Cubs are open to trading Willie.

Anyone that this comes as a surprise to was not paying attention last offseason and will likely also be shocked when Bryant is traded.

[Bertz]

Lots of people are flipping out at Brett for posting the Cubs are open to trading Willie.

 

People are fickle, and want change but they don't want to give up value. There are four people on this roster with real value: Hendricks, Yu, Willson, and Happ. (I'd guess in that order, but not positive). If you want to fundamentally improve the outlook for 2022+ while taking the smallest bite out of our chances in 2021, Willson is the obvious name to go. It's like not even close.

[Bear Cub]

If this team can't afford keeping Rizzo, Baez, and Contreras the trump loving Ricketts family should sell out and move to Florida with Bone Spurs the draft dodger.

[Bertz]

I wonder about Bryant for Kevin Keirmaier and prospects:

 

- Keirmaier makes enough that moving his salary makes adding Bryant's more realistic for the Rays

- His contract is likely a bit underwater, which should also improve the prospect return beyond a straight Bryant dral

- The Rays are absolutely flush with center fielders, so they can afford to part with Keirmaier from a competitive standpoint

- He wouldn't help the Cubs offensively, but he'd take the defense from good to maybe the best in the league

 

For me, I think it depends on payroll. Like did we *need* to cut Schwarber to get under PTR's line? Or did Jed just decide his money could be better spent elsewhere? Because with CF addressed, I think you can do the rest of a pretty solid offseason if the Schwarber money is available to be reinvested. Something like this:

 

- Bryant for Keirmaier

- Contreras for prospects

- Sign Ha Seoung Kim

- Sign Robbie Grossman

- Trade for Jon Gray

- Fill out bench/bullpen with a few Kipnis/Jeffress types

 

That IMO is a successful offseason (under the circumstances), and that's with a payroll roughly flat from where it was heading into the non-tender deadline.

[KingCubsFan]

Contreras is great, but I would be OK if Jed decided that it was better to trade him rather than giving an extension to a 28 year old catcher who relies a lot on his athleticism.

[Backtobanks]

How about Caratini and Mills to the Rockies for Gray and Ryan Vilade?

[Post Count Padder]

Lol what

 

In an out-of-the-blue move, the Angels have acquired closer Raisel Iglesias and cash from the Reds in exchange for right-hander Noe Ramirez and a player to be named later, per announcements from both teams.

[Bertz]

There's also talk the Reds are heavily shopping Sonny Gray. 85 wins might honestly win the Central this year.

[Derwood]

There's also talk the Reds are heavily shopping Sonny Gray. 85 wins might honestly win the Central this year.

 

85 wins would win you the division by 8 games

[Backtobanks]

If anyone needs a laugh, some shills came up with terrible Bryant proposals again (note: I'm not actually 100% against trading Kris Bryant, just find the players the press likes to push forward to be so trollish...Austin Riley? In an effort to strike out less? SETH ROMERO for Kris Bryant? Get a grip, shills!):

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/kris-bryant-trade-fits

 

The Boston one is particularly hilarious as they have the Cubs including Burl Carraway, but they're all only given a veneer of thoughtfulness

 

It's hard to judge Bryant's worth in this offseason, so it's hard to call trade proposals "terrible" until we get a sense of what teams are actually offering and how desperate the Cubs are to trim payroll.